Should the Republican Party Bow Out of 2016?

[Felch]

It's not doomed but its in the worst shape it's been in for decades. If you don't see that, go look at some polls.

If you think polls three years before an election matter, then you're obviously kentonio.

[kentonio]

Also, hillary clinton's a ****ty politician. I don't know why anyone harbors fantasies to the contrary. Her campaign in 2008 was a shitshow, and the only time she actually had a major policy initiative, she cost the Clinton administration both houses of Congress (Hillarycare). Put her up against a decent GOP ex-Governor and she's fighting an uphill battle.

You are very funny.

Kentonio, your understanding of US politics rivals Ben Kenobi's. It would not have taken much for Romney to win, and YOU'RE deluded if you don't think Scott Walker is a major threat to the democrats. Democrats who are paying attention think he is a major threat to the democrats.

I've lost count of how many times you've used that 'you don't understand US politics' line, yet you keep being wrong time after time. I suppose the GOP are going to sweep the Senate in 14 too?

The GOP is in better shape than it has been in decades, actually. Don't look at the polls. Look at how much of the government they actually control. One house of congress and something like 30 states. They don't have the white house or the senate, true, but in the 80s it had been decades since they had both houses of congress and most state legislatures were solidly blue.

[Boris Godunov]

Aren't you worried that you are using the same flawed reasoning that made you believe that Romney would win the presidency despite the preponderance of evidence to the contrary at the time? I'd be more worried about that than any political election.

He was convinced on election night that Romney was going to win Virginia, which shows he doesn't even understand politics in his home state, much less nationally.

[kentonio]

If you think polls three years before an election matter, then you're obviously kentonio.

Good thing there isn't a pretty significant election happening next year then..

[DaShi]

If you think polls three years before an election matter, then you're obviously kentonio.

He's using the data available now. It's reasonable to make a speculation aware that it could change. However, looking the data now and claiming that the opposite will happen isn't as wise.

[DaShi]

He was convinced on election night that Romney was going to win Virginia, which shows he doesn't even understand politics in his home state, much less nationally.

There's a good chance that Virginia could remain democratic in 2016, unless McAuliffe completely ****s it up. Which is possible.

[Elok]

This far out, I don't know that it's helpful to speculate. I remember thinking, when the TP appeared in 2009, that they would eviscerate their own party then quietly fade away after two years, tops. I don't think anybody expected that they'd still be around and a major force now, well into Obama's second term.

[Sava]

The GOP is not in terrible shape, or doomed, or anything of the sort. Romney very nearly won the last election

so much wrong with this... pretty sure it's a troll

[Captain ******* Kirk]

The President knows that if Hilary runs, she's guaranteed to win.

But I've said it all along, and will keep saying it: If Hillary runs, she wins. In a landslide, or pretty close to it.

Put me on record now: Hillary will run in 2016 and will lose. She missed her chance.

[Sava]

Put me on record now: Hillary will run in 2016 and will lose. She missed her chance.

If she does lose, it will be in the democratic primary. The dems could run a stuffed monkey in 2016 and still win.

[Captain ******* Kirk]

If she does lose, it will be in the democratic primary. The dems could run a stuffed monkey in 2016 and still win.

You have it the wrong way around. Clinton will easily win the Democratic nomination (since the Dems have no bench to challenge her) and will lose to the GOP in the general unless the Republicans really do nominate some extremist like Ted Cruz (which they won't because the GOP invariably chooses boring establishment types like Bush/Dole/McCain/Romney). It's extremely difficult for any party to hold the White House for three consecutive terms and the Dems sure as **** aren't going to do so after the rolling cluster**** that is Obama's second term.

[Elok]

I pretty much stopped following politics at all closely a while back, when it became too depressing. With that said, I don't think the GOP is going to die, or anything. I think they're going to have to rethink their strategy, and putting down the reactionary Tea Party movement will be a part of that. I'm actually interested to see what they do in the next couple of years. They'll just keep losing if they try to depend on their old core; the best they can do is cripple the country, as they're doing now. But that core isn't going to go away entirely, so they're going to have to find a message the old core can accept while still appealing to some other folks. If that has to be done by putting up a Tea Party favorite in 2016 and getting beaten bloody, well, that will be part of the process. However, they still have more than a year to figure out it ain't going to work and try for a moderate. Who knows? Not me.

[Captain ******* Kirk]

The GOP is going to make gains in Congress in 2014 and win the presidency in 2016 if they keep their current strategy. Ya'll are reading way too much into the completely normal shift of White House control back to the Democrats in 2008. Power will shift back to the GOP in 2016, then back to the Dems in 2024 unless the next GOP president is terrible enough to squander the power of incumbency and fails to win a second term.

[SlowwHand]

As you may have guessed, the White House is just as excited about the 2016 as anyone. Can you blame them? Obama is clearly suffering from presidential fatigue that all second termers eventually feel; realizing that the latter four years are the same as the first, only you get less done. So we get to this:

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2013/11/carney-all-potential-gop-candidates-should-run-176519.html?hp=r15

The President knows that if Hilary runs, she's guaranteed to win.

You fool.

[Ben Kenobi]

They have a 50/50 chance of winning, it looks like. They nominated Romney last time around, so it's not like they're doomed to nominate a nutjob like Bachmann. Most of the potential Republican candidates are terrible, but it seems like most presidential candidates in general are terrible.

Romney was a terrible candidate, so was McCain. I can see the republicans doing the exact same thing in 2016 - because it seems like McConnell and Boehner prefer being the minority party to being the majority party.

It's really simple. You don't chase the independents by offering everything the democrats do just a little bit more slowly.