Is the surge a success?

[SlowwHand]

Oerdin is running thin on material.

[BeBMan]

Surgery

[Patroklos]

First of all your own source doesn't back your numbers.

They were from the homepage of the site and are in fact all Iraqi deaths, to include the ISF, so while unintentional on my part it shows that Iraqi deaths are in fact down in poth categories.

As to the meat of your waffling, others have adequately addressed it.

I imagine you meant ?

Sarcasm

[snoopy369]

I wonder how much of the Surge's success was troop levels, and how much was Petraeus? A finally competent general ...

[GePap]

Violence had declined significantly, as well as it should have. Unfortunately, the US isn't willing to dramatically pull out troops, so the domestic rationale for the surge has failed. The political outlook is still up in the air. What will be very interesting to see is if the admin. had enough juice to pasuh through a status of forces agreement anywhere near the kind they were originally demanding. I have no doubt US troops will probably retain immunity, though not contractors, but the big questions not yet answered seem the status of control of Iraqi airspace and the ability of US forces to undertake combat operations with or without Iraqi approval.

[Zkribbler]

The Surge was designed to gain time for the Iraqi govenment to become stablized and begin to government. In light of all unmet benchmarks, the surge has been a stragetic failure.

Deaths have decreased. But I'd place the Surge as only having the third-most impact in this area.

First is the stategy (implimented pre-surge) of getting the Sunni tribal leaders to switch sides and go after al Queda instead of us.

Second is the sad fact that ethnic cleansing has worked. Most neighborhoods have been scoured of any minorities, and so the reason for ethnic violence has decreased.

But still, there's no denying that putting more troops in resulted in more bad guys being killed. And the few bad guys, the better.

[Ben Kenobi]

Obviously the strategy was successful since folks are moving goalposts now.

[Dinner]

How do you figure that, Ben?

Oh, hell. Why am I asking Ben? I don't want to get sucked into the Benaverse.

[Ben Kenobi]

The benchmarks were the strategy for the entire war. The surge was one step in the process, but not the only step.

The surge has been successful in what it could do, whether the benchmarks will or will not be fully achieved depends on other factors.

It's like saying "the surge won't butter my toast right"

"the surge won't do my homework for me."

Is the surge the new roomba?

[Berzerker]

I think the surge was more PR than actual effect, I understand the big change was the Sunnis stopped cooperating with AQ in Iraq and the Shia aint giving us too much trouble as they fight over control. But at the time I supported the surge only because the status quo was failing, I think the surge has worked enough but I dont see it working in Afghanistan. We're screwed there because we cant pursue into Pakistan.

[SlowwHand]

In other words, finally taking control of their destiny? I's about ttime. The government wants it to be a phased withdeawl, as of today. People that say we've over-stayed our welcome, I beg to differ. Tell them we shouldn't have been there at all, don't tell me.

[Arrian]

Sigh.

Put aside Oerdin's "2006 levels" argument. The key to all of this is the benchmarks. There are obviously a bunch of "partial" or "incomplete" ones on the list.

I'm more hopeful than I was last year, but not by much. Clearly, progress has been made regarding security. That's step 1. The political stuff is harder, and is ultimately the make-or-break thing.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The benchmarks were the strategy for the entire war. The surge was one step in the process, but not the only step.

The surge has been successful in what it could do, whether the benchmarks will or will not be fully achieved depends on other factors.

It's like saying "the surge won't butter my toast right"

"the surge won't do my homework for me."

Is the surge the new roomba?

No, it's really not like whining that the surge won't butter your toast. The surge was intended to provide "breathing room" for political reconcilliation/cooperation. The idea was that if we provided better security, the Iraqis could calm down, cut some deals, and move forward.

It is unclear whether that goal, which is obviously political in nature (do we have to discuss von Clausewitz here?), has been/will be accomplished. I'm dubious.

-Arrian

[Felch]

Is it too soon to start chanting USA?

[Arrian]

Yeah. The Olympics hasn't started yet.

-Arrian