Now that Obama has declared victory... Why is he so weak?

[Asher]

Re: Now that Obama has declared victory... Why is he so weak?

Originally posted by DanS
I've thought for a while now that Obama is a strong candidate. But it seems odd that he was blown out in a state like Kentucky. Couldn't carry California. Couldn't carry Texas. Couldn't carry Pennsylvania. All the while he was the presumptive nominee.

Weak.

You just hate black people.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well here are my predictions including margins.

OBAMA:

Illinois +25
Hawaii +20
Vermont +18
Maryland +17
Delaware +17
Rhode Island +15
New York +15
Washington +12
Massachusetts +10
California +8
Oregon +8
Minnesota +5
Maine +5
Connecticut +3
New Jersey +2

MCCAIN

Utah +40
Idaho +25
Nebraska +25
Oklahoma +20
North Dakota +20
South Dakota +20
Montana +20
Wyoming +20
Arizona +15
Kentucky +15
Tennessee +15
Mississippi +15
Alabama +12
Georgia +11
South Carolina +10
North Carolina +10
Alaska +10
West Virginia +10
Kansas +10
Texas +8
Louisiana +8
Indiana +8
Arkansas +8
New Hampshire +7
Virginia +6
Florida +5
Ohio +5
Missouri +3
Nevada +3
Wisconsin +3
Michigan +2
Colorado +2
Iowa +2
Pennsylvania +1
New Mexico +1

[Agathon]

So does anyone want to bet me that come December Ben will be sporting an avatar that depicts two homosexuals fornicating over an altar?

[Ben Kenobi]

So does anyone want to bet me that come December Ben will be sporting an avatar that depicts two homosexuals fornicating over an altar?

Last time the folks on poly wouldn't take me up on a straight bet 270 ec votes for Bush.

Any of them willing to take a 270 ec votes for McCain bet?

[GePap]

The Republican party is hurting right now (as three consecutive loses in what should have been secure districts show), the Republicans haven't actually gotten rid of the Ron Paul forces yet, which may cause some issues at the convention.

On top of that McCain's crowds are not particularly enthusiastic, while Obama is drawing immense, very intense crowds. Polls are fine and dandy, but what counts on election day is voter mobilization. In the South there will be massive black turnout, and this could force Republicans, who will have far less money to spend on advertising than Democrats, to spend money in places that should be secure for them, allowing Democrats to outspend them in swing states. Democratic turnout in the primaries has been much greater than republican turnout.

I mean, lets look at Ohio's primary:
at that point it was a sure thing that McCain was going to be the nominee, and yet he got 60% of the vote. A little more than a million republicans voted in the Primary, while almost 2.2 Million Democrats voted. Even is say 30% of those that voted for Hillary decided to go with McCain instead of Obama, and ALL the republicans who voted came out in full force for McCain, that would be:

Obama with 1.8 Million and McCain with 1.4 Million. And yes, this does not account for "independents", or people who did not vote in the general, but even just going by these numbers, the simple enthusiasm gap is going to be a huge albatross around the Republican's neck. Add to that that the leader or the party right now is electoral Kryptonite and that most Republican candidates can't run away from the guy fast enough, and its hard to see republicans picking up ANY state won by the Democrats in 2004, and it looks likely that Democrats will pick up several.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by LordShiva
And now you're pro-apartheid?

Me and Reverend Wright. Gots to keep them peoples with different brains and ways of learnin seperate.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Arrian


If this is true (and I don't believe it is), then I am sorry to say that you're a fool.

But I don't think you're a fool, any more than I think you are now hard-right. You were center-right 5 years ago and are center-right now.

-Arrian

No Aggie is actually correct. Righties have by and large been driven away from Poly leaving it lurching to the left. The folk that remain with even centrist tendencies tend therefor to be cast as hard right wingers save Imran who went full throated commie.

[Ben Kenobi]

The Republican party is hurting right now (as three consecutive loses in what should have been secure districts show), the Republicans haven't actually gotten rid of the Ron Paul forces yet, which may cause some issues at the convention.

Yes, it is true that the republicans in general are hurting, but McCain is not. 'Generic republican' isn't running for president unfortunatly.

As for Ron Paul, why would McCain even care about him? Ron Paul doesn't even place 3rd on the delegates list. It's a protest vote, that's all.

On top of that McCain's crowds are not particularly enthusiastic, while Obama is drawing immense, very intense crowds.

What is there to get enthused over? McCain has won the nomination. Obama, still hasn't dealt with Hillary yet, and there won't be a democrat nominee until September.

Polls are fine and dandy, but what counts on election day is voter mobilization. In the South there will be massive black turnout, and this could force Republicans, who will have far less money to spend on advertising than Democrats, to spend money in places that should be secure for them, allowing Democrats to outspend them in swing states. Democratic turnout in the primaries has been much greater than republican turnout.

Great, and Obama will get crushed. 99.99 percent of the black vote isn't as important to him as it is to get within striking distance of the white vote to McCain.

I mean, lets look at Ohio's primary:
at that point it was a sure thing that McCain was going to be the nominee, and yet he got 60% of the vote.

If he's a sure thing, why do the primaries matter anymore? You might as well play paper scissors rock.

A little more than a million republicans voted in the Primary, while almost 2.2 Million Democrats voted. Even is say 30% of those that voted for Hillary decided to go with McCain instead of Obama, and ALL the republicans who voted came out in full force for McCain, that would be

Do you sincerely believe that the turnout is going to be 2:1 in the general? I've got a brooklyn bridge to sell you Gepap.

its hard to see republicans picking up ANY state won by the Democrats in 2004, and it looks likely that Democrats will pick up several.

I can. Obama is in serious trouble in PA, which Kerry only carried by 2. Wisconsin he is also in serious trouble, and that was a tossup. Michigan, he is also in trouble there too, and is seeking to have the entire state of michigan be expelled from the primaries.

Obama is the weakest Dem nominee since McGovern, and we know what happened to him.

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe


No Aggie is actually correct. Righties have by and large been driven away from Poly leaving it lurching to the left. The folk that remain with even centrist tendencies tend therefor to be cast as hard right wingers save Imran who went full throated commie.

Some righties ran away. So did a number of loony toons lefties, as I recall (and I'm not even thinking of Ted).

Besides, you didn't say you were a moderate who was "cast" as a hard core right-winger. You said you had been aggravated into becoming a hard-core righty.

-Arrian

[GePap]

Voicing your opinions Ben aren't an argument.

You claim that Obama is "in trouble" in Pennsylvania:

IN the last two polls I could see talking about a general election in Pennsylvania, both POST Hillary victories, Obama either leads by +7 (Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama Susquehanna McCain 39, Obama 46 from May 12) or by + 8 (Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama SurveyUSA McCain 40, Obama 48 from May 20)

IN the primary, more people voted from Obama than turned out for the Republican Primary.

So Ben, do you have anything even remotely close to evidence for your statement about Obama being in "trouble" in Pennsylvania, or is it just a groundless opinion based on your particular political bent?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Obama is the furthest left senator of all the Democrat senators.

Ben has gone the way of Ned and is now creating his own universe to live in.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Arrian


Some righties ran away. So did a number of loony toons lefties, as I recall (and I'm not even thinking of Ted).

Besides, you didn't say you were a moderate who was "cast" as a hard core right-winger. You said you had been aggravated into becoming a hard-core righty.

-Arrian

True enough by virtue of the ground under my feet shifting left.

What was centrist is now hard right.
For example I was agnostic/skeptical about invading Iraq. Today I still hold to we did it we are responsible for fixing it. That today sounds very hard right on these forums.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Idaho? Arizona? What are you smoking Oerdin?

Florida is lost to the Democrats unless they nominate Hillary.

Naw, I'm more confident then ever that Hillary is angling for the VP spot and a party unity ticket is in the offing.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

Indiana? Ain't gonna happen. Gary isn't enough to overturn a solid republican state.

Supposedly the state Republican Party is in complete disarray and the voters are really angry with them due to the Gary thing. Tie it in with people upset over Bush and you have a solid red state once again in play.

I don't think you're giving enough consideration to the three recent special elections. All three were deep red seats and Democrats won all three. Bush and his enablers in Congress are dragging down the entire Republican Party. It's looking like a tidal wave is coming.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
No Aggie is actually correct. Righties have by and large been driven away from Poly leaving it lurching to the left. The folk that remain with even centrist tendencies tend therefor to be cast as hard right wingers save Imran who went full throated commie.

You realize comments like that may make people think you are a far right guy?

Ogie and Newsmax coming to similar conclusions .