Who do you tip to win the US presidential election

[Kidlicious]

I edited the post and now it is unapproved. .

Reposting:

Kid, you have absolutely no comprehension of statistics or what the one in quadrillion statement is based on. Let me educate you, and then have you ignore it:

The figure is obtained by taking the population of votes counted up to time X, and votes counted after time X (the point in time in which Trump was 'winning'). Given that the proportion of votes for each candidate in each counting period were different (earlier votes for Trump, later votes for Biden), the statistical likelihood that they constitute the same pool of voters is one in a quadrillion. This is correct. What is being assumed is that the pool of voters should be the same, when all it is doing is stating an obvious fact. More Republicans voted in person and had votes counted earlier, more Democrats voted by mail and had votes counted later - they are fundamentally different pools of voters. This is not evidence of fraud or even a statistically improbable result. It is an expected statistical occurrence.

In fact, the argument could be equally argued that the probablility of Trump leading in the early counting was evidence of fraud, as there was less than a one in quadrillion likelihood of leading by such an amount given the volume of Biden votes counted later. Such a claim would be based on the same equally absurd assumption.

Wrong. Your argument is essential equal to Mings. We have batches of ballots in favor of Biden over 90%. It doesn't matter if those were mail-in ballots or not. It is significantly unlikely that Biden received over 90% of the vote in multiple counties. There was 95% voter turn out in Philadelphia. It's very unlikely that that many people voted. There are many of these anomalies. You claiming that it can be argued that there are anomalies like this for Trump is equivalent to Ming talking about pre-election polls.

[Dauphin]

You do realise that this is not my argument. It is literally what the filing claimed. The filing that you think is your proof.

[Kidlicious]

They aren't claiming that more votes came in for Biden after they stopped counting. That's not a statistical anomaly, and yes it was expected. That's why I'm pointing out that there are no statistical anomalies for Trump even though Trump voters voted more in person. That doesn't cause statistical anomalies. Trump voters voted by mail as well.

[Dauphin]

Votes came in after they stopped counting? WTF are you drivelling on about now? You've gone off on a deranged tangent.

[Kidlicious]

Do you even understand the concept of probability?


Just because something should happen based on the odds, that doesn't mean it will happen.
Odds, statistics, and other modeling are simply tools to help predict a given event occurring. They are NOT PROOF that something happened.

What is does is provide a basis for making a reasonable decision. It is much more likely that Trump won. Therefore your opinion that Biden won is absurd.

Now combine that with the eyewitness accounts of fraud and the unwillingness of officials to allow a proper investigation and that's proof.

[Dauphin]

Kid, I strongly urge you to get an education. It will help you make better life choices.

[Kidlicious]

Kid, I strongly urge you to get an education. It will help you make better life choices.

Stop attacking the person. You're simply lying or something. You made a claim that there are statistical anomalies that show fraud in favor of Trump. Put up or shut up. But stop attacking the person. It doesn't help you.

[Kidlicious]

All statistical anomalies are in Biden's favor. To claim otherwise is baseless. Prove me wrong.




"Statistical anomalies. In Georgia, Biden overtook Trump with 89 percent of the votes counted. For the next 53 batches of votes counted, Biden led Trump by the same exact 50.05 to 49.95 percent margin in every single batch. It is particularly perplexing that all statistical anomalies and tabulation abnormalities were in Biden’s favor. Whether the cause was simple human error or nefarious activity, or a combination, clearly something peculiar

[Ming]

Stop attacking the person.

From the person that thinks calling somebody a Nazi is a valid argument...

Put up or shut up.

Please find actual physical evidence of massive fraud.
Statistics are not proof... Every thinking person knows you can come up with statistics that can indicate whatever you want.
They are NOT PROOF.
So show us some real evidence, something Trump and his minions have still yet to do after months and repeated losses...

[Kidlicious]

Come up with a statistical anomaly in Trump’s favor. You can't. You can't just come up with statistical anomalies. You are making things up again.

[Ming]

A statistical anomaly is not proof of anything.
You are the one making things up if you think that is actually PROOF of anything.
And please let know when you actually find some real proof.

[Kidlicious]

A statistical anomaly is not proof of anything.
You are the one making things up if you think that is actually PROOF of anything.
And please let know when you actually find some real proof.

It's not ONE stat an. It's many.

Again, it shows that the reasonable belief is that Biden lost. The absurd believe is that Biden won. All of you people claiming that Biden won are absurd math deniers.

[Ming]

One more time for the simple minded... It isn't PROOF OF ANYTHING.
Maybe you should go back to school and learn some more math.

Again, please let us know when you find any actual proof... Statistics prove nothing.

[Jon Miller]

All statistical anomalies are in Biden's favor. To claim otherwise is baseless. Prove me wrong.

Most statistical anomalies are in Trump's favor. Otherwise Biden would have won Florida and probably North Carolina. Look at the statistical studies done by the Economist/etc.

JM

[giblets]

What a ****show.

[Proteus_MST]

All statistical anomalies are in Biden's favor. To claim otherwise is baseless. Prove me wrong.

...

And that is not even surprising.
Trumps presidency motivated huge numbers of Democrats (and independents), even in states that seemed to be firm in the grup of the GOP,
to actually go voting instead of (as in the years before) just let their fate get dictated by the GOP voters in their state.

You saw it, for example, in the huge numbers of early voters that, in most counties, were never experienced before
(which can also be considered a statistical anomaly if compared with the presidential elections in the years before).

So I am sure that you will find lots of things that can be interpreted as statistical anomalies in Bidens favor.
(I am sure that you will even find a lot of moderate Republicans who voted in favor of heir GOP representative and senator,
but chose to vote for Joe Biden als PotUS (or maker no cross for a PotUS at all), also crating data that can be interpreted as statistical anomalies)

Insofar, I guess, Trumps presidency itself is an anomaly, as in the elections 2020 it motivated huge numbers of people on both sides of the party borders,
to not give their vote for a PotUS they liked, but rather against a PotUS they strongly disliked (or even abhorred)
(at the same time however you had fanatical Trumpists in other counties which created statistical anomalies in favor of Trump)

[Kidlicious]

It seems that it's difficult for some people to understand what a statistical anomaly is. Trump winning Florida is not a statistical anomaly (JM), because Trump had a significant chance to win Florida. Biden getting many votes (Proteus), is not a statistical anomaly, because Biden had a good chance to get more votes. These are strawman arguments. A statistical anomaly is things like batches of ballots that are over 90% for Biden, because the chance of that happening is extremely low. And there are many statistical anomalies in Bidens favor, but none in Trump’s favor.

[Ming]

It seems that it's difficult for some people to understand what a statistical anomaly is.

True dat... it's an anomaly, and proof of NOTHING.
Try again Kid when you find some actual proof.