Is the US economy in recession?

[MrFun]

So you've never worked at it and had to pay your bills with a full time minimum wage job. I rest my case.

I have, and still am. I found out that with my monthly expenses working at a minimum wage job, or one that pays a dollar more than minimum wage, that I cannot afford to live on my own. I can't even afford to rent an efficiency apartment.

[MrFun]

YAY! Unemployment is going down, and number of Americans with jobs is on the rise.

[MRT144]

True, but if the best he can do is tread water after 4 years, he's clearly not the answer.

How long did the Great Depression last? No president, of any political affiliation would be able to "turn it around" in 4 years after the debacle of 2007-2008. Things don't happen that quickly.

The best argument you can make is that Obama wasn't a factor in stabilizing the situation and anyone that could fog a mirror would be in the same situation. And I would buy that for a dollar.

[MRT144]

Funny I don't see you mentioning the Senate that voted his budget down 99-0.

So basically you're holding him accountable for something that no one would let him do. Brilliant. He should just become a rubber stamp president and succumb to the will of congress.

[DinoDoc]

How long did the Great Depression last?

The recession ended 6 months into his term. This is supposed to be a recovery.

[MRT144]

The recession ended 6 months into his term. This is supposed to be a recovery.

And are things not better now than they were 6 months into his term?

[DinoDoc]

Given the decline in median income and increase in poverty over the course of his term?

[Ben Kenobi]

Again, you are ignoring that my original statement and all further explanations have already noted that there have been times when it's not the case due to reasons other than the minimum wage.

So you're conceding the point that the US isn't at 'near full employment?' Finally. Glad to see you backpedalling and claiming, "oh I never said it. "

And the result has been in the past 6 years that wages have dropped across the board, but minimum wage has stayed the same. No. Minimum wage has actually increased in that timeframe.

Since 2009 - it's stayed the same and wages have dropped overall.

6 years ago minimum wage was lagging behind the inflation adjusted trend. Now it's jumped back up to be pretty close to the trend. Yes, that means it's more attractive today, as do the lack of higher paying jobs. It still isn't attractive enough (to convince people to take it ... not always a good thing) to people who would prefer unemployment while they keep looking for a better job, or welfare.

Now it's well ahead of where it should be compared to what other people are making, because everyone else is making less and they are making more. Unsurprisingly, the result of this is increased unemployment.

This is actually irrelevant to the question of whether minimum wage reduces employment or not.

Once again, yes, it's pertinent. People working minimum wage jobs are affected by cuts to the hours that they work. Cutting their hours is much harsher than cutting the minimum wage.

You're just saying more people are going to want to work at minimum wage jobs, and so those who have them now will face more competition for hours.

And as a result, the individual hours are getting cut. Finally, you're starting to get it now. And it only took like 10 posts! Labour oversupply -> fewer hours for minimum wage workers.

was to have it pegged to inflation.

Which is the same as 'raising the minimum wage'. Thank you. You're assuming that the two are independent variables. Newsflash - they ain't.

Minimum wage has ~0 effect on employment.

Sowell has shown otherwise. Now, if you have evidence for your contention, great, lets see it. Otherwise, let's move onto points that haven't already been shown to be false.

You can't show that any of that has to do with minimum wage reducing employment.

Christ, it's already been shown - and not by me. Let's see some evidence to support your contention.

And you still can't wrap your head around the difference between a complete sentence, and a sentence fragment.

Perhaps if you made an argument somewhere, I'd feel compelled to write one.

You were the one who brought it up

LOL - you're the one who went off on your tangent as to how Europeans are evil imperialists. I ask again - would Filipinos prefer Japanese occupation?

The workforce today is smaller than it was in 2007.

2007 wasn't the last bump to minimum wage, even though that was when it was decided on.

Um, that's not a rebuttal. Arguing that this policy 'has zero effect', should indicate that the economy should recover back to where it was in 2007, after a couple years. This is how most recessions work. Instead it's been 6. Which is why I'm arguing that the raise is just one factor among many that are hurting the economy and stalling the recovery.

I'm sure there are some backwaters in Texas, as in most states.

I'm simply saying that the labor policies that work for NYC do not work for Texas - ergo the concept of a 'federal minimum wage' is flawed. The standard of living is lower in Texas - I'm not sure why you perceive this as a negative. It's not, far from it.

productive as employers in New Mexico can.

Haha, my current landlord is from New Mexico. He says New Mexico is a dump. He left to come here because there's not much work in New Mexico.

the actual bigotry you were planning on spewing.

New Mexico - beautiful state in terms of terrain. Economy-wise, it's a dump. I love it how the Texas hater is striving with all his might to keep on hating on Texas.

I have no idea what you're referring to here, other than some delusion you have as to NYC's ability to dictate federal minimum wage to the rest of the country. Why you pick them rather than the hippy northwest or San Francisco is beyond me.

NYC is one of the areas that is pushing for a rise in the federal minimum wage - for exactly this reason.

You already said you made more than minimum wage. We know you don't have children to support. You aren't poor. Stop whining about how poor you are and recognize how lucky you actually are to have been essentially born into a standard of living that's higher than 99%+ of the people throughout history have had.

Ahh, yeah, mighty whitey, eh. Question for you- what percentage of deaf people graduate with a degree?

It's just floating with inflation (lagging then catching up over and over again) the last 40 years.

Again, what this will do is push up the price of everything such that the minimum wage will continue to fall further behind. They'd be better off with no increase at all. Inflation is the greatest enemy of those who make the minimum wage. Policies that bake-in inflation increases are sort of like asking - "Please can you burn my money for me, tyvm?" And remember - it's not just affecting the pay of those who make minimum wage - it has much greater benefits for the unions. On a dollar per dollar basis - a rise of 10 cents, around 80 percent of the total dollar value goes to unions, who often make 3x and more minimum wage. This is great for unions - bad for everyone else.

ignorant douchebag

I have a pretty simple rule that's served me well. The person who believes that the person who is arguing against him is an ignorant douchebag, generally is the one who's wrong about the subject. Hey - if you have an argument, you'd let the argument stand for itself.

readily observable facts

Which is why Aeson - economist extraordinare is arguing with Thomas Sowell and calling him an ignorant douchebag? Speaks volumes.

Food is not a "durable good". That was a good one

So you concede the point at hand and fight the semantic bull****. Moving on, since you've conceded the essential point that food is going up at 3.5 percent in 2012. Thanks.

If you're suggesting what you've suggested before ... that we need deflation

I'm saying that the market itself is trying to deflate, due to decreased demand. Fighting this deflation is futile. China is already well on the same path as Japan and that is going to have a huge effect on the overall worldwide demand over the next 10-20 years. The US should be ok if they can escape the Obama years without getting crippled by structural debt. Another 4 years of spending what Obama has spent already will cripple the US for a long time.

It would destroy a great deal of wealth

That wealth is going to get destroyed. If deflation is permitted to occur now - the economy will burn off all the malinvestments and then recover rather quickly. By forestalling it, the deflation is going to be that much more stronger once all the inflationary push is finished.

Entirely due to reasons that have nothing to do with the minimum wage.

Nope, raising the minimum wage into the teeth of the recession was the worst possible decision that the Obama administration could make. The best decision was to let it be. Helped the unions though, so go unions!

You are the one who wanted to take it back to 1450 and make it about why we were in the position to be the lucky bastards sooner than other cultures, and in doing so specifically mentioned the Philippines in regards to Spanish colonization.

Then why didn't the Philippines sail to Spain? As I said, Spain made certain decisions that put them into the position that they could take advantage of these things. The Philippines, had far more people back then, but made different decisions. Decisions have far-ranging consequences, Aeson. Imagine if Spain had kept the Philippines during the Second world war? Would you really prefer to be in the same spot Indonesia is now?

Keeping people from needlessly suffering is always better than doing nothing.

Suffering is sometimes necessary. Christ suffered for all of us, and chose to suffer. Avoiding necessary suffering is part of why we are in this mess.

Denying minimum wage's potential good effects

I side with Sowell's arguments, sorry. He makes a pretty persuasive case that the minimum wage is actually harmful, not helpful.

Of course a Christian like you wouldn't understand this, since ignoring everything Jesus actually taught is seemingly what's important to you.

Jesus told me that it's a sin to take from other people in order to do good works. Charity is voluntary. The state should never take from other people in order to try to do good. The state has obligations (national defense, highways, postal office, etc), that do need to be funded, and the best way to fund these things is through voluntary spending (ie, a sales tax). The TX AG and the TX governor agree with me on this. Having had a taste of real freedom, it's hard to give it up.

Not really. Obama was a Senator when the bill was signed into law. I don't know if he did anything significant in regards to it, other than being a D and voting like all the other Ds. Bush was president when the The Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 was signed into law. (He did something right there by getting tax cuts for small businesses included in the bill.)

I thought you just said it wasn't 2007. Thanks for conceding that point.

You have a job. Yes, it's harder for you to get one because of your disability, but you didn't let that stop you.

Well, I worked hard to get to where I am. I can't say I know any other disabled students that were in my class with me. I was the only one. It took me 3 years to finally find a job in my profession, and I had to move to Texas to get the job. And I'm still not where I need to be.

Reversing who gets it by allowing them to undercut each other on selling their labor doesn't change unemployment

I don't see why we can't let people work for whatever they are willing to work. Especially people with disabilities who otherwise don't get hired.

The only real effect (probably still unlikely) your desired change would have in this specific example is wage deflation.

Personally, I just want to keep the wages where they are now until the budget gets under control. Especially budget rises that contribute to the increase in public sector funding for unions. That's what really has my panties in a bunch. We need to be cutting the public sector, not giving them fixed wage increases.

They are were not the increases to minimum wage.

Yes, it's a bad policy that rewards the wrong people.

I was at part time on minimum wage income level. Yes, full time on minimum wage is generally better than part time on minimum wage. (In some cases it's not. Like for young singles who'd rather just cover their living expenses and then use their extra time for something more valuable to them than minimum wage.) Lowering the minimum wage and getting someone on full-time is not necessarily a good thing, and if there is some semblance of similarity in the cuts then getting your hours cut is usually preferable.

I was parttime and having to pay the bills, I would have been in heaven with a fulltime minimum wage job. Instead I had to fight for the hours I did get, which is a pain in the ass.

[Ben Kenobi]

So basically you're holding him accountable for something that no one would let him do. Brilliant. He should just become a rubber stamp president and succumb to the will of congress.

I'm saying that blaming the obstruction on everyone but the Senate and Harry Reid is transparent bull****.

[Ben Kenobi]

How long did the Great Depression last? No president, of any political affiliation would be able to "turn it around" in 4 years after the debacle of 2007-2008. Things don't happen that quickly.

So Obama is to today as Hoover was to the Great Depression. Excellent analogy, sir.

[Dinner]

The recession ended 6 months into his term. This is supposed to be a recovery.

Most big property asset bubbles leave a hang over of at least a decade especially if the local laws don't allow people to declare bankruptcy to reset the value of the mortgage to fair market value. Which is exactly what we should be doing.

[Dinner]

Yup, that's what he needed to do. Oh, why oh why didn't Obama go out and hire a hundred thousand more people. *sigh*

Total government employment has been falling steadily since Obama took office. The private sector has been growing steadily but the net jobs figures were depressed due to lay offs at all levels of government which has been going on for years. To compare, yes, Reagan, Bush Sr, and Bush Jr all massively increased Federal hiring in order to help lower the unemployment rate. Something Republicans have been refusing to do for the black guy even though they have ALWAYS done it for a Republican president.

[Dinner]

The recession ended 6 months into his term. This is supposed to be a recovery.

Like the US lives in isolation from the rest of the world.

I guess you haven't heard that China has had a massive slow down while the EU jumped off a cliff. Your partisan hackery knows no bounds.

[MrFun]

Given the decline in median income and increase in poverty over the course of his term?

Since when do you care about the poverty rate?

[Aeson]

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