This is the end? (Hillary)

[-Jrabbit]

Honestly, does anyone here feel that America will elect a black or female President right now? Anyone?

Yes, I really do. Call me Don Quixote...

[Kontiki]

I totally agree with Guy. I know there's alot of people on this board that would like to think the US is at a point where a woman or a black man would have a chance, but it just isn't.

[-Jrabbit]

We shall see, eh?

[Kuciwalker]

I really don't think that's the case. If only Obama or Clinton were running, I think this election would be a piece of cake for the Democrats.

[Kontiki]

Indeed. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I really don't think I am.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Well, I've always thought it was going to be close, and I still think that.

The key is the electoral college math. Frankly, the GOP could run a Cheney/Rumsfeld ticket at this point and they'd still carry most of the South and the West, and thus only end up a few votes short of electoral vote victory. I can't quite fathom that, but then I can't quite fathom the fact that nearly one in 3 Americans thinks Bush is doing just super.

It's not in the bag for anybody (though the Dems would be in a much better position is the EC were proportional); it's going to be the same hard-fought campaign we saw in 2000 and 2004.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
The key is the electoral college math. Frankly, the GOP could run a Cheney/Rumsfeld ticket at this point and they'd still carry most of the South and the West, and thus only end up a few votes short of electoral vote victory.

True enough... on the other hand, the Dems could nominate a trained monkey, and they would still carry the traditional democratic states like California and New York.

It will come down to the regular battle ground states.
And again, I kind of have to agree with Kuci. If it were only Clinton or Obama running, I think the country could elect a woman or a black. But since they ran against each other, one side is going to feel betrayed in the end, and it may be enough to lose the election.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by Ming
True enough... on the other hand, the Dems could nominate a trained monkey, and they would still carry the traditional democratic states like California and New York.

The GOP did that twice in a row, and guess what, it worked!

[Wiglaf]

Add on top of that the bigots who wouldn't vote in million years for a woman or a black, and the democrats could be in serious trouble.

So, in North Carolina's primary yesterday, 6% of blacks supported Hillary.

This tells me perhaps white people aren't the only bigots, please ride your political correctness train into the nearest reality check point please.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly McCain, if he wins, is going to owe that win to the GOP stalwarts

I still fail to see why this is such a universal assumption, notwithstanding Carter. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if McCain would pander to the base to get into the White House, and after that just act however his demonstrably divergent conscience dictates no matter how much they whine. What the hell could they do to stop him?

Obviously not impeachment, and even the extent to which they could retaliate by jamming up his legislative initiatives isn't that much considering that A) even the most embittered far-right rep/senators can't escape voting for bills their own constituents do support, and B) for other bills McCain could replace whatever far-right reps/senators he loses by reaching across the aisle as he's done before. I just fail to see how the right would completely have McCain over a barrel once he's already given four guaranteed years in the bully pulpit.

The only way he'd have no choice but to toe the line is if he's absolutely deadset on a second term, but he's given no indication of that and given his age it's less likely than for most, plus even with an alienated base it's hard to picture any GOP figure who could snuff out an incumbent in the 2012 primary. When was the last time in U.S. history an incumbent was even booted by his own party anyway?

[Ming]

Originally posted by Wiglaf


So, in North Carolina's primary yesterday, 6% of blacks supported Hillary.

This tells me perhaps white people aren't the only bigots, please ride your political correctness train into the nearest reality check point please.

And please point out where I stated that only white people are bigots... so take your trolling to the nearest reality check point please

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
Expect to see Hillary stagger out of the flaming wreckage of North Carolina and make her way towards the Convention of Doom.

I really want this to go to convention just to have the Dems defend kicking 2 large states out of the process.

[rah]

And probably the only reason why Hillary hasn't dropped out. I think she still expects to pull a rabbit out of her hat on that one.

[-Jrabbit]

With no money left and a lot of public and party pressure to withdraw, I fully expect the Clinton campaign to go back-room and concentrate on getting the Michigan and Florida delegations committed to her and seated.

It's really her only option at this point.

[Darius871]

Looking at the exit polls fron NC and IN people care about Wright but not enough to change their votes, so apparently it'd take a cannibalism scandal to save Hillary at this point.