Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Elok]

Aaaaanyway, non-Fezzies: it's hard to deny that there will be a second major party--the country would be headed for very big trouble without any opposition--and that the GOP's current demographics will not sustain it over the long haul. No? From there, it follows logically that either the GOP will form a new coalition, or the GOP will die and a different coalition (including large elements of the former GOP) will appear to challenge the Dems. These two possibilities are very similar for all practical purposes; the only question is how long it will take and which ingredients they will mix together.

My feelings as to the impending, barely-postponed crisis on the Left are another and much more tenuous matter.

[giblets]

Yes. Your party, which used shady back-door dealing to anoint one of the most unpopular candidates ever, .

The democratic party nominated the person who received the most votes and won the most pledged delegates. How is it "shady" to nominate Hillary when she got 3 million more votes than Bernie?

[Elok]

The DNC was deliberately colluding with Hillary's campaign, though they did not actually rig the vote, no.

EDIT: I may be misremembering. DNC leaks showed everybody in the DNC favoring her, and in some cases musing over smearing Sanders, but no sign of deliberate attempts at same AFAIK. There was a separate thing where they were (IIRC) raising funds to ostensibly help local Dem candidates, then promptly sending the cash to Hillary. But that may have been after the nomination, can't recall. Not that important at this point, so forget I mentioned it.

[Aeson]

I think R's will largely return to form. They can still compete if running a non-horrible candidate, especially with Hillary. There will be another recession sooner or later, and even a good D would have trouble then.

Longer term they have demographic issues, but if they drop the xenophobic/racist part of the platform they can compete for minority votes eventually.

[Aeson]

I agree that the system almost dictates that there will be two competitive parties.

[C0ckney]

C0ckney (we really don't stand to profit from argument with GC here):

One way or another, there is going to be a second party in the US, and it is going to get a significant chunk of the vote. It is possible that the GOP will suffer badly in 2020 as well, but I am inclined to doubt it simply because the Dems will have held the White House for twelve years by then. Also, it's been observed by many people that people like Hillary least when she's in the spotlight. It might be that the GOP brand will be so tarnished as to dissolve; it may have to, for the good of conservatism (or whatever incarnation thereof emerges from the ashes). And there will have to be something more open to minorities to take its place. But there's nothing apart from the GOP holding most Blacks and Latinos in the Democratic tent; they're the ***** of the Left in the same way Christians have long been the ***** of the Right. In fact, a significant portion of both are still meaningfully Christian, and such people will increasingly find no comfortable place on the Left here.

i read an article earlier this year (on forbes i think) that said 60%+ of americans don't have $500 to cover an unexpected bill. that kind of economic insecurity isn't going away, and nor are the fear and anger it generates. i think it very unlikely that hillary has any answers.

as you say, the american system makes two parties (hey, it's one more than china!) almost inevitable, but i think the populist/nationalist part of the GOP are in the ascendency, and even if trump surfers a heavy defeat, they will remain a force to be reckoned with, perhaps the most powerful grouping in the republican party. i agree with you completely that they need to attract more non-white voters, but it's hard to see how they can do that with so much of their base viscerally opposed to immigration and with a lot of racist rhetoric from the trumpistas.

[Giancarlo]

A fairly broad swath of people here have told you your opinions are highly slanted, and more importantly your way of expressing them is obnoxious, unedifying, and generally unhelpful. If I come visit your fave forum at holycrapareweliberal.org and annoy everybody there with my relatively right-wing POV, you can tell me to shut up. I will not retaliate with "NUH-UH!" Honest.

Maybe you could... back yourself up like I have been doing? There must not be much room in your world.

Aaaaanyway, non-Fezzies: it's hard to deny that there will be a second major party--the country would be headed for very big trouble without any opposition--and that the GOP's current demographics will not sustain it over the long haul. No? From there, it follows logically that either the GOP will form a new coalition, or the GOP will die and a different coalition (including large elements of the former GOP) will appear to challenge the Dems. These two possibilities are very similar for all practical purposes; the only question is how long it will take and which ingredients they will mix together.

My feelings as to the impending, barely-postponed crisis on the Left are another and much more tenuous matter.

I'd like to see two moderate parties, and the right wing fade away completely. Right now we have a center right democratic party and a far right wing republican party.

[Giancarlo]

The DNC was deliberately colluding with Hillary's campaign, though they did not actually rig the vote, no.

You have zero proof for that, and I've pressed you on that one. Show me the proof. Saying "I support her" doesn't indicate collusion.

The DNC has nothing to do with the vote count. That is left to state officials, many of which are republican. This is the same ridiculous argument people used about the vote in certain states, like in Arizona. Many polling locations were shuttered in areas that were staunchly pro-Hillary. So... if we there was no disfranchisement, Hillary would have won by an even larger margin and you definitely would have no argument at all.

[Giancarlo]

as you say, the american system makes two parties (hey, it's one more than china!) almost inevitable, but i think the populist/nationalist part of the GOP are in the ascendency, and even if trump surfers a heavy defeat, they will remain a force to be reckoned with, perhaps the most powerful grouping in the republican party. i agree with you completely that they need to attract more non-white voters, but it's hard to see how they can do that with so much of their base viscerally opposed to immigration and with a lot of racist rhetoric from the trumpistas.

SO name me some of the populist Senators and Representatives that have a shot at winning. Name me them. The most powerful grouping in the republican party isn't them. The issue here is that the republican party stupidly ran 17 candidates. If they had less, Trump wouldn't have got anywhere. And they were already anti-immigration and racist before... and that was amplified with the Tea Party. Remember them? Another right wing populist grouping that faded into obscurity. All they do now is cause problems in the House of Representatives. Many tea party supporters simply morphed into supporting Trump. It's repackaged manure.

They simply aren't going to be attracting non-white voters because the majority of their argument is about anti-immigration and white power.

Minorities of all colors, backgrounds and sexuality don't tend to forget these things like some in the mainstream. Minorities tend to be more politically active and certain messages can resonate for generations.

[pchang]

but if they drop the xenophobic/racist part of the platform they

won't be Republicans any more.

[C0ckney]

The issue here is that the republican party stupidly ran 17 candidates. If they had less, Trump wouldn't have got anywhere.

a BAM and a particularly stupid one at that. there were 17 candidates representing just about shade of republican opinion, and trump won even when they combined against him. the most obvious and indeed correct explanation is that he won because what he represents is most in tune with republican voters.

And they were already anti-immigration and racist before... and that was amplified with the Tea Party. Remember them? Another right wing populist grouping that faded into obscurity. All they do now is cause problems in the House of Representatives. Many tea party supporters simply morphed into supporting Trump. It's repackaged manure.

different groups with different agendas. the tea party weren't populist, unless we're taking populist to mean something giancarlo doesn't like.

[Giancarlo]

a BAM and a particularly stupid one at that. there were 17 candidates representing just about shade of republican opinion, and trump won even when they combined against him. the most obvious and indeed correct explanation is that he won because what he represents is most in tune with republican voters.

No. That's not what happened. There were 17 candidates with many of them splitting the votes and many of them representing the same view as the next guy. You need to follow politics a little better. He often didn't break a 35-40% threshold in many of these states. He didn't break that until the other guys started dropping out like flies. If it was a two man race, it have been far more contested even if he did eventually come out on top. Stick to UK politics. You even admitted you know little about what goes on in this country.

Your lazy tablet styled arguments and inability to use the shift key just shows you have nothing.

different groups with different agendas. the tea party weren't populist, unless we're taking populist to mean something giancarlo doesn't like.

Bull****. Total utter bull****.

[Giancarlo]

won't be Republicans any more.

This.

The xenophobia and racism is a key part of their platform. IF they drop that, they lose their core supporters.

They will be forever a small portion of even the GOP with the way demographics are changing in this country.

By the way, when Texas flips to democrat... we won't be having these discussions anymore.

California is the future. Look at our political landscape. That is what the rest of the country will look like in 20 years (overall) and what Texas could look like even sooner. We are the 5th/6th largest economy in the world (if independent) and are governed effectively with a marginalized republican party. That's the future.

[Elok]

Yeah, you non-shift-key-hitting bastard, you've got nothing. Bull****.

[Aeson]

won't be Republicans any more.

Except 60+ years ago the R's were the ones with a more progressive view on race and the D's were the clansmen. The parties have switched sides on certain issues over the years while maintaining their labels. Free trade is one issue where they look like they might be swapping positions now.