Obama up 8 points

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Kidicious


This is a competition. They've got to play their best game until it's over. You can't sit on a lead.

But I don't think character attacks are their best game. Poll after poll after poll shows that, on the issues, most Americans are more in line with Obama. That is their best game. Do exactly what Zkrib said, but without that absurd first bit.

[DirtyMartini]

I think you all vastly overestimate the intelligence of the electorate.

This election will be decided by the NRA in the last week when they start running their "Obama supports taking your fully automatic assault weapons away and giving them to terrorist abortion doctors to use in aborting Christian babys." ads.

[Guynemer]

Sad, but true.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Guynemer


But I don't think character attacks are their best game. Poll after poll after poll shows that, on the issues, most Americans are more in line with Obama. That is their best game. Do exactly what Zkrib said, but without that absurd first bit.

IMO, negative attacks always hurt your opponent. Therefore McCain will get a boost from them. How much, who really knows.

So the real issue is what effect would responding in kind do? I guess I'm just aggressive and I think that democrats have lost before because they have failed to be aggressive.

[Velociryx]

I'd also point out that 8 points ain't all that big a lead.

Polls have a margin of error of +/-5%, yes? Which (potentially) erodes the greater bulk of said lead.

If I only had 8 points, I sure wouldn't be comfortable enough to coast thru the last month.

That said, the more presidential Obama can come off looking, the better, and as long as the attacks are responded to (not necessarily mud sling for mud sling), he should be okay.

Having said all that, I'm 100% certain that handlers and strategists for neither campaign are lurking here in secret to pick up tips on what to do, or not.

-=Vel=-

[Kidlicious]

Also, I think that each one would like to sling mud at the other. I don't think either one would feel any shame. But they fear that the other one will retaliate. If the other side retaliates the one who slings mud first is going to look bad for it, so neither one has slung yet. But now McCain is desperate so he's going to insitgate.

It's a no brainer that Obama will respond in kind.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Guynemer


But I don't think character attacks are their best game. Poll after poll after poll shows that, on the issues, most Americans are more in line with Obama. That is their best game. Do exactly what Zkrib said, but without that absurd first bit.

Your plan tracks that of John Kerry, rise above the swiftboat attacks and stick to the issues. Sometimes that strategy doesn't work.

[Theben]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Yep... and he diffuses the McCain attacks, while keeping his massive lead and looking "Presidential" to boot.

While this is possible, the fact that Obama didn't register a significant hit in the polls after the FISA vote tells me that his support base are also desperate to not have another Republican president. So they go to the voting booth, pinch their nose and pull the lever.

[Zkribbler]

Intrade indicates the odds of Obama getting elected are 67%, while McCain's odds are 33%.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Theben
While this is possible, the fact that Obama didn't register a significant hit in the polls after the FISA vote tells me that his support base are also desperate to not have another Republican president. So they go to the voting booth, pinch their nose and pull the lever.

The polls don't measure turnout, however.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
While the Keating Five thing just seems dumb. McCain has NEVER plowed it under. He talks about it quite a bit (just read his books) and credits it for changing him into a reformer. It's his crisis that led him to be "born again".

Of course, he's destroyed his credibility even on this front today. His campaign released statements now saying that he did absolutely nothing wrong at all, that the Senate investigation was a hit job, he disagrees even with the "poor judgment" accusation. This is, of course, in direct contradiction to his previous statements--even in his own autobiography--where he admitted he had made a mistake and was sorry about it all.

Zero integrity.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Velociryx
I'd also point out that 8 points ain't all that big a lead.

Polls have a margin of error of +/-5%, yes? Which (potentially) erodes the greater bulk of said lead.

If I only had 8 points, I sure wouldn't be comfortable enough to coast thru the last month.

That said, the more presidential Obama can come off looking, the better, and as long as the attacks are responded to (not necessarily mud sling for mud sling), he should be okay.

Having said all that, I'm 100% certain that handlers and strategists for neither campaign are lurking here in secret to pick up tips on what to do, or not.

-=Vel=-

8 points is significant because it's not just one poll--Obama enjoys a similar lead in all the national tracking polls. And an 8 point spread would translate to an electoral vote landslide on election day.

There's no reason to be complacent, though. And I do think the Keating thing will be more effective a punch than the Ayers nonsense. People are concerned about the economy and the failing banks. Pointing out that McCain was a part of the worst economic scandal of the past three decades isn't going to hurt Obama one bit, IMO. Especially since he's not attacking directly from the stump, unlike Palin. He's letting the surrogates float the Keating ghosts.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


Your plan tracks that of John Kerry, rise above the swiftboat attacks and stick to the issues. Sometimes that strategy doesn't work.

Not exactly. Kerry, stupidly, largely ignored the attacks. That's not what I'm suggesting at all. Obama should explain why the attacks are complete bull****, and go on.

If he attacks McCain at all, it should only be insofar as he shows clips of McCain previously denouncing attack ads, that they "show he has nothing positive to offer on his own," in McCain's own words.

[Ben Kenobi]

8 points is significant because it's not just one poll--Obama enjoys a similar lead in all the national tracking polls. And an 8 point spread would translate to an electoral vote landslide on election day.

Which is why even the exit polls after Kerry/Bush were accurate?

Polls can be gamed simply by improperly done samples. All it takes is a 10 point shift to registered democrats, and voila, instant 10 point Obamaslide.

National polls are useless. The only valuable polls are the state-by-state ones. I sincerely doubt that the pollsters bother to acquire folks outside of the cities in their proper proportion on election day.

As always I'll quote Mr. Berra's proclamation, "it ain't over 'till it's over".

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Which is why even the exit polls after Kerry/Bush were accurate?

Polls can be gamed simply by improperly done samples. All it takes is a 10 point shift to registered democrats, and voila, instant 10 point Obamaslide.

National polls are useless. The only valuable polls are the state-by-state ones. I sincerely doubt that the pollsters bother to acquire folks outside of the cities in their proper proportion on election day.

As always I'll quote Mr. Berra's proclamation, "it ain't over 'till it's over".

And don't forget the 6% Jesse Jackson factor, where up to 6% of poll responders who say they'll vote for the Black guy actually go into the polling booth and pull the lever for the white guy.