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Now that Obama has declared victory... Why is he so weak?

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  • #1

    Now that Obama has declared victory... Why is he so weak?

    I've thought for a while now that Obama is a strong candidate. But it seems odd that he was blown out in a state like Kentucky. Couldn't carry California. Couldn't carry Texas. Couldn't carry Pennsylvania. All the while he was the presumptive nominee.

    Weak.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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  • #2
    He'll carry the big blue states come November. There is no doubt about that.
    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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    • #3
      What states is Obama going to pick off?

      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #4
        I think the argument always has been that while Clinton wins the more 'traditional Democrat' areas (union, working class) Obama wins the more moderate groups (oddly since he's the more liberal candidate in theory?) and the young 'need a change' folks, who:
        a) Don't exist in Kentucky
        b) More likely wouldn't vote democrat (or wouldn't vote at all) if not for him.

        California is the one that confuses me the most... maybe I just don't understand that state, but I would've thought he'd win that state, or at least do better, hispanic vote or no...
        <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
        I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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        • #5
          I can see him have a decent chance with Virginia. But he's going have a hard as Hell time in keeping Pennsylvannia and Michigan.
          “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
          - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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          • #6
            Originally posted by DanS
            What states is Obama going to pick off?

            Ohio, and potentially a couple of western states.

            I think the real question will be, who loses more of their base:

            McCain - far-right, libertarian, christian conservatives
            Obama - working class, unions

            Whomever is able to keep more of their base, whether via VP choice, or something else, will win the election.

            PA/MI brings up an interesting point: Any good VP choices from there for either side?
            <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
            I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by DanS
              What states is Obama going to pick off?

              Is this a predictions thread? Okay then, at minimum:

              Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, and New Mexico.

              Your mistake is assuming that, just because Hillary is particularly strong in some states, that Barack is not also strong in them. McCain wants to continue Bush's war policies and continue Bush's economic policies. This is a sure path to defeat.
              Last edited by Zkribbler; May 21, 2008, 13:53.

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              • #8
                The polls show that he would win CA now (along with other 2/5 states). The race changed by quite a bit after Ultra Mega Tuesday.


                What states is Obama going to pick off?


                The polls show that he's ahead in CO, NM, IA, and NV (that alone + Kerry is victory). He has almost even odds to take OH or VA. And he's competitive in AK, MO, IN, NC, and FL (I'm guessing he would win 1-2 of these states today). It's true that he has to worry about defense in a few states: WI, MI, and NH, notably, and to a lesser extent PA. But the playing field looks pretty decent right now. I'm guessing that it'll look a lot better after Obama consolidates Dems and we get closer to November.
                "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                -Bokonon

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                • #9
                  ZK: I'd be shocked if he got half of those states... we'll see I guess

                  Ramo: The biggest thing that Obama has to overcome is the usual Republican gain from now until November. The states he is close in may well become Republican in a few months...
                  <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                  I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by snoopy369
                    ZK: I'd be shocked if he got half of those states... we'll see I guess

                    Ramo: The biggest thing that Obama has to overcome is the usual Republican gain from now until November. The states he is close in may well become Republican in a few months...
                    McCain has the unenviable task of attempting to sail between Scylla and Caribdis. On one hand, he has to sail right in order to pick up the base of the party and especially its big doners. On the other hand, he has to sail to the middle to coax the independants and moderates away from Obama. IMHO, not only can't he do it, he won't be able to come close to doing it.

                    He won't get crushed the way Dukakis and Goldwater did, but there's going to be a tidal shift in the electorate and he's going to be buried.

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                    • #11
                      I don't think the data shows a "usual Republican gain."
                      "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                      -Bokonon

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                      • #12
                        Re: Now that Obama has declared victory... Why is he so weak?

                        Originally posted by DanS
                        I've thought for a while now that Obama is a strong candidate. But it seems odd that he was blown out in a state like Kentucky. Couldn't carry California. Couldn't carry Texas. Couldn't carry Pennsylvania. All the while he was the presumptive nominee.

                        Weak.
                        The campaign hasn't really started. Hillary is still in the public eye, and the fight for the Democratic nomination is still the story. Obama can't campaign against Hillary on grounds of things like Iraq and Katrina, because she wasn't primarily responsible for them (even though she voted for the war, she wasn't a member of the party that was pushing it).

                        When Obama goes against McCain full time it will be broadside after broadside aimed at Republican incompetence. If Obama was running against the McCain of 2000, he would probably lose. However, he's running against a McCain who has spent the last 8 years soiling his own trousers by associating himself with possibly the worst administration in US history.

                        My suspicion is that this is going to be a different kind of election. Since Nixon, the Republican strategy has been to appeal (overtly or covertly) to one portion of the population against another. The Democrats used to do this as well. But that kind of group politics is less effective than it used to be, due to the increasing fragmentation of American society. The fact that campaigns based on it have become ever more poisonous is evidence that it takes more and more to get it to work. If McCain wins this time, the campaign will probably be the filthiest in living memory. Unfortunately for him, the one thing that does seem to unite a majority of Americans right now is a loathing for the current administration.

                        People forget that Bush originally campaigned as a centrist Republican, and most people thought he would be like his father (who was a fairly inoffensive and competent President). If 9/11 had never happened, he would likely have been dumped in 2004 if he'd tried to carry on as he has. He's been living off of 9/11 for most of his presidency, and it is no longer working very well. You can only get so far when your policies are direct denials of objective facts.

                        You only need look at Poly. Many posters who were dyed in the wool conservatives 5 years ago have now moved left towards the right wing of the democrats (Imran is the obvious example - Ted also went from being a Republican to being a radical leftist). The only tories left here tend to be the fanatics and elderly people like Ming and rah, who can be excused on grounds of advancing senility.
                        Only feebs vote.

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                        • #13
                          Why have 10-20% of Republican primary voters been voting for Huckabee and Paul, given that McCain is teh actual (not presumptive) nominee?
                          THEY!!111 OMG WTF LOL LET DA NOMADS AND TEH S3D3NTARY PEOPLA BOTH MAEK BITER AXP3REINCES
                          AND TEH GRAAT SINS OF THERE [DOCTRINAL] INOVATIONS BQU3ATH3D SMAL
                          AND!!1!11!!! LOL JUST IN CAES A DISPUTANT CALS U 2 DISPUT3 ABOUT THEYRE CLAMES
                          DO NOT THAN DISPUT3 ON THEM 3XCAPT BY WAY OF AN 3XTARNAL DISPUTA!!!!11!! WTF

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                          • #14
                            Many posters who were dyed in the wool conservatives 5 years ago have now moved left towards the right wing of the democrats (Imran is the obvious example - Ted also went from being a Republican to being a radical leftist).


                            OTOH, I'm seriously leaning towards McCain right now over Obama. So, there is that.
                            “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                            - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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                            • #15
                              Hell, why is it that McCain lost Utah by 85% after he became the presumptive nominee (FL)?
                              "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                              -Bokonon

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