Obama up 8 points

[Boris Godunov]

Holy crap, Georgia polling for Senate race:

R2K 9/29-10/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Chambliss (R) 45
Martin (D) 44

SurveyUSA. 9/28-29. Likely voters. 3.8% (9/14-16 results)

Chambliss (R) 46 (53)
Martin (D) 44 (36)

If these numbers hold at this level of closeness until election day, I think Martin will pull off the upset of the evening.

The senate picture is looking better and better for the Democrats, as they're assured of picking up:

Colorado
New Mexico
Virginia

Very likely to pick up:

New Hampshire
Alaska

And looking strong in:

North Carolina
Oregon

So that'sa 7 seat pickup. But in the wings we have these races that are too close to call as of late:

Minnesota
Georgia
Mississippi
Kentucky (could McConnell get Daschled?)

While it's currently unlikely, there certainly is a chance that if Nov. 4th is a total blowout for Obama, his coattails could hand the Dems a 60 seat majority. And that would be one without needing Lieberman.

[TheStinger]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Which is why the democrats are smearing McCain because he is of the same generation as Ayers?

I don't get their campaign.

And I certainly don't trust the recent polls that show a supposed Obamaslide.

It's easy to fix a poll to come out however you want.

Kinda like Florida in 2000

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Which is why the democrats are smearing McCain because he is of the same generation as Ayers?

Huh? What are you talking about? Ayers is an Obama smear, not a McCain one.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
You do know that McCain did nothing wrong in the affair and was cleared of any impropriety by the Senate Ethics Panel, right?

The Senate Panel cleared him of violating Senate ethics rules for meeting with Federal regulators on Keating's behalf, but certainly did criticize him for "poor judgment."

But the real scandal was all the freebies McCain got from Keating, which he was forced to pay back once he got caught. The Senate committee punted on that one, saying they lacked jurisdiction because it occured while McCain was in the U.S. House. Then the U.S. House Committee said it had no jurisdiction, because McCain was no longer a representative.

McCain got off on a technicality. Maverick

[Kirnwaffen]

I still don't think it benefits Obama to go after Keating. I think it's better to let this look like a desperation move, continue to hit McCain for trying to change the subject to something trivial, and just play defense on the Ayers allegations. He's got a comfortable lead, and all going negative can do is hurt his campaign image.

[Boris Godunov]

Character counts

Translated from a Norwegian newspaper:

Mary lacked money to fly home to Norway – he saved her love

ÅSGÅRDSTRAND (VG): Mary was a newlywed and ready to move to Norway, but was stopped at the airport because she didn’t have enough money for the trip. Then a stranger turned up and paid for her.

Mary Menth Andersen was 31 years old at the time and had just married Norwegian Dag Andersen. She was looking forward to starting a new life in Åsgårdstrand in Vestfold with him. But first she had to get all of her belongings across to Norway. The date was November 2nd, 1988.

At the airport in Miami things were hectic as usual, with long lines at the check-in counters. When it was finally Mary’s turn and she had placed her luggage on the baggage line, she got the message that would crush her bubbling feeling of happiness.

"You’ll have to pay a 103 dollar surcharge if you want to bring both those suitcases to Norway," the man behind the counter said.

Mary had no money. Her new husband had travelled ahead of her to Norway, and she had no one else to call.

"I was completely desperate and tried to think which of my things I could manage without. But I had already made such a careful selection of my most prized possessions," says Mary.

Although she explained the situation to the man behind the counter, he showed no signs of mercy.

"I started to cry, tears were pouring down my face and I had no idea what to do. Then I heard a gentle and friendly voice behind me saying, 'That’s OK, I’ll pay for her.'"

Mary turned around to see a tall man whom she had never seen before.

"He had a gentle and kind voice that was still firm and decisive. The first thing I thought was, Who is this man?"

Although this happened 20 years ago, Mary still remembers the authority that radiated from the man.

"He was nicely dressed, fashionably dressed with brown leather shoes, a cotton shirt open at the throat and khaki pants," says Mary.

She was thrilled to be able to bring both her suitcases to Norway and assured the stranger that he would get his money back. The man wrote his name and address on a piece of paper that he gave to Mary. She thanked him repeatedly. When she finally walked off towards the security checkpoint, he waved goodbye to her.

The piece of paper said ‘Barack Obama’ and his address in Kansas, which is the state where his mother comes from. Mary carried the slip of paper around in her wallet for years, before it was thrown out.

"He was my knight in shining armor," says Mary, smiling.
She paid the 103 dollars back to Obama the day after she arrived in Norway. At that time he had just finished his job as a poorly paid community worker in Chicago, and had started his law studies at prestigious Harvard university.

In the spring of 2006 Mary’s parents had heard that Obama was considering a run for president, but that he had still not decided. They chose to write a letter in which they told him that he would receive their votes. At the same time, they thanked Obama for helping their daughter 18 years earlier.

In a letter to Mary’s parents dated May 4th, 2006 and stamped ‘United States Senate, Washington DC’, Barack Obama writes:

"I want to thank you for the lovely things you wrote about me and for reminding me of what happened at Miami airport. I’m happy I could help back then, and I’m delighted to hear that your daughter is happy in Norway. Please send her my best wishes. Sincerely, Barack Obama, United States senator."

The parents sent the letter on to Mary.

This week VG met her and her husband in the café that she runs with her friend Lisbeth Tollefsrud in Åsgårdstrand.

"It’s amazing to think that the man who helped me 20 years ago may now become the next US president," says Mary delightedly.

She has already voted for Obama. She recently donated 100 dollars to his campaign.

She often tells the story from Miami airport, both when race issues are raised and when the conversation turns to the presidential elections.

"I sincerely hope the Americans will see reason and understand that Obama means change," says Mary.

Helping strangers

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Kirnwaffen
I still don't think it benefits Obama to go after Keating. I think it's better to let this look like a desperation move, continue to hit McCain for trying to change the subject to something trivial, and just play defense on the Ayers allegations. He's got a comfortable lead, and all going negative can do is hurt his campaign image.

Yep. That was my point. It makes Obama look like he's going into the muck as well after deriding McCain for being "desperate".

[MrFun]

It's interesting to see that McCain supporters have no problems with McCain going into the muck to smear Obama but then they harp on how wrong it would be, or how it will cause Obama to lose by doing the same smearing that McCain has done.

For some reason, they seem to think that McCain can win by going into the muck, but want to really convince themselves that Obama will lose by going into the muck.

[Kirnwaffen]

The problem with Democrats is that they take the wrong lesson from the Swift-Boat attacks. Kerry got clobbered not because he failed to respond negatively; he got clobbered because he failed to respond at all for so long. What Obama needs to be doing right now is rolling his eyes, saying "I can't believe we're talking about this right now", and nailing McCain's balls to the wall on the issues, where he has a substantial advantage right now. Playing small ball is the wrong answer here.

[Ramo]

That's what's nice about Keating 5. You get to counterpunch on character (forcing the press to talk about Keating any time that the McCain camp brings up Ayers), and at the same time get to pivot back to issues, i.e. deregulation, social security privatization, etc.

[Imran Siddiqui]

they seem to think that McCain can win by going into the muck, but want to really convince themselves that Obama will lose by going into the muck.

You have absolutely no grasp of politics .

When someone is up by 8 points, the underdog MUST go into the muck to bring the other side down. If the other side gets into it as well, they are usually brought down as more idealistic observers think they are just the same. When the leader by 8 pts gets into the muck, he makes himself look bad.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

they seem to think that McCain can win by going into the muck, but want to really convince themselves that Obama will lose by going into the muck.

You have absolutely no grasp of politics .

When someone is up by 8 points, the underdog MUST go into the muck to bring the other side down. If the other side gets into it as well, they are usually brought down as more idealistic observers think they are just the same. When the leader by 8 pts gets into the muck, he makes himself look bad.

I do understand politics. Hence, why I understand why Kerry lost the election by failing to play mean to counter the vicious character attacks by Bush supporters. It doesn't matter if Obama is already ahead; if he just lies down and takes the punches without fighting back with facts, he can very well lose his lead.

I will say hi to Obama for you out in DC after he wins the election.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by MrFun
I do understand politics. Hence, why I understand why Kerry lost the election by failing to play mean to counter the vicious character attacks by Bush supporters.

Seriously, you don't understand politics at all. It wasn't because Kerry wasn't "mean". It was because Kerry refused to respond at all. All Kerry had to do was put out ads saying that all the swiftboating was lies. No need to go 'mean'.

And Kerry was NEVER in this position. With this lead, you can only hurt yourself by going negative.

[Kirnwaffen]

That's what's nice about Keating 5. You get to counterpunch on character (forcing the press to talk about Keating any time that the McCain camp brings up Ayers), and at the same time get to pivot back to issues, i.e. deregulation, social security privatization, etc.

The problem is that Obama loses his 'above the fray' appeal when he does this. You can pivot to issues without going negative, and, in this case, make John McCain look like a douchebag in the process. Obama doesn't need Keating Five, and bringing it up isn't going to help his case.

It blows my mind that people don't seem to grasp that there's a middle ground when it comes to hitting back. You don't have to just sit there and take the punches, but you also don't have to sling mud to hit back effectively. Obama is more than capable of defending himself on Rezko and Ayers. He doesn't need to distract the electorate from his associations by playing up McCain's.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

they seem to think that McCain can win by going into the muck, but want to really convince themselves that Obama will lose by going into the muck.

You have absolutely no grasp of politics .

When someone is up by 8 points, the underdog MUST go into the muck to bring the other side down. If the other side gets into it as well, they are usually brought down as more idealistic observers think they are just the same. When the leader by 8 pts gets into the muck, he makes himself look bad.

You mean the way Bush lost by getting into the muck in 2004?

Dream on. To the muck!