Tell me about Huckabee

[Ben Kenobi]

And the only ones saying Obama isn't "black enough" are Republicans.

Exactly both claims deserve equal amount of time.

[Ramo]

Look at the trend over the past couple months. It's clear as day. Thompson went down, Huckabee went up, while Romney remained just about static (though slightly down).

[Ben Kenobi]

From those numbers it has seemingly nothing to do with Romney's number either (2% points is with in the margin, easily).

Well you'll have to take it up with Ramo. He believes that Huckabee's jump has some correlation with Thompson. Obviously it has more of a correlation with Romney then with Thompson.

[Ramo]

About Thompson's laziness, check out this tabulation of visits to the early primary/caucus states (according to the Washington Post's tracker):

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2640

Thompson is losing because he's not campaigning enough. He has campaigned less than gadfly candidates like Paul and Tancredo, as well as Giuliani who isn't even trying to win the early states. He skipped the NH debate to go on Letterman. Thompson's laziness is empirically demonstrable in a way that arbitrary characterizations of whether Obama is not black enough or too black are not.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Well you'll have to take it up with Ramo. He believes that Huckabee's jump has some correlation with Thompson. Obviously it has more of a correlation with Romney then with Thompson.

Where exactly do you get your correlation with Romney?

And, of course, Ramo has said look at the numbers over the course of several months. Have you?

[Ben Kenobi]

Look at the trend over the past couple months. It's clear as day. Thompson went down, Huckabee went up, while Romney remained just about static (though slightly down).

Post it up like I did.

The recent bounce has nothing to do with Thompson, which is the one that everyone is talking about. People are wondering how he jumps up from 12 to 19 percent over a couple of weeks.

Romney's been in a steady decline. Being two points over McCain is not a 'frontrunner'.

[Ben Kenobi]

Thompson is losing because he's not campaigning enough. He has campaigned less than gadfly candidates like Paul and Tancredo, as well as Giuliani who isn't even trying to win the early states.

So why isn't Guiliani lazy? He isn't even trying to win the first two states, even though one of them is in his backyard of NH.

He skipped the NH debate to go on Letterman. Thompson's laziness is empirically demonstrable in a way that arbitrary characterizations of whether Obama is not black enough or too black are not.

It's sloppy journalism, the same way that saying Obama isn't black enough. It's lazy and shows a lack of research on the part of the person looking into the candidates.

There are problems with Thompson's record, yet I've not heard any substantive critiques. Maybe I should quote that Reagan was considered too lazy too.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Post it up like I did.

The recent bounce has nothing to do with Thompson, which is the one that everyone is talking about. People are wondering how he jumps up from 12 to 19 percent over a couple of weeks.

Romney's been in a steady decline. Being two points over McCain is not a 'frontrunner'.

Oh, let me

10/15/07

Giuliani 29%
Huckabee 8%
Thompson 23%
Romney 13%
McCain 9%

11/15/07

Giuliani 28%
Huckabee 11%
Thompson 11%
Romney 13%
McCain 11%

12/10/07

Giuliani 24%
Huckabee 19%
Thompson 11%
Romney 13%
McCain 11%

--

Romney has stayed EXACTLY the same, while Thompson has dropped from the 20s to around 11%.

It appears to me that Thompson's supporters got disillusioned with him and went back to the "undecided" pool until they saw Huckabee, who was who they thought they were getting with Thompson and jumped to him.

It's the social conservatives who are unsure of Romney trying to find a candidate.

[Ramo]

Ben, I know that you're not dumb. A cursory glance at the Rasmussen numbers should tell the story. Two data points are obviously not as meaningful as an averaged trend, but if you want to play this game look at the first date in the tracker (10/1) and the last (12/10). Romney was static, Thompson went down by 14%, and Huckabee went up by 13%. That's pretty representative of the trend in general.

[Ramo]

So why isn't Guiliani lazy? He isn't even trying to win the first two states, even though one of them is in his backyard of NH.

Because his strategy doesn't rely on early states... And Giuliani still outworked your boy by about four to one...

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes?

I don't see a trend.

Thompson's numbers go down, Huckabee's numbers rise 3 percent, McCain's go up 2.

Giuliani 29% -1
Huckabee 8% +3
Thompson 23% -12
Romney 13% +0
McCain 9% +2

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Yes?

I don't see a trend.

Thompson's numbers go down, Huckabee's numbers rise 3 percent, McCain's go up 2.

Giuliani 29% -1
Huckabee 8% +3
Thompson 23% -12
Romney 13% +0
McCain 9% +2

As I DanS'ed you:

It appears to me that Thompson's supporters got disillusioned with him and went back to the "undecided" pool until they saw Huckabee, who was who they thought they were getting with Thompson and jumped to him.

It's the social conservatives who are unsure of Romney trying to find a candidate.

But regardless, your claim that Huckabee is taking Romney votes is completely unfounded at all.

[Ben Kenobi]

Because his strategy doesn't rely on early states...

And Thompson's strategy is different?

I love it Thompson is lazy for not winning Iowa and NH, but RudyG is 'clever' for doing the same thing.

Perception is everything.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Perception is everything.

You... um... do realize you are talking about a political race, right?

And of course Guiliani's campaign isn't based on the early states. It's based on Feb5th, when NY and NJ vote. Though I don't know how wise of a move it is.

And Guiliani isn't the guy who went from the 20s in the polls to 11%.

[Ramo]

Understanding American politics is everything.

And as I wrote in my edit, Giuliani outworked Thompson by about threefold in early states that he's not even trying to win...