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Is the surge a success?

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  • #31
    The whole war has been a complete success, if you happen to be Iranian.
    Long time member @ Apolyton
    Civilization player since the dawn of time

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    • #32
      Iraq sees hope of US troop withdrawal by 2010

      By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Writer
      1 hour, 25 minutes ago

      BAGHDAD - Iraq's government welcomed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Monday with word that it apparently shares his hope that U.S. combat forces could leave by 2010.

      Like I've said, for all the hand-wringing over our interference, the people being "interfered with" don't want us gone yet.
      Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
      "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
      He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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      • #33
        Some do, some don't. Or, more accurately:

        Some want us out now.
        Some want us out soon, but not quite yet.
        Some want us to say for a few years.

        I'm not aware of a group that really wants us to set up bases and stay indefinitely.

        -Arrian
        grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

        The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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        • #34
          The surge has done it's job. The Iraqis haven't stepped up to the plate yet.

          Can't blame the surge for political failings.
          Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
          "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
          2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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          • #35
            Wow, you mean the Iraqis didn't solve their decades old political problems in one year? UNBELIEVABLE!!!

            What is to be noted here is that the progress has been real and is continuing. The most encouraging thing is not the big ticket items, but the millions of small details that have been worked out concerning the every day functioning of the organs of government. Even if the success is not of the exact character we were originally going for, it is still a success none the less.

            Some of you remind me of those "My sweet 16" girls crying because they got a Land Rover instead of a Ferrarri.
            "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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            • #36
              The surge has done it's job. The Iraqis haven't stepped up to the plate yet.

              Can't blame the surge for political failings.

              The whole purpose of the surge was to facilitate political compromise. That makes it a failure thus far. Those of us who opposed the surge opposed it because we couldn't foresee political compromise, not because we thought that substantially increasing the troop presence couldn't possibly lead to a reduction in violence. Indeed, the only real surprise is that it took several months of horrific violence before a substantial reduction even occurred.

              Some do, some don't. Or, more accurately:

              Some want us out now.
              Some want us out soon, but not quite yet.
              Some want us to say for a few years.

              I'm not aware of a group that really wants us to set up bases and stay indefinitely.
              And the vast majority of Iraqis are in camp one and two (some of the Kurds are in camp three, and that's about it). What's remarkable about Maliki explicitly joining camp two is that he's the prime beneficiary of the American presence. Yet, he endorsed Obama's plan because that's the most supportive he can be of American occupation while presiding over a system of government accountable to popular will.
              "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
              -Bokonon

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              • #37
                Indeed, the only real surprise is that it took several months of horrific violence before a substantial reduction even occurred.
                That wasn't a suprise.

                Yet, he endorsed Obama's plan because that's the most supportive he can be of American occupation while presiding over a system of government accountable to popular will.
                Did you miss his explanation of what he meant?
                "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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                • #38

                  You're original claim of 2006 levels is clearly wrong. The rate is less than half. Even if narrowed to the first half of 2006 you are wrong. Unless a decline of 30% on the original level is considered the same.
                  Late 2005/early 2006 is the period (i.e. that just preceding the al-Askariyah Mosque bombing) that the past few months' violence most resembles. It looks like a ridiculous bout of nitpicking to criticize Oerdin over that comment.
                  "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                  -Bokonon

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                  • #39

                    Did you miss his explanation of what he meant?
                    You mean when Centcom got someone else in the gov't to release a non-denial denial (which claimed a "mistranslation" without having specified the mistranslations)? Or when the Times corroborated "Der Spiegel's" translation (which was in fact provided by the Iraqis).

                    That wasn't a suprise.
                    I doubt you or anyone else predicted the degree of Iraqi violence to any significant accuracy, but I certainly found it interesting that the horrific violence against civilians in Iraq lasted about as long during the surge as before it.
                    "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                    -Bokonon

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                    • #40
                      His comment was very specific, he compared 2006 to now (2008).

                      Jun-08 373
                      May-08 396
                      Apr-08 631
                      Mar-08 819
                      Feb-08 564
                      Jan-08 485

                      TOTAL = 3268

                      Jun-06 738
                      May-06 969
                      Apr-06 808
                      Mar-06 901
                      Feb-06 688
                      Jan-06 590

                      TOTAL = 4724

                      Which of the 06 months is lower than the 08? The only incredible feat is the lengths some will go to save Oerdin from himself.

                      BTW, for everyone who uses icasualties, do you guys know where they explain their methodology? I thought the excluded deaths not specifically linked with the conflict (crime), but I couldn't find it on their site.
                      Last edited by Patroklos; July 21, 2008, 15:14.
                      "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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                      • #41
                        Again, it's clear that the pattern of violence in recent months most resembles a period in late 2005 and early 2006, not the much lower levels in early 2005, or 2004, or 2003 (as the graph he posted shows). As I said, ridiculous nitpicking.
                        "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                        -Bokonon

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                        • #42
                          No, it is actually the only sane way to do it. Why the hell whould you not use month to month unless you are trying your best to match months that make Oerdin not look like an idiot?
                          "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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                          • #43
                            The whole purpose of the surge was to facilitate political compromise.
                            Which it has done. You can water a plant, give it fertile soil to grow, and make sure it gets sun. Is it the fault of the gardener if the seed fails?

                            Those of us who opposed the surge opposed it because we couldn't foresee political compromise, not because we thought that substantially increasing the troop presence couldn't possibly lead to a reduction in violence.
                            I supported the surge because I believed it would lower the violence in Iraq, and give the Iraqis a fighting chance. The ball is now in their court to step up. Like I said, you are complaining that the surge hasn't done everything, but the surge is one part of the overarching strategy. The surge has succeeded in everything that it was being asked it to do. That it hasn't solved the political problem, is not a fault of the surge.

                            Indeed, the only real surprise is that it took several months of horrific violence before a substantial reduction even occurred.
                            [Yoda]Impatient you are.[/Yoda]
                            Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
                            "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
                            2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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                            • #44
                              In DanSed you. That was an argument completely tangential to my point, so I deleted it.
                              "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                              -Bokonon

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                              • #45
                                I supported the surge because I believed it would lower the violence in Iraq, and give the Iraqis a fighting chance. The ball is now in their court to step up. Like I said, you are complaining that the surge hasn't done everything, but the surge is one part of the overarching strategy. The surge has succeeded in everything that it was being asked it to do. That it hasn't solved the political problem, is not a fault of the sruger.
                                You wrote that as if it were a counterargument to what you quoted. It isn't.
                                "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                                -Bokonon

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