Do Any of You Gimps Still Believe in Obama?

[Winston]

I need a break here. See ya.

[Elok]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
First you call me insane, and now this.

Having a bad day Elok?

Who put a burr in your britches?

Nobody; I meant that as a clear-cut example of why absolute-numbers margins are faulty as an index of popularity. I'm sorry, but by almost any yardstick you can use GWB is a very unpopular president. Yes, he was very popular right after 9/11, but under those circumstances people would rally around a potted plant. And, as GePap said, that was seven years ago.

In 2004 he was able to win only because the Dems were mad enough to nominate Kerry, the Incredible Soulless Man--and he only just made it. Now he's barely more popular than Nixon was after Watergate and his own party is distancing itself from him. That is NOT popularity. Claiming it is, now, that's pretty out of it. You can substitute "nonsense" or even "eccentricity" for my "psychosis," but I saw no point in beating around the bush.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Winston

Obama being president would show that color of the skin does little.

Strange then, how Obama wouldn't be where he is at if it weren't for the colour of his skin.

IMHO, most people are voting on the merits. Still..

Lots of people voted for Obama because he's African American.

Lots of people won't vote for Obama because he's African American.

Who knows how many are in each group, or which group outnumbers the other.

[Ben Kenobi]

Nobody; I meant that as a clear-cut example of why absolute-numbers margins are faulty as an index of popularity.

I agree the absolute vote count measure is complete crap. The measure I was using is percentage of the total vote, which I did post up awhile ago. I feel percentage of the total is more accurate when comparing across elections (unless you have significant third party action--see Taft).

I'm sorry, but by almost any yardstick you can use GWB is a very unpopular president.

Now? Perhaps. In 2001 he was wildly popular and in 2004, he was not the worst presidential incumbent by a long margin. I listed 6 with worse percentages of the total then him. He wasn't stellar, but he wasn't the worst ever.

Yes, he was very popular right after 9/11, but under those circumstances people would rally around a potted plant. And, as GePap said, that was seven years ago.

Then approval polls are crap. You can't subscribe to confirmation bias and say that the numbers are legitimate when they are low, and illegitimate when they are high. If you are using the approval polls, then you have to sum them up over his entire presidency, not just the high and low points.

You don't see me saying that he's the most wildly successful president in history because of the high approval ratings in 2001. Why should we accept the ratings of 2007 as any more accurate?

I agree he is unpopular now. Is he the worst ever? No. For the period that we have, he is ranked above Truman (24% in 1952!), Nixon, and he is about the same as LBJ prior to his resignation in January of 1968 at 35 percent.

[Wernazuma III]

Originally posted by Winston

Racist BS.

Well, go screw yourself you sad piece of garbage.

I made an observation made by countless non-Liberal observers before me.

You may not agree. But I would still punch you right there for throwing around disgusting accusations like that.

Unless there's more about your opinion other than Obama being black, it's racist.
Whenever a black achieves something, it's "because he's black", when a woman achieves something it's "b/c she's a woman". Of course, white males never are where they are because they're white males.

So stick your foot in your mouth or up your rectum.

[Theben]

Actually he's right, based on the premise that "if my past was different, my present would be different." So he is correct even if it was probably the dumbest thing anyone could ever say.

[Elok]

The challenge that started all this:

Originally posted by GePap
Are you willing to acknowledge reality Ben and the fact that Bush is currently if not the most unpopular sitting president EVER, only second to Nixon at the depths of Watergate?

Currently. Not "over the course of his presidency, as an average of poll ratings." We are specifically talking about right now, or at least the poll closest to it. It's not confirmation bias at all to look only at what's recent.

[Wernazuma III]

Originally posted by Theben
Actually he's right, based on the premise that "if my past was different, my present would be different." So he is correct even if it was probably the dumbest thing anyone could ever say.

If that's how the post should be read, I take back the racism bit and change it for mental retardation.

[Ben Kenobi]

Currently. Not "over the course of his presidency, as an average of poll ratings." We are specifically talking about right now, or at least the poll closest to it. It's not confirmation bias at all to look only at what's recent.

Then the answer to that is no. He's tied for third, ahead of Truman, Nixon and tied with LBJ.

How can I "acknowledge" a fact which is untrue?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Theben
Actually he's right, based on the premise that "if my past was different, my present would be different." So he is correct even if it was probably the dumbest thing anyone could ever say.

I have a new sig!

[Ramo]

You don't see me saying that he's the most wildly successful president in history because of the high approval ratings in 2001. Why should we accept the ratings of 2007 as any more accurate?

Because measuring the public's approval of a President's performance makes more sense after said performance than before? And I'm pretty sure that the year is 2008, BTW.

I agree he is unpopular now. Is he the worst ever? No. For the period that we have, he is ranked above Truman (24% in 1952!), Nixon, and he is about the same as LBJ prior to his resignation in January of 1968 at 35 percent.

LBJ didn't resign. He declined to run for re-election. He stayed in office until the beginning of 1969 when his term ended. The only President who has resigned is Nixon.

And most polls show Bush's approval to be considerably lower than 35%. The RCP (a right leaning site) average is 28.5%, and the Pollster.com average is 26.6%. And many polls show him lower than 24%.

[Ramo]

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-bush.php

[Kontiki]

Bush bottomed out at 19%. No other president managed that in the polling era. Not Nixon or Truman at their lowest. Clinton was never anywhere near that figure.

[Ben Kenobi]

Because measuring the public's approval of a President's performance makes more sense after said performance than before? And I'm pretty sure that the year is 2008, BTW.

Nope, 2006 actually.

And most polls show Bush's approval to be considerably lower than 35%. The RCP (a right leaning site) average is 28.5%, and the Pollster.com average is 26.6%. And many polls show him lower than 24%.

Were these pollsters in existence in 1952? I think opinion polls are a crappy measure to compare presidents. As you've shown you do get great varience in pollsters.

[Ben Kenobi]

Massive error bars there.

19 percent? That one poll is 15 percent off of the trendline.

If we accept that poll as accurate, then there are error bars of +/- 15 percent.

So the for the moment trendline according to pollster.com is 27+/- 15 percent, which means he could be anywhere between 12 and 42 percent.