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Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

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  • #286
    Oh wow. I didn't realize one was so gifted in Paint.

    That doesn't prove anything. Hillary has had a built in advantage since July with only one small slump before rebounding. It's just too little too late for Trump at this point. Look at your own chart. Drawing circles on a part over six months ago is not really relevant. BTW the first second and even fourth circles are terrible. They immediately coincide with a Hillary rebound. Especially after the RNC. Trump had an advantage in some republican-leaning polls for two days. Big whoop.

    A bad news cycle for her? You're kidding me right? Look at what's going on with Trump. He's the one that should worry.

    There are polls with 1-2% margin of errors in this election. Bigger samples. And they all mostly say 5-6% in favor of Hillary.

    LATimes is the ****test one. +4.5% margin of error.

    Edit: BTW my favorite poll is NBC News/SM... it polls 13,000~. It was 51-44%. 7% Lead for Hillary last time. I suspect it would have only increased since the 25th when it was last done. It's margin of error is 1.1%. Enough said. It wouldn't surprise me if her leads increases to 10% in that poll.

    And I think Gary Johnson will take away a lot more voters that could have gone to Trump than Hillary. He'll be a spoiler for Trump.
    Last edited by Giancarlo; October 3, 2016, 22:56.
    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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    • #287
      I was worried your eyesight might not be so good, since you said you couldn't see any points in the polling averages like that.

      Trump is the worst major party candidate, perhaps ever. Hillary is bad enough though that the current polling average is within the historical margin of error for polling averages.

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      • #288
        I believe in the methodology of the 538.com's Polls Plus model. Nate Silver's track record is the best of all of them. It now has Hillary at a 68.5% chance to win. It was at a low of 54.6%, but has been trending up since the debate.

        Giancarlo's political outlook is a lot more faith based than he would like to admit.
        “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

        ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

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        • #289
          No not faith based.

          Look at state polling the last three days. It mostly looks terrible for Trump.

          She and Trump are drawed even in Georgia, for example. If she wins there, Ohio would not be relevant (the race has closed up there after Trump has led by 5% on average).

          She is now 6% ahead in North Carolina. Ahead 9% (four way - lmao!) And 12% (two way) in Pennsylvania.

          Faith based you say?

          Btw, 68.5% is pretty good. If I recall, Barack was at similar odds. Betting markets have her even higher.

          And it also seems her numbers have stabilized the past couple of weeks. And she is starting to build up significant advantages.
          Last edited by Giancarlo; October 4, 2016, 12:28.
          For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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          • #290
            68.5% is pretty bad if you're running against the worst candidate ever.

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            • #291
              How much longer of this crap does the rest of the world have to put up with?
              Indifference is Bliss

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              • #292
                Originally posted by Aeson View Post
                68.5% is pretty bad if you're running against the worst candidate ever.
                Let's see... she is growing leads in almost every swing state (barring Ohio). Ohio seems to suffer from memory loss.. Didn't Trump insult the voters there? I don't Kasich even likes Trump lol. But she has closed the 5% gap already.

                320 - 350 electoral votes is what I have her at.

                And she still polls 6% behind in Texas. If she really can get Latinos mobilized... there is a chance. Texas will be like California down the line. Then Republicans will be really screwed. If she flips Texas... that would be closer to 400.

                Edit: There hasn't been a poll done in Texas in nearly a month. Since she has improved her standing, I wonder how she scores now? Perhaps closer.
                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                • #293
                  Originally posted by Aeson View Post
                  68.5% is pretty bad if you're running against the worst candidate ever.
                  There's a more than two-thirds chance that she won't lose to a total schmuck! She must be superwoman!
                  1011 1100
                  Pyrebound--a free online serial fantasy novel

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                  • #294
                    Betting markets are higher.
                    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                    • #295
                      Originally posted by N35t0r View Post
                      How much longer of this crap does the rest of the world have to put up with?
                      If Clinton wins, probably at least several decades longer. If Trump wins, maybe just a month longer!
                      Click here if you're having trouble sleeping.
                      "We confess our little faults to persuade people that we have no large ones." - François de La Rochefoucauld

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                      • #296
                        What do you have if you put Dolly Parton, Donald Trump, and Hillary Clinton in one room?
                        Two gigantic boobs and a country singer.
                        Last edited by Uncle Sparky; October 5, 2016, 15:00.
                        There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

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                        • #297
                          boobs

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                          • #298
                            oppai
                            No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

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                            • #299
                              Boobs.


                              Libraries are state sanctioned, so they're technically engaged in privateering. - Felch
                              I thought we're trying to have a serious discussion? It says serious in the thread title!- Al. B. Sure

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                              • #300
                                Unlike the election, there's something I could get excited about
                                It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                                RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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