UK General Election- May 6th

[notyoueither]

Speaking of ropes.

from The Economist

[Hauldren Collider]

The best slideshow on the internet.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gall...ture=362290833

Oh my god...That's ridiculous.

[Imran Siddiqui]

And Gordon Brown announces he's stepping down after there is a new government... obviously to increase the chances that the Lib-Dems join up with Labor instead of the Conservatives.

[OzzyKP]

Very interesting.

[C0ckney]

well brown had to go, and it's good that he's done so

i wonder how long it will take now before the contenders start making their leadership bids, will they be able to hold their fire to negotiate with the lib dems or will they start campaigning straight away. maybe someone like ed balls (who is very much against a deal with the liberals) will throw his hat into the ring early as a wrecking move. interesting times.

[C0ckney]

meanwhile, the tories have offered the lib dems a referendum on the alternative vote system. will they accept it? my hunch is they probably will, but it depends on other issues like tax and education. i'm not a fan of alternative vote, i think in many ways it's worse than FPTP, so i'm not sure this is a positive development.

labour is reportedly going to offer the av system in a bill, and then a referendum on PR. this is better, but the problem is that any lib/lab coalition would need the support of a ragbag of nationalists from wales, scotland and northern ireland. it's hard to see any such deal lasting for any length of time and so whatever is promised, the delivery is very uncertain. also, all the nationalist parties will demand more money from england as a price for their support, and how long could that go on for with the budget decisions that need to be made? in a second election this would hand the tories a massive boost, they would be able to argue that the country was being held to ransom by nationalist parties at a time of crisis.

[Cort Haus]

The rainbow coalition is a barmy option for the LDs. The numbers aren't enough for stability, and they will be discredited when it all fails and the Tories romp home in a new election. They're probably buggered too if they coalesce with Tories. Even if their MPs bought into it, a lot of the voters will be unhappy.

They should be prepared to tell the Tories to get on with it on their own and see how far they get.

[C0ckney]

that approach has its pitfalls too, if the lib dems say go it alone, then cameron becomes prime minister in charge of a minority government and we get a second election fairly soon. it's conceivable that the tories get an overall majority and the liberals end up with nothing, having spurned the a chance at actually governing and having a say in the serious decisions that the country faces.

[OzzyKP]

meanwhile, the tories have offered the lib dems a referendum on the alternative vote system. will they accept it? my hunch is they probably will, but it depends on other issues like tax and education. i'm not a fan of alternative vote, i think in many ways it's worse than FPTP, so i'm not sure this is a positive development.

Fantastic! AV is better than PR anyhow, if the Tories offered an AV referendum then they should absolutely go for the deal!

Lib-Con

[Krill]

It all comes down to how much Clegg thinks he can gamble, and the odds in the next election under each scenario.

Ultimately, the Tories are going to work as hard as they can against the AV referendum, so if they are playing this like electoral reform is their #1 aim, they don't have any choice but to go with Labour if they can get the AV bill done asap, because that should give the LD the best chance to be a power broker in the next election. And if that election is in 6 months, after the bill goes through (and need to figure out the chances of it passing!) Then they need to see if they will be able to work with either side due to the number of seats.

I doubt the Tories would even try to repeal AV if it got voted through...and they managed to get a majority. Somehow.

[Krill]

Fantastic! AV is better than PR anyhow, if the Tories offered an AV referendum then they should absolutely go for the deal!

Lib-Con

Ozzy, Labour have supposedly offered a bill shoving AV through parliament as their negotiation position.

[C0ckney]

oh great, a change in the voting system, but we don't get to vote on it. that's democracy in action right there!

some scottish labour MPs have come out and said that they won't work with the SNP, and further that they would vote against any bill to introduce AV. a number of senior labour figures have said publicly that they wouldn't support a coalition because it would be seen as undemocratic and wouldn't provide a stable government. so that's it, surely? i mean, i know that the 24 hour news people need something to talk about, but if even a few labour MPs refuse to play ball, the numbers just don't add up. it's descending rapidly into farce. it's a fatally flawed and desperate attempt from the labour leadership to cling on to power and nick clegg is going down fast in my estimation by playing this ridiculous game. he's making cameron look positively statesmen like.

[Krill]

Someone pointed out to me that the LD can't go with the Tories. What the Tories will do is break the coalition in a couple of months and dissolve parliament (remember that Tories are now saying they will not do a minority government), and they will balame all this on intransigence on the half of the LD. All the right wing press pushes the issue, and combined with Ashcroft money, the Tories will have a majority in 6 months.

So from a strategic PoV, LD don't have any choice but to work with Labour. They can't fight another election, they are broke; same with Labour.

[C0ckney]

but any arrangement with labour will fall apart in a matter of months, because the majority would be so small and the coalition would be so unwieldy. to say nothing of the fact that labour might not be able to count on their own backbenchers (based on recent history and the public statements of a number of MPs), and it would only require a tiny number of rebels to cause the whole arrangement to collapse.

i disagree with your assessment completely i'm afraid. the tories have put a lot of political capital into a con/lib coalition and to break it after a few months would look very bad. the only chance of a stable government which can last any length of time is a tory/liberal coalition. all other options lead very quickly to a second election. those claiming otherwsie are just ignoring the reality.

[C0ckney]

if labour/liberals together could command a majority in the commons, then what the liberals are doing would be entirely reasonable, but given the current situation, it's just playing fantasy politics.