Now that Obama has declared victory... Why is he so weak?

[Theben]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
You have a reasonably good condition used car I could buy?

I'll sell you my 2nd car, however it only drives north and west.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Bosh
In a lot of the polls McCain is doing better among women and Obama is doing better among men. There's no way in hell this is going to happen, even if Obama does lose there's no way this campaign will reverse the traditional gender gap.

Once Clinton supporters start facing the facts you'll see a bit boost in Obama's poll numbers.

I agree with this. People will come back home.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by DanS
What states is Obama going to pick off?

He might have a chance with Iowa, Indiana or Ohio.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe


No Aggie is actually correct. Righties have by and large been driven away from Poly leaving it lurching to the left. The folk that remain with even centrist tendencies tend therefor to be cast as hard right wingers save Imran who went full throated commie.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben, your assumption seems to be that most blue collar Dems will either vote McCain or sit out the election. That's just fundamentally flawed.

Maybe, maybe not, but Obama has been shown to be particularly weak in most of the appalachian counties, and that includes ones like Scranton.

Lackawanna: 213,295

Hillary Clinton 73.82%
Barack Obama 26.18%

Luzerne: 319,250

Hillary Clinton 75.02%
Barack Obama 24.98%

Washington: 202,897

Hillary Clinton 71.37%
Barack Obama 28.63%

These are the three counties with greater then 200k people in PA where Obama lost by greater then 40 points and went Democrat in the last election. We aren't talking small losses here, these are crushing defeats. Obama will need majorities in all three if he wants to win PA.

[Ben Kenobi]

Interestingly enough, in Ohio, we don't see that problem at all for Obama. As usual he managed to win the counties with over 200k people, or was very competitive. Obama has special problems in PA that we don't see elsewhere.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


And that will mean a loss in PA.

Nope. He's good in PA. He's already got Bob Casey on board, and Rendell will work for him too. The Dems have put together a formidable machine under Rendell; he used it for Hillary's good in the primaries, but it'll be Obama's in the general election.

As for Dan's map on p1, I think Obama would pick up Iowa and New Mexico for sure (along with Minnesota's rogue abstention). That would make it 274-264. At that point, he needs to flip Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, or Kansas to win the nomination, and all of those are vulnerable. He could also flip Nevada, which would result in a tie and throw the election to the House, where Dem control would give it to him. His biggest problem, really, is keeping Michigan in the fold, though I think that's doable.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Theben


I'll sell you my 2nd car, however it only drives north and west.

Designed by a software programmer was it?