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indeed. 
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Another Utah poll confirming that McMullin gaining... 30% Trump, 29% McMullin, and 25% Clinton.
If McMullin were to win, it would be the first time a nonaligned candidate has won a state since 1968 I believe. This is Trumps state to lose. One state he was expected to win. A confirmed battleground state now. It means even fewer electoral votes.
Oh and Texas continues to show signs of being a battleground state too.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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This is poly. If you take anything seriously here, I fear for your health. I like you and don't want you to suffer any type of poly induced ailment.Originally posted by Lorizael View PostFor there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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Now the rats are scurrying away from the sinking ship...
Trump has seriously underinvested in swing states, and even ones that show a close race may be tilting towards Hillary. Even Iowa at this point.
BTW, I forgot about Palin-Land. Alaska is close. Trump only leads +1% and +3% in that state. Even closer than Iowa.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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c is for cookieTo us, it is the BEAST.Comment
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****in' A. Cookie, cookie cookie starts with C. That good enough for me.Originally posted by Sava View PostComment
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The world is a terrible place. If you're not suffering, you're doing something wrong.Originally posted by Giancarlo View PostClick here if you're having trouble sleeping.
"We confess our little faults to persuade people that we have no large ones." - François de La RochefoucauldComment
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Me like the letter CI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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Roslin/Baltar should be an independant ticket.BlahComment
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Looks like Trump is back in the lead in the polls:
Libraries are state sanctioned, so they're technically engaged in privateering. - Felch
I thought we're trying to have a serious discussion? It says serious in the thread title!- Al. B. SureComment
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Tracking polls are pretty useless and being in the margin of error in one doesn't help him, when he continues to be far behind in key states. And in the past two elections, tracking polls were usually the worst set.
TIPP and Rasmussen have had problems with sampling all year long, and LATimes has finally admitted their sampling is no good. They said one Trump supporter was throwing the whole sample off and he was dropped.
So Hillary is very much in the lead.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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Nate Silver discusses why tracking polls are outliers and will continue in being as such. TIPP is no exception.
The other more reputable polling firms have not yet released their polling data. Just days ago, Fox News had her six points ahead even. Others had her 6-11% ahead.
Edit: wrong article...
I will keep the other one there as its interesting.
And just to elaborate why tracking polls are useless... Hillary continues to be in a strong lead In Virginia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Sometimes by high single and low double digits.
And Rasmussen have Trump 1-2% ahead, so that means she is ahead as they always oversample Republicans.
Watch these tracking polls move closer to the other polls a week before to cover their own ass (err reputation rather!).
Second edit: TIPP was not the most accurate poll in 2012. People get it confused with PEW. TIPP also has a very small sample for a national poll.Last edited by Giancarlo; October 21, 2016, 11:17.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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I'm assuming Fez just had a little fit--not gonna bother looking--but I tend to look at the RCP aggregate, not individual polls.Originally posted by Thoth View PostComment
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Um I simply disputed the validity of tracking polls. Using the same sample all the time doesn't help.Originally posted by Elok View Post
I look at state polling more now. The popular vote is simply more for vanity.
I also look at what Nate Silver says.
No fit. I know she is way ahead. And she polls strongly in key states, and is now coming up even in Ohio (where she has a superior ground team so the polls could be understating her advantage).
Here is a tip... You could be less of an ass towards me and read my posts.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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That debates are expected to move the electoral needle at all should itself be seen as symptomatic of deep problems, as I have never seen a presidential debate that was not basically a high-stakes version of the stupid dick-waving feuds we have on here. They certainly don't indicate anything about governing ability. If your feelings about a candidate can be shifted by how readily they quip or hold an attractive facial expression, then you have probably not matured all that much since high school. It's kind of weird how passively we accept that.Comment
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