Predict the U.S. Midterm Elections!

[Dinner]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6390053

On another note which might be important to people's predictions NPR is reporting a 7% shift towards democrats among rural Americans in the last month. For the first time in recent memory a majority of rural people say they'd prefer Democrats in charge to Republicans. If this trend continues for the next two weeks, as it has for the last four weeks, then several of these even races may very well swing Democratic.

[Lars-E]

House 226
Senate 51
Governors 29

[Eli]

House 205
Senate 49
Governors 22

[Winston]

Here's an update of our predictions with just 10 days to go before the elections:

Admiral,
House: 210
Senate: 51
Governors: 23

Ben Kenobi,
House: 225
Senate: 54
Governors: 25

Bosh,
House: 212
Senate: 51
Governors: 22

Deity Dude,
House: 219
Senate: 52
Governors: 23

Eli,
House: 205
Senate: 49
Governors: 22

Lars-E,
House: 226
Senate: 51
Governors: 29

Ninot,
House: 205
Senate: 52
Governors: 22

Ramo,
House: 210
Senate: 51
Governors: 21

Rufus T. Firefly,
House: 215
Senate: 50
Governors: 20

SlowwHand,
House: 209
Senate: 52
Governors: 26

Whoha,
House: 235
Senate: 56
Governors: 30

Winston,
House: 221
Senate: 52
Governors: 24

---

People who have made incomplete or otherwise ambiguous predictions:

civman2000
Odin
Oerdin
The Emperor Fabulous

You guys will have to stick to the format, including the prediction of Governors, if you want to have your bids compared to the others.

[Jon Miller]

JM

House 196
Senate 48
Governors 20

JM

[chequita guevara]

I predict a landslide for the Democrats because their base is really charged up, while the GOP base is demoralized. Immediately followed by Bush declaring Congress to be material supporters of terrorism and arresting them all and torturing them until they confess.

[SlowwHand]

Oh, that's definitive. NUMBERS, you commie!

¿Comprende usted inglés?

[Arcite]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
I predict a landslide for the Democrats because their base is really charged up, while the GOP base is demoralized. Immediately followed by Bush declaring Congress to be material supporters of terrorism and arresting them all and torturing them until they confess.

Cheney is already busy filling tubs with ice water for dunking err I mean, congradulating the winners...

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
Oh, that's definitive. NUMBERS, you commie!

¿Comprende usted inglés?

Pardoneme, no hablo español.

[DanS]

Senate 49
House 210
Governors 22

Steele may show unexpectedly strong in Maryland. Gibbons may show unexpectedly weak in Nevada.

If the Dems don't win both chambers, the party is toothless.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by DanS
If the Dems don't win both chambers, the party is toothless.

This is the new GOP party line, but it's nonsense. To get to 51, the Dems have to win two out of three toss-up races in GOP-leaning states, and two of those three feature GOP incumbents. There's no shame in leaving the GOP with the Senate this year.

But if the Dems can't take the Senate in 2008, then they're toothless and hopeless.

[Berzerker]

Dems win house 225-209-1
Pubs keep senate 51-48-1
Dems win gub 26-24

[Dinner]

Originally posted by DanS
If the Dems don't win both chambers, the party is toothless.

Not sure about that. The house should be more then enough to end one party rule.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Yow. Now this is interesting. Idaho's 1st is the district formerly represented by Helen "Black Helicoptors" Chenoweth, on of the most rabidly conservative rep of recent memory:

Earlier this month, the NRCC scrambled to make a $375,000 ad buy in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, a contest Democrats in our wildest dreams never expected to win. The results so far: A new Mason-Dixon poll shows it's a dead heat.

State Sen. Bill Sali, whom fellow Republicans describe with two words - "fricking" and "idiot" - has 39 percent; Democratic businessman Larry Grant is at 37 percent. In 2004, the district voted 68 percent for Bush.

The same poll also shows the Republican candidate for governor, retiring Rep. Butch Otter, in a dead heat with Democrat Jerry Brady, who lost by 15 points when he ran for governor in 2002. Otter and Brady are in a statistical tie in a state where one county voted for Bush 9-1.

http://www.slate.com/id/2152456/nav/tap1/#ThePotatoRebellion

I hadn't realized things had even gotten this bad in the reddest Red States.

[DanS]

That's why the Dems should be able to win with the thinnest outline of a plan and organization.

The only consolation for the GOP is that so far the Dems haven't displayed any coherent plan or organization, unlike, say, the Contract with America in '94.