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Predict the U.S. Midterm Elections!
We should have a prediction contest for the upcoming, November 7, U.S. midterm elections.
To make it simpler, i suggest just predicting the number of Republicans in the different bodies. After all, what most of us are interested in is whether the balance of power will shift or not in one or more of those bodies. Predicting just the number of Republicans (or Democrats for that matter) will also eliminate any concerns of how to deal with any independents being elected (mainly a concern in some of the Governors races, which I've included even though they won't affect the balance of power as such).
I propose a format where we each predict the total number of Republicans for the House, the Senate and the Governorships. Your score will be the combined number of seats that you're off for each body, with a "minus" in front of it. Example: Let's say there are 48 Republicans in the new Senate, and your guess was 46; you get a score of -2. If you'd predicted a total of 50 Republicans, you'd also have gotten a score of -2. Same format for the House and Governorships, and the total is added up. The higher the total (closer to zero), the better.
In addition, you get 5 points if you predict the exact number of Republicans in the new House of Representatives. Likewise, you get 5 points if you predict the correct number of Republicans in the new Senate - and 5 points if you predict the correct total number of Republican Governors (that is, newly elected/re-elected plus incumbents not up for election).
So the maximum possible score is 15, though most, if not all, of us will probably get a negative score.
Once you have posted your predictions, they cannot be changed. So you might want to wait until we're closer to the elections to try and get a better picture of where it's going - or, you might just go ahead and post them now, perhaps realising that these predictions are as much about gut feeling as anything else..
As a service, here are the current numbers of Republicans in each of the 3 categories - along with the numbers that are up for election, split by party affiliation:
House: 230 - Up for election: 435 (Rep.: 230, Dem.: 201, Independent: 1, Vacant: 3)
Senate: 55 - Up for election: 33 (Rep.: 15, Dem.: 17, Independent: 1)
Governors: 28 - Up for election: 36 (Rep.: 22, Dem.: 14)
We do not concern ourselves with whether seats are up for possible re-election, or whether the candidate is retiring, just the total number of Republican held seats after the election is what counts.
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My prediction (kind of hoping for an encore of the glorious 2004 spectacle, known as Night of the Headless Chickens on Apolyton
):
House: 221
Senate: 52
Governors: 24
To make it simpler, i suggest just predicting the number of Republicans in the different bodies. After all, what most of us are interested in is whether the balance of power will shift or not in one or more of those bodies. Predicting just the number of Republicans (or Democrats for that matter) will also eliminate any concerns of how to deal with any independents being elected (mainly a concern in some of the Governors races, which I've included even though they won't affect the balance of power as such).
I propose a format where we each predict the total number of Republicans for the House, the Senate and the Governorships. Your score will be the combined number of seats that you're off for each body, with a "minus" in front of it. Example: Let's say there are 48 Republicans in the new Senate, and your guess was 46; you get a score of -2. If you'd predicted a total of 50 Republicans, you'd also have gotten a score of -2. Same format for the House and Governorships, and the total is added up. The higher the total (closer to zero), the better.
In addition, you get 5 points if you predict the exact number of Republicans in the new House of Representatives. Likewise, you get 5 points if you predict the correct number of Republicans in the new Senate - and 5 points if you predict the correct total number of Republican Governors (that is, newly elected/re-elected plus incumbents not up for election).
So the maximum possible score is 15, though most, if not all, of us will probably get a negative score.
Once you have posted your predictions, they cannot be changed. So you might want to wait until we're closer to the elections to try and get a better picture of where it's going - or, you might just go ahead and post them now, perhaps realising that these predictions are as much about gut feeling as anything else..
As a service, here are the current numbers of Republicans in each of the 3 categories - along with the numbers that are up for election, split by party affiliation:
House: 230 - Up for election: 435 (Rep.: 230, Dem.: 201, Independent: 1, Vacant: 3)
Senate: 55 - Up for election: 33 (Rep.: 15, Dem.: 17, Independent: 1)
Governors: 28 - Up for election: 36 (Rep.: 22, Dem.: 14)
We do not concern ourselves with whether seats are up for possible re-election, or whether the candidate is retiring, just the total number of Republican held seats after the election is what counts.
---
My prediction (kind of hoping for an encore of the glorious 2004 spectacle, known as Night of the Headless Chickens on Apolyton
):House: 221
Senate: 52
Governors: 24
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