Are You Ready for Some Football - Week 13

[Tuberski]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

But a good defense shows you haw the tricks are done.

You mean like when Tampa got beat by the Falcons a month ago?

Keep underestimating them. It bodes well for the Falcons.

See, you prove my point, Tampa underestimated them the first time, but they learned the tricks and blanked them.

ACK!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Oh so, Utah is a better team than Cal, Michigan, Miami, Florida State?

Actually, yes. I'd take Utah head to head over them.

True, Atlanta will go to the playoffs, but Tampa will be them 7 out of 10 times.

Doubt it. A desperate team wins at home, after getting a rousing pep talk from their coach, and everyone thinks it means something .

I'd take the opposite odds. Atlanta beats Tampa 7 out of 10.

[Tuberski]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Oh so, Utah is a better team than Cal, Michigan, Miami, Florida State?

Actually, yes. I'd take Utah head to head over them.

True, Atlanta will go to the playoffs, but Tampa will be them 7 out of 10 times.

Doubt it. A desperate team wins at home, after getting a rousing pep talk from their coach, and everyone thinks it means something .

I'd take the opposite odds. Atlanta beats Tampa 7 out of 10.

Remember that next week when they have another bad game and lose to Oakland.

ACK!

[Imran Siddiqui]

We'll see. This team has been unfairly attacked since they went 2-0. They've been called 'overrated' so many times you wonder if there are any pundits left who are rating them so high to call them overrated.

When they go 13-3 or 12-4, we'll still hear the haters.

[Frozzy]

Imran: Atlanta are the KC of 2004 when it comes to a misleading record. Who have they played? Two winning teams for crying out loud. TWO! Heck, their record is even more misleading that KC's.

Oh so, Utah is a better team than Cal, Michigan, Miami, Florida State?

On the same side of that, you can ask is Atlanta better than any of the AFC divisional leaders & wild card teams? They have an equal or better record than 3 of them...

Doubt it. A desperate team wins at home, after getting a rousing pep talk from their coach, and everyone thinks it means something .

Yes, it does mean something. It means they have a motivation and the knowledge they can still make the playoffs, and you can see more of it if they can cling onto it.

I can sum up this entire post in three or four words: Atlanta's success = misleading

[Tuberski]

If they finish 11-5, I'll be suprised.

ACK!

[Imran Siddiqui]

you can ask is Atlanta better than any of the AFC divisional leaders & wild card teams

Of their two winning teams, one is the AFC West leader and the other is left out of the Wild Card because of a tie record. And I think they got a good shot of beating both of those teams again (at least an even shot).

It means they have a motivation and the knowledge they can still make the playoffs

Until the let down happens in a week or so. Tampa is very inconsistent this year. Another loss and it's totally uphill for them.

If they finish 11-5, I'll be suprised.

I'll delight in your suprise then .

[Frozzy]

If they finish 11-5, I'll be suprised.

They probably will. They still have a ridiculously easy schedule coming up: OAK, CAR, NO, SEA.

I can see them losing to Oakland and Carolina or Seattle.

[Tuberski]

I can see them winning all 4 or even, losing all 4 games.

ACK!

[Frozzy]

Of their two winning teams, one is the AFC West leader and the other is left out of the Wild Card because of a tie record. And I think they got a good shot of beating both of those teams again (at least an even shot).

The entire AFC has a couple more than two winning teams

Until the let down happens in a week or so. Tampa is very inconsistent this year. Another loss and it's totally uphill for them.

Ditto Carolina, but people are touting them as the 6th playoff team... While they have a chance they'll keep going.

Oh, and not planning on rebutting ATL's ridiculously weak schedule are we?

[Ben Kenobi]

Nah, I think they'll beat NO.

And yes, Atlanta is not as good as their record indicates. That doesn't make me a hater, now does it?

[Jaguar]

My current AFC predictions:

1 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has the head-to-head advantage over New England. Both have a game against the underrated New York Jets remaining, so it's possible that both teams could end 14-2. Of the two teams, New England is playing a little better right now, but the Steelers just have to win as many as New England to keep the number one seed. Pittsburgh has some tough teams to beat still remaining, (Jets, Ravens, and Bills) but the Steelers have shown that they can beat anyone.

2 New England
New England faces the two worst teams in the NFL in its last four games. Its other two games are against Cincinatti, which still desperately clings onto playoff hope, and the excellent New York Jets. These two teams are both dangerous, and if the Pats don't beat both of them, their chances of taking Homefield Advantage Throughout are next to none.

3 Indianapolis
Although the Colts can't hope to compete with the two juggernauts topping the divison, they have a long winning streak going and they are very likely to take third. If the Colts fall to fourth, the New York Jets will be tough. The Colts can extend their winning streak to six against Houston next week, but their remaining three games are tough. Baltimore, San Diego, and Denver are all playoff contenders, and each one will be fighting for position. San Diego will be looking for the opportunity to snatch 3rd away from the Colts, but in a battle of the AFC's two best quarterbacks, Manning should prevail.

4 San Diego
San Diego should be able to defeat three of the remaining teams on its schedule and clinch its division with 12 wins. But the game against Indianapolis will be too tough for them. Both teams rely almost entirely on offense to win. But there is a huge gap between the number one Colts offense and the weaker San Diego offense.

5 New York
Among the top six teams in the NFL, but they have the misfortune of being in the Patriots' division. They have no hope of winning their division at all, but no team looks anywhere near strong enough to challenge them as the first wildcard team.

6 Denver
Denver put up a good showing against San Diego, but weren't quite good enough to win. However, they are still a solid 7-5 with three easy games ahead against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Titans, who have a combined 10-26 record. Their last game is against Indianapolis, but as long as they play solidly before then, their playoff spot will already be assured. And even if they lose, there's a good chance that their very next game will be a rematch in the playoffs.

Honerable mention:
-Buffalo is actually a very hot team, and they have an easy schedule remaining. They're in what is by far the best division in the NFL, but they've gotten all their New England and New York games over with. They're 6-2 in the last eight games, with losses only against Baltimore and New England. They face three mediocre teams, but their last game is against the Steelers, so their playoff hopes aren't too good. 9-7 will probably not cut it in the AFC.

[Frozzy]

I project:

1) Pittsburgh (14-2) (L Baltimore)
2) New England (14-2) (L New York (J))
3) Indianapolis (13-3)
4) San Diego Super Chargers (12-4) (L Indianapolis)
5) New York Jets (12-4) (L Pittsburgh)
6) Baltimore Ravens (10-6) (L Indianapolis) OR Denver Broncos (10-6 (L Indianapolis)

In the event of #6 occuring, the Denver Broncos would make the playoffs as a result of Denver having a projection of an .800 record vs. common opponents, while Baltimore has a .400 record.

NFC:

1) Philadelphia (14-2) (L St. Louis)
2) Atlanta (11-5) (L Carolina, Seattle)
3) Green Bay (10-6) (L Jacksonville)
4) Seattle (9-7) (L Minnesota, New York (J))
5) Minnesota (10-6) (L Green Bay)
6) Carolina (9-7)

Therefore:

AFC Wildcard Week:
DEN @ IND (again): IND wins.
NYJ @ SD: NYJ wins.

NFC Wildcard Week:
CAR @ GB: GB wins
MIN @ SEA: MIN wins

AFC divisional round:
IND @ NE: Too close to call... but I'll say NE.
NYJ @ PIT: PIT wins

NFC Divisional Round:
MIN @ PHI: PHI wins
GB @ ATL: GB wins

AFC Championship Game:
NE @ PIT: NE wins

NFC Championship Game
GB @ PHI: PHI wins

Superbowl XXXIX:
NE - PHI: I'll leave this one up to you

[Jaguar]

Frozzy's right about almost everything. I think he's a little harsh on the three 10-1 teams. At least one, and probably two of them will finish their last 4 games undefeated.

Also, I can't envision a situation where StL beats the best team in the NFC but can't pull a 9-7 record. St Louis will win the NFC West. Certain people found that laughable when I said it a couple weeks ago, but they're getting closer and closer.

Giving Minnesota a 10-6 record is a little charitable. Same with Carolina at 9-7. St Louis, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay remain on their schedule, and they're likely to drop one of those.

Carolina might make it, but it can only be at 8-8.

I'm calling
Philadelphia 15-1
Green Bay 10-6
Atlanta 10-6
St Louis 8-8
Minnesota 9-7
Seattle or Carolina 8-8

[Ben Kenobi]

Here's my projections:

AFC

NE:15-1
PIT:14-2
SD:12-4
INDY:12-4
NYJ:11-5
DEN:10-6
(BAL)10-6 and out.

NFC:
PHI:15-1
ATL:12-4
GB:11-5
SEA:8-8
MIN:10-6
CAR:8-8
(STLut)