UK General Election- May 6th

[MikeH]

It's putting pressure on the Conservatives, turning it into a bidding war. They've already got more concessions out of them on electoral reform due to the threat of a Labour deal.

[Krill]

I disagree with your assessment completely i'm afraid. the tories have put a lot of political capital into a con/lib coalition and to break it after a few months would look very bad. the only chance of a stable government which can last any length of time is a tory/liberal coalition. all other options lead very quickly to a second election. those claiming otherwsie are just ignoring the reality.

A Tory/Lib coalition won't last for more than a few months though, because the moment LD start saying "We aren't supporting that, we aren't supporting this, you can drop the Thatcherite agenda" The conservatives will tell them they aren't working in the National Interest, and dissolve parliament. It all comes down to why the coalition falls apart, and it is always going to be blamed on the Lib Dems. The Tories know this, the Lib Dems know this, and this is why so many people have said that the policies of both parties are not that compatible.

Then the Lib Dems lose votes in the next general election from all those voters that viewed them as an alternative to Labour, and then it's another 80 years before they are electable again. They absolutely can not afford that, which is why they are more than likely to go with Labour. This was pretty much inevitable from last Thursday: The Tories would not give electoral reform, and they do not have the right (and necessarily the will) to a minority government, and they were always capable of forcing a second election, and winning that one.

This is why everyone said Lib Dems were so screwed - if the Tories had 10 less seats, it would be different, but right now they can't do an awful lot. If they can get AV+, somehow, then they are sorted. STV would be an amazing achievement. PR will have to wait. Any failure to reform the electoral system means we will end up with a 2 party system for the next 20 years.

And MikeH speaks the truth it is standard negotiating tactics for 3 part deals with 1 king maker. If the Lib Dems didn't do this, the Tories wouldn't have to offer anything important (really, combined with the possibility of a second election, they only have to offer token promises, get the Lib Dems to reject, get the second election and win the majority, and problem solved). Clegg isn't being sneaky, he is playing smart.

[Krill]

And yes, I admit that I'm a partisan hack: I don't care what happens so long as we get electoral reform. I like the some of the Tory policies, more so than Labours', and the Lib Dems are nuts on a couple of issues, but until we get electoral reform I'm voting Lib Dem for as long as I'm in this contituency.

[C0ckney]

that's certainly possible, which is why i said it's the only chance of a stable government. it all depends though on events, will the tories try to push a right-wing agenda? i'm not sure, i think that cameron has used this to clip the wings of his parties right-wingers (who were starting to carp about various things before he made the offer to the liberals). i think it's pretty clear that a lot of right-wing stuff like the tax break for married couples is not going to happen. if the tories put forward anything too provocative in order to break up the coalition, then i think people will see through that and punish them at the next election. i think that both parties will have to compromise on a number of things, and that will include putting a lot of stuff on hold until after the next election.

it's also worth remembering that this isn't just about the future electoral fortunes of the liberal democrats. the country is broke, the vultures in the markets are circling and if the new government can't agree on a credible plan to get our finances back in order then they will descend. being in government means taking touch decisions and not just talking about pet issues. the liberals have a chance at being in power for the first time since the second world war. this is a chance for them to gain some credibility as a serious party of government and they risk making themselves look like they are only interested in electoral reform and not the other issues facing the country.

[C0ckney]

and yes mike makes a good point, but there comes a time when you've got to realise that there's nothing more to be gained and you need to make your mind up.

and i'm not a party hack, although i will admit to some bias against labour. i voted liberal, but the current financial situation is serious and the coutry has to come first.

[OzzyKP]

It seems that the rank & file Tories are more behind a coalition with the LibDems than Labour. Considering how narrow the majority would be of a Labour-Liberal-Green-SNP-Alliance-etc it would be far more likely for that government to fall because of a revolt of one of the minor parties or a disguntled backbencher than a Con-Lib coalition. Plus, with Gordon Brown stepping down there would be an unelected PM and a cobbling together of a bunch of parties who most people will recognize do not have the popular will behind them, they will all be punished in the next election.

The best thing for the LibDems is to go with the Conservatives. If they are offering a referendum on AV, offering cabinet seats, presumably offering plenty more, I think it is the best deal on the table and has the potential to last a full term.

I hear also that Labour is not willing to budge on civil liberties issues, so not only would Lib-Lab be a weak, unstable coalition, it'd be the wrong direction for the country.

Liberal-Conservative coalition with AV referendum.

[Krill]

I think I'm just pessimistic that the Tory media will be bale to persuade most people to vote Tory then.

[OzzyKP]

Another issue is that if PR happens (and potentially AV as well) these kinds of hung parliaments will happen pretty much every election. If now, with everything seemingly in its favor, Libs are unable to work with the Tories, then it is unlikely they will be able to work with them in the future. Which would look to many as though any electoral reform would guarantee a permanent lib-lab coalition. Which would look to many as far *less* democratic than what exists now.

I'm sure many, even non-conservatives, would vote against such a referendum were it put to the voters. Forming a coalition now with the Conservatives would demonstrate that there is no natural coalition Lib-Lab coalition and there would be nothing to fear in electoral reform.

(also, I chuckle every time the BBC says "Ed Balls")

[Ben Kenobi]

Personally, I'll think there will be an election in a month as the budget falls when Cameron tries to present it.

[Imran Siddiqui]

It appears there is a Con-Lib deal close to being done. According to the Telegraph's live blog:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7558554/General-Election-2010-latest-live.html

Likely candidates for the six cabinet positions expected to be reserved for the Lib Dems in a Tory-led coalition are Vince Cable, Chris Huhne, Danny Alexander and David Laws. Some Tory sources are predicting that Teresa May (picture on Sky News below), the Tory shadow work and pensions secretary, will be ousted to clear the way for the outsiders. Nick Clegg's policy of playing hard to get has paid off.

17.32 Nick Robinson has been told by high-ranking Tory sources that Ken Clarke will become chancellor with Vince Cable as his deputy, while George Osborne will be demoted to the Department for Business. A bitter blow for the shadow-chancellor, if true.

and:

17.18 BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson says the Con-Dem agreement to be announced imminently includes fixed term parliaments, starting now. Which means that there can't be a snap election - this coalition will have to last four years.

Very interesting, if true, and seemingly means Ben doesn't get his wish.

[Guynemer]

Haven't read the whole thread, so this may well have been posted already, but I thought it too funny not to share:

[OzzyKP]

17.18 BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson says the Con-Dem agreement to be announced imminently includes fixed term parliaments, starting now. Which means that there can't be a snap election - this coalition will have to last four years.

Very interesting, if true, and seemingly means Ben doesn't get his wish.

Very good idea. The whole way elections are called and delayed and such in the UK (and most countries) is really strange. There should just be regular elections every x years. Not only will this be a short-term practical benefit but I think it is a positive electoral reform that is a good idea long term.

[epmd]

Brown resigns. Cameron to take over

LONDON (Reuters) – Gordon Brown resigned as prime minister of Britain on Tuesday and said Conservative leader David Cameron would take over, ending 13 years of rule by the center-left Labour Party.

The center-right Conservatives won most seats in a parliamentary election last week but fell short of a majority. Labour came second and the Liberal Democrats a distant third.

Both the Conservatives and Labour tried to win Lib Dem support to form the next government during five days of intense negotiations, but it became clear on Tuesday afternoon that Labour had lost and Brown would have to resign.

Sterling held gains against the dollar after Brown announced his resignation, rising 0.8 percent to $1.4972. Government bonds had also rallied earlier on reports that a Conservative/Lib Dem deal was imminent.

"I have informed the Queen's private secretary that it's my intention to tender my resignation to the Queen," Brown told reporters outside his Downing Street office, flanked by his wife Sarah.

"In the event that the Queen accepts I shall advise her to invite the leader of the opposition (Cameron) to seek to form a government. I wish the next prime minister well as he makes the important choices for the future," an emotional Brown said.

First among those choices will be what to do to reduce Britain's record budget deficit, which has raised fears that the country could lose its triple-A credit rating and get into debt difficulties.

MARKET RALLY

Markets want a quick resolution to the uncertainty and favor a Conservative-led government because they believe it would move faster and harder to cut the deficit.

Just after his statement, Brown, his wife and their two children briefly posed for photographers before leaving Downing Street, the official prime ministerial residence.

Then Brown was driven to Buckingham Palace where Queen Elizabeth accepted his resignation.

The sequence of events was in accordance with British constitutional convention.

Brown's statement made clear that the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats had secured some sort of power-sharing arrangement, but the exact details were not yet known.

Senior Conservative William Hague, who has been negotiating with the Lib Dems, told reporters minutes after Brown's statement that he and his team now had recommendations to propose to party colleagues.

Danny Alexander, a Lib Dem negotiator, made similar comments.

"We have completed our discussions in a good atmosphere and are now returning to report back to (Lib Dem leader) Nick Clegg and our parliamentary colleagues," he said.

The Lib Dems had turned to the Conservatives first, on the basis that they had won most votes and most seats in last Thursday's election. But Brown threw a spanner in the works on Monday when he said he would step aside in coming months.

The move was aimed at tempting the Lib Dems away from the Conservatives and into an alliance with Labour. Clegg had made it clear during the campaign he did not wish to prop up the unpopular Brown. (Additional reporting by Michael Holden, Peter Griffiths, Mohammed Abbas, Adrian Croft, Keith Weir and Tim Castle; editing by Jon Boyle)

Tories

[Krill]

If the 4 year term idea is true, then that changes the whole game for Lib Dems...4 years in Government might give them some power to wield for once.

On the other hand, Cabinet reshuffles are going to be a *****! And if they really do come to a loggerheads over a confidence issue...what the **** do they do then?

Truth be told, I don't see that 4 year term actually working, instead being the casus belli for the next election.

[Krill]

Osborne is Chancellor? ****.