Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Bereta_Eder]

And perhaps we can make a generalized comment here

again with the audacity of globilization when it thought it could actually settle in

Greece. A far left wing party took power. Half its people were former communists (and underwent a rather shocking reality adjustment that still doesn't make them the same with the rest)

UK has left the EU kind of like elvis was leaving the buildings.
elvis was fat and the only enjoyement in his life was peanut butter and sleeping pills (altruistically given to him by a greek doctor btw)

Russia, elected putin

and now the US is going to elect trump

[Elok]

Like I said, I've always been more worried about Trump's supporters than Trump himself. It'd be very hard for Trump's successor as crypto-fuhrer to be less competent than Trump, and he's got his base all ready. A demagogue who isn't totally ignorant of all policy and doesn't have fifty years of sleazy baggage could hit Hillary pretty hard.

[kentonio]

Like I said, I've always been more worried about Trump's supporters than Trump himself. It'd be very hard for Trump's successor as crypto-fuhrer to be less competent than Trump, and he's got his base all ready. A demagogue who isn't totally ignorant of all policy and doesn't have fifty years of sleazy baggage could hit Hillary pretty hard.

Which is why I'm still glad Trump is the nominee not Cruz. That ****er really is scary.

[Lorizael]

I'm not sure that we should regard a large chunk of the electorate as dangerous. It strikes me that they may have beliefs that make it easier for them to fall prey to a demagogue, but not that they're bad people themselves.

[-Jrabbit]

Agreed. So let's go with "stupid" and/or "gullible."

[Boris Godunov]

Russia, elected putin

and now the US is going to elect trump

The state of Russian democracy when Putin rose to power is vastly, vastly different than it currently is in the U.S. Also, Putin hid most of his dictatorial, fascist tendencies pretty effectively until he was already in power. Trump has not been nearly so savvy.

No, Trump is not going to win. Every single indicator in U.S. election history is pointing to his crushing defeat on Nov. 8. No candidate has ever recovered from this kind of polling deficit at this stage in the race. Clinton is running rings around Trump in terms of field operation--vital to getting voters to turn out--and the early voting/absentee ballot request numbers so far are already starkly in Clinton's favor as compared to even Obama in 2008 and 2012. The electoral college map is so daunting for Trump that it is virtually impossible for him to win now. Current election models show Clinton with about a 85-90% chance of winning, and the ONLY reason Trump has a 10-15% shot would be if polling was universally off by an unprecedented margin. Bear in mind that, unlike with the Brexit, U.S. presidential elections are the single biggest subject of polling, and the accuracy of these polls are pretty well understood.

A Putinesque dictator could eventually come to power in the U.S., sure. But not within the immediate future, and it would have to be someone a hell of a lot smarter and savvier than Trump.

[Bereta_Eder]

Could be, it would be the mother load of all false estimates if polls of 85% fell out and were wrong.

I admit there is like 5% coverage of that here, plus all debates are transmitted live in 4 o 'clock at night so noone can watch the comedy unless he's umemployed so maybe few can.

But, I have to point out that polls that were proclaimed as decisive both in the greek elections, in the greek referendum and the brexit fell flat on their faces.


a 85% poll going wrong would have to be something... extraordinary indeed but it's not unprecedended

[Elok]

I'm not sure that we should regard a large chunk of the electorate as dangerous. It strikes me that they may have beliefs that make it easier for them to fall prey to a demagogue, but not that they're bad people themselves.

All people (or nearly all) are dangerous, under the right circumstances. The fact that they were willing to take a chance on Trump (when many of them, when questioned, allowed that he was dishonest, immoral, arrogant, self-serving, corrupt, etc.) shows that a lot of people are in a dangerous mood. Now, if given the chance, a sufficiently charismatic and well-intentioned GOP candidate could bring them back into some kind of sane consensus. But one wonders where that candidate is and what he was doing when Trump was around. At any rate, such a candidate would necessarily have to coax these people into a more patient and compromising spirit, which is a harder sell than what a smarter Trump would have to do.

[Elok]

OTOH, you have things like Clinton's right-hand man at one point explicitly planning to undermine the authority of the RCC hierarchy, which shows that they're not all paranoid; someone actually is (or was), in fact, out to get them.

[ZEE]

Elok is a nerd.

[Boris Godunov]

OTOH, you have things like Clinton's right-hand man at one point explicitly planning to undermine the authority of the RCC hierarchy, which shows that they're not all paranoid; someone actually is (or was), in fact, out to get them.

So what? Looks to me like they're hoping to get grass-roots movements that will drive reform within the RCC so it's not so blindingly regressive. Why wouldn't progressives advocate such a thing? It's not like he's advocating jailing bishops.

[Aeson]

Trump is accomplishing amazing things!

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/12/politics/hillary-clinton-utah-poll/index.html

The poll shows Clinton and Trump tied at 26 percent, McMullin with 22 percent and Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 14 percent if the election were held today. Y2 Analytics surveyed 500 likely Utah voters over landlines and cellphones Oct. 10-11 The poll has a plus or minus 4.4 percent margin of error.

Also, a majority of voters statewide and specifically Mormons, as well as a near majority of Republicans, say Trump should drop out of the race, according to the poll.

I'm not sure if this can hold very long. A potential Hillary win might scare voters into going back to Trump, but with McMullin being close it could embolden more to leave Trump (and/or Johnson) for another conservative candidate ... and I'm sure the news will increase awareness among less informed voters that there is another viable option.

[Giancarlo]

Neither I or my wife will be voting for Trump...

Interesting opinion piece in the Chicago Tribune today. Illinois will go for Hillary so they recommend that Repubs vote for the green candidate.
The Trib already has endorsed the Libertarian candidate. Their logic is that the endorsement will probably get the Libs 5% of the vote. And now they want to get the greens to 5%.

This way, both parties will be given full party status in future Illinois' elections. They will be able to run a full slate of candidates without jumping through all the hoops they have had to in the past.

I like it. So I guess instead of voting for Mickey Mouse, I will vote for the green candidate for prez... What's her name again

The one with an arrest warrant lol? Jill... I forget.

[Giancarlo]

I think Trump could possibly be in serious danger in Texas now.

Anyways... that slime ball snake thought he could pull a fast on Bill Clinton. Don't mess with Bill or you'll get burned.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-unearthed-footage-trump-says-of-10-year-old-i-am-going-to-be-dating-her-in-10-years/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-women-groped-allegations_us_57febdcde4b0162c0439d535

The part about him pointing at a 10 year old and saying he'll date her in 10 years is ****ing sick.

He groped an airline passenger and kissed a receptionist on the mouth too.

This is what happens when you play with fire and the floodgates are officially open.

This won't be the end of it. And you thought I was joking? This is all over the media now. OF course, the core Trump supporters will denounce it as liberal propaganda. Well, the video of him pointing at a 10 year old isn't.

And it's not only going to be about girls and women he assaulted. There is something more serious coming out...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/new-york-attorney-general-opens-inquiry-into-trump-foundation-228125

This was from about a month ago, but I would expect more on it.

The ship is sinking and his poll numbers are plummeting in multiple states. This loser could win up behind bars at the end of the day. He should have just stayed out of politics... but that ego would not permit it. And some neutral emails about Hillary won't do a thing. The Russians thought leaking one about her being super supportive of LGBT people would change the election lol. Sorry, but this is the US... not Russia.

[Giancarlo]

It amazes me that roughly 40% of married women are saying they will vote for Trump.

Exactly zero of the women in my life are voting for him (AFAIK), and that includes a significant number of Republicans.

Luckily overall I think now 70% of women should be going for Hillary at this point.

With all these sexual assault allegations coming out right now like a tidal wave... some rather sick stuff.

By the way, Mitt Romney won the votes of married women by either high single digits or low double digits (can't recall exactly). The fact that Trump is behind in that field shows how ****ed he is.

Nate Silver on women voters:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/

Men stay home. LOL!!! Kidding.

Now Hillary is even with him among men. Even with white men.