CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Ben Kenobi]

Is your methodology to apply the provincial swing in the polls on a riding by riding basis on the assumption that a provincial change of support will be felt proportionally in all ridiings??

If so that sounds like a reasonable method but it would fail in any riding where there is an overriding spcific issue influencing voting or if there is an exceptional candidate (either good or bad)

It's a combination of both. What I do, is first I put the polls in to assume that the change will be proportionate, and see which ridings swing. Then I look at lists of ridings considered to be 'safe' for each party. As in the case of Quebec, one 'safe' liberal seat fell to the Conservatives, but all the others corroborated well with these lists.

The first step narrows down the number of ridings that I have to consider, while the second one helps me look at things riding by riding, which I think is more reasonable then just going by the poll numbers. Tries to connect the polls with the real world so to speak.

[Ben Kenobi]

LIB 46
CON 54
NDP 6

NDP (5) solid

Toronto-Danforth
Hamilton Centre
Sault-Ste. Marie
Windsor-Tecumseh
Windsor West

NDP (1) marginal

Kenora

LIB (40) solid

Davenport
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
Scarborough-Agincourt
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Rouge River
Scarborough Southwest
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Willowdale
York Centre
York South-Weston
York West
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Brampton-Springdale
Markham-Uniondale
Mississauga-Brampton South
Mississauge East-Cooksville
Oak Ridges-Markham
Oakville
Pickering-Scarborough East
Richmond Hill
Thornhill
Vaughan
Welland
Kingston and the Islands
Ottawa Vanier
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay Superior North
Guelph
Huron-Bruce
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener Waterloo
London North Centre

LIB (7) marginal

Beaches-East York
Parkdale-High Park
Trinity-Spadina
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Nickel Belt
Timmins-James Bay
Ottawa Centre

CON (27) solid

Dufferin-Caledon
Durham
Niagara Falls
Niagara West-Glanbrook
Oshawa
York-Simcoe
Carleton-Mississippi Mills
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Leeds-Grenville
Nepean-Carleton
Northumberland-Quinte West
Prince Edward-Hastings
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Haldimand-Norfolk
Cambridge
Elgin-Middlesex-London
Essex
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Oxford
Perth-Wellington
Wellington-Halton Hills
Simcoe Grey
Simcoe North

CON (27) marginal

Etobicoke-Lakeshore (CON)
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (CON)
Burlington (CON)
Halton (CON)
Hamilton Mountain (CON)
St. Catherines (CON)
Whitby-Oshawa (CON)
Ottawa West-Nepean (CON)
Peterborough (CON)
Nipissing-Timiskaming (CON)
Parry Sound-Muskoka (CON)
Brant (CON)
Chatham-Kent-Essex (CON)
Kitchener-Conestoga (CON)
London West (CON)
Barrie (CON)
Ottawa South
Ottawa Orleans
Glengarry Prescott Russell
Newmarket Aurora
Ajax Pickering
Brampton West
Mississauga-Streetsville
Mississauga-South
Mississauga-Erindale
Sarnia-Lambton
London-Fanshawe

[Ben Kenobi]

ATLANTIC CANADA

Nova Scotia

NDP solid

Halifax
Sackville-Eastern Shore

NDP marginal

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

LIB solid

Cape Breton Canso
Halifax West
Sydney-Victoria

CON solid

Central Nova
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
South Shore- St. Margaret's

CON marginal

Kings-Hants
West Nova

NOVA SCOTIA TOTAL:

CON 5
NDP 3
LIB 3

New Brunswick

NDP solid

Acadie-Bathurst

LIB solid

Beausejour
Miramichi
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe

LIB Marginal

Madawaska-Restigouche

CON solid

Fundy Royal
New Brunswick Southwest

CON marginal

Fredericton
Saint John
Tobique-Mactaquac

New Brunswick totals:

LIB 3
CON 5
NDP 1

PEI

LIB solid

Cardigan
Charlottetown
Egmont
Malpeque

PEI totals:

LIB 4

Newfoundland

LIB solid

Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte
Labrador
Random-Burin-St. George's

CON solid
St. John's East
St. John's South-Mount Pearl

CON marginal

Avalon
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor

Newfoundland totals:

3 LIB
4 CON

ATLANTIC CANADA TOTALS:

CON 14
LIB 13
NDP 4

[Flubber]

Aren't there 11 seats in NS??


ON your methods it makes sense. If I understand correctly you do apply the poll number proportuionally to the ridings EXCEPT when you have a reason not to do so.

So if the Liberals are calling a seat "safe" that they won by 8% last time in a province they are down 10% in, you would take a second more subjective look to assess the riding.

My only question is where you get the indicators of which seats are considered safe for a party.



Oh and if your model for Atlantic Canafa comes true, I predict a long bad night for the Liberals.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Newfoundland

LIB solid

Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte
Labrador
Random-Burin-St. George's

CON solid
St. John's East
St. John's South-Mount Pearl

CON marginal

Avalon
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor

Newfoundland totals:

3 LIB
4 CON

ATLANTIC CANADA TOTALS:

CON 14
LIB 13
NDP 4

The first 5 calls above for NL fit the historical pattern in NL of Conservative in the city and Liberal in the rural areas. Avalon while rural has some good Conservative roots and is mainly communities within a couple of hours of St Johns . .. so that one as Conservative makes some sense.

But the Bonavista Grand Falls call suprises me. This district contains some areas that have been solidly Liberal for years and years. Redistricting did add some more Conservative portions but the cynical thought that this was to remove them from a more hotly contested riding and put them somewhere where their impact would be merely to bring the Liberal win from massive to merely comfortable. Perhaps the strength of support for the Liberals was less than the support for the MP that served there for so many years.

[Ben Kenobi]

Conservatives lost by only 3k last time. It's one of the more reasonable flips, and one might say more reasonable then Avalon.

And I accidentally omitted St. Margeret's from Nova Scotia, which has been corrected.

[Ben Kenobi]

So if the Liberals are calling a seat "safe" that they won by 8% last time in a province they are down 10% in, you would take a second more subjective look to assess the riding.

My only question is where you get the indicators of which seats are considered safe for a party.

Precisely. And those ridings appear as 'marginal' Conservative ridings. Helps to break down massive areas like Ontario into key ridings.

If the Conservatives are winning in areas like Mississauga, then it is likely they will take the rest of the marginal seats.

Safe ridings? Where the Liberals have traditionally dominated. In the case of Ontario, generally a 10k barrier will not be overcome if the riding is outside the GTA.

[Ben Kenobi]

Oh and if your model for Atlantic Canafa comes true, I predict a long bad night for the Liberals.

The poll had them at -16% in Atlantic Canada.

[Ben Kenobi]

Manitoba

CON 7
LIB 3
NDP 3
IND 1

NDP solid (3)

Elmwood-Transcona
Winnipeg Centre
Winnipeg North

LIB solid (3)

St. Boniface
Winnipeg South
Winnipeg South Centre

CON solid (7)

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
Kildonan-St. Paul
Brandon-Souris
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
Portage-Lisgar
Provencher
Selkirk-Interlake

IND marginal (1)

Churchill - Desjarlais

[Ben Kenobi]

BC

I know I live here, and it should be easier. This is the biggest disagreement I have had with the poll numbers. They said that the Conservatives would win 30 seats, and I only see 22.

Just too many marginal seats for the Conservatives to expect them to win them all.

NDP solid

Vancouver East
Nanaimo Cowichan

NDP marginal

Victoria
BC Southern Interior
Esquimault-Juan de Fuca
Burnaby Douglas

LIB solid

Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South

LIB marginal

Burnaby New Westminster
Newton-North Delta
Fleetwood-Pt Kells
Vancouver Centre

CON solid

Cariboo Prince George
Prince George Peace River
Okanagan Shuswap
Okanagan Coquihalla
Kootenay-Columbia
Kelowna-Lake Country
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Langley
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
Abbotsford
Delta-Richmond East

CON marginal

Vancouver Island North
Nanaimo-Alberni
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Richmond
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky country
North Vancouver
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Surrey North

British Columbia results:

22 CON
6 NDP
6 LIB

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
CON (27) marginal...
.
.
.
London-Fanshawe

Really?

I'm relatively new to the riding (14 months) but it would appear to be an NDP vs Liberal race.

On what evidence do you see the Conservatives squeeking out a victory here?

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Conservatives lost by only 3k last time. It's one of the more reasonable flips, and one might say more reasonable then Avalon.

Not really-- Avalon did go 58% Liberal last time, but last time the Liberal candidate was John Efford who had IMMENSE personal popularity at the time (when he was a provincial politician he routinely won the largest margin of victory). Efford attracted a lot of voters and if he had switched parties back then he would probably still have won the district by a wide margin.

But this time around Efford is not running as he resigned a few months back due to health reasons. Thats why I see Avalon as a tougher disctrict-- it was an individual candidate thing.

This time the Liberal candidate is a local lawyer-- a smart guy but with nowhere near the personal pull of Efford.


Conversely, last time the Conservatives ran a "name "guy in the Bonavista riding and still lost. This time the Conservative candidate is far less well known so will be relying on swings in the party vote more


Overall though, In the last 3 elections the Conservatives won 3, 2 and 2 seats so 3 is a good result and to even have a sniff of getting to 4 seats of 7 would be a major victory

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm relatively new to the riding (14 months) but it would appear to be an NDP vs Liberal race.

On what evidence do you see the Conservatives squeeking out a victory here?

Pat O'Brien was a rather social conservative Liberal, who ended up as the independent. I see plenty of his support bleeding off to the conservatives, since he is not running.

All they need is about 3k or so votes to bleed off to the Conservatives, and they will end up ahead of the NDP. You are fortunate to be in one of the most exciting ridings, outside of Deslarlais' in Manitoba.

[Ben Kenobi]

Conversely, last time the Conservatives ran a "name "guy in the Bonavista riding and still lost. This time the Conservative candidate is far less well known so will be relying on swings in the party vote more

A 16% shift away from the liberals cures all kinds of ills. If their support holds up, I don't see 3k as too difficult to make up.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Pat O'Brien was a rather social conservative Liberal, who ended up as the independent. I see plenty of his support bleeding off to the conservatives, since he is not running this time.

Indeed, Pat O'Brien is urging people to vote Conservative this time around.

That said, did the Conservatives not finish third in this riding last time round? I've seen no polling specific to London-Fanshaw but the sign war would indicate Mathyyson (NDP) is in a strong position.

I hope your prediction is right. The Conservatives have my vote (there isn't a Libertarian on the ballot) but I suspect it is a long shot.

I have a history of turning Liberal ridings blue (came from Prince Edward-Hastings where the riding held by a former Cabinet Minister changed last time round) so maybe my "charm" will hold. Any other ridings I should move to?