Le Tour de Lance

[Mercator]

Originally posted by Flubber
It appears my stage 12 prediction came true. There was a big Armstrong attack and whole chunks of the field fell off the back.

Except you thought Ullrich, Heras and Hamilton would hang on, and they all fell through. It was mostly the new guys who did well today.

The past few years you'd always see a small group with most of the favorites in it, and a few new names, which then blew up when Armstrong attacked. But this year all the favorites dropped out, and Armstrong was left with relative newcomers like Klöden, Basso, Mancebo and Sastre.



But still... There's plenty opportunities left to take back time. The Alpes are quite different from the Pyrenees, and much more suited for Ullrich, for instance.

Well, tomorrow it's gonna really happen. All the differences today were made on the last climb, and tomorrow's last climb is longer and steeper, so...

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Mercator


Except you thought Ullrich, Heras and Hamilton would hang on, and they all fell through. It was mostly the new guys who did well today.

True but my prediction was that there would be gaps and that Armstrong, Hamilton, Ulrich and Heras would put gaps on the bulk of the field. Each of those four finished within 2 minute 57 of the lead while Voeckler was another minute back. A full 116 riders ( the bulk of the field)had times of 8 minutes or greater behind the leader.

So my prediction was precisely correct. I never predicted the stage winnner and absolutely figured there would be some folks I did not name among the leaders. Actually no suprise to see mayo, Basso, Moreau and leipheimer among the leaders on a given stage .. .

The true test will be tomorrow-- a good cyclist can possibly gut their way up two category one climbs. But tomorrow has SEVEN categorized climbs includinf a 15.9 km finish at the Plateau-de-Bielle (hors categorie). This is the BIG test and only the very best will make it in good time. With an easy stage Sunday and a rest day Monday, there is very little reason to leave much in reserve.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Sava
Lance Armstrong is a steroid using asshat!

Prove it. The guy is tested like a hundred times a year-- off season and on and has never had a positive test. He's probably the most scrutinized athlete in the world.

Originally posted by Sava
I hope he falls off his bike again!

I don't . .. I want the best rider to win. If that's Armstrong so be it. If its someone else I will applaud them just as much.

I bicycle a fair bit and have an appreciation for how hard it is to cycle 160 to 200 km day after day. Its tough. Add the blistering race pace they have set and some of those impossibly high mountains and ANYONE you simply completes the thing has my utmost respect.

[Drake Tungsten]

Armstrong is sewing the Tour victory up as we speak. The only thing that can stop him now is an accident or a surprising performance in the next week by Basso or some of the other lesser riders who are still within striking distance.

[pchang]

Lance Armstrong is definitely the favorite now, but things are starting to get interesting. Tyler Hamilton - gone. Iban Mayo is pretty much finished. Ulrich is almost 7 minutes behind. I think TMobile must switch to Kloden now. Along with Basso, we are definitely seeing a changing of the guard. Basso is clearly Armstrong's biggest threat.

[Lefty Scaevola]

Originally posted by alva
What rule was changed?

They changed some of the scoring rules for the teams, all of which dhanges convinietly devalued relative strents of Armstrong's team.

[DanS]

Another very strong performance by Armstrong.

Go Lance!

[alva]

Originally posted by pchang
Lance Armstrong is definitely the favorite now, but things are starting to get interesting. Tyler Hamilton - gone. Iban Mayo is pretty much finished. Ulrich is almost 7 minutes behind. I think TMobile must switch to Kloden now. Along with Basso, we are definitely seeing a changing of the guard. Basso is clearly Armstrong's biggest threat.

How does this make things more interesying???? The tour is all but over...
-

They changed some of the scoring rules for the teams, all of which dhanges convinietly devalued relative strents of Armstrong's team.

All they did was capped possible time loss in the team trial, to favour the good individuals in poor/bad teams.
-
Kudos to Lance though

[pchang]

Originally posted by alva
How does this make things more interesying???? The tour is all but over...

Basso and Kloden are real threats. The tour is not all but over. It is more interesting because we are not really sure what Basso and Kloden can do. Basso is a great climber, but has he improved his time trial? If so, he could actually win. Kloden is better at time trials and he may be more suited to the Alps. For me, the question marks are bigger. The strengths and weaknesses of riders like Ulrich, Heras, Mayo, etc. are much better known. It is also more interesting to me because I think we are seeing the birth of the next rivalry (Basso vs. Kloden).

[alva]

Kloden can't match Lance in the moutains or in a time trial, he's good but not good enough.
Bassa can match but not better Lance in the mountains and will loose a lot of time in the time trial, add to that, that none of them have ever been in tyhis position.
Pressure in getting bigger etc...and will they be able to stay at this level for the full three weeks...???

The only one who can beat Lance, is Lance himself.

[Flubber]

to Voeckler--- he fell off from the lead pack on something like 6 separate occasions yesterday and just kept gutting it out and fighting back--- he does not appear to be strong enough in the mountains to win the thing but his will and his gutsy breakneck descents likely mean he will hold the yellow unitil Tuesday

It seemed likehe was on a yoyo as compared to Armstrong and Basso-- he woul fall far far away but then came back up before falling again

[pchang]

I think this is why Lance won the stage. He decided he needed the 20 second time bonus for winning. He also wanted a psychological edge on Basso (I can beat you if I want to). If he could do it over again, he probably would have pushed to win the previous stage too.

[Mercator]

I don't think so. Armstrong let Basso win on Friday. They were both together at the finish on Saturday. They talked to eachother before the finish and probably decided that it was now Armstrong's turn. That was only natural.

The only alternative would have been a fight over it in the last kilometers and that would only have played against them in regards to their nearest opponents. The main reason Armstrong jumped over him when he did was to make sure he won, and Basso got the same finishing time.

And some more to Voeckler. He did fantastic!

[Flubber]

Rest day now


Looking ahead

Stage 15-- looks like another day for the mountaineers-- I expect Armstrong in yellow by days end as his team will likely follow the same startegy as the last few days. I admire Voeckler's tenacity but his lead is two small and the Col d'Echarasson at the 127 km mark should be where he gets dropped for good-- I don't think he can yo-yo effectively a second time although this guy has suprised me thus far

Stage 16-- L'Alpe d'Huez

I love this mountain and this stage has no down hill at all .. . just a 15.5 km time trial climb. Armstron should be riding last with the luxury of knowing how hard he needs to go. I wonder if one of the riders that is out of contention for the GC, might make a gut-busting effort to at least try to win a stage. I'm talking the kind of debilitating -hurt yourself kind of effort inconsistent with staying with the leaders in the following days I actually don't expect much in the GC to change on this stage except Voeckler dropping a bit more down.

Stage 17

This is the last killer mountain stage. By then, the pecking order shopld be pretty set although expect Basso and Kloden to challenge hard. Armstrong will likely just mark those two

Stage 18 has much smaller mountains and I expect that any contenders would be trying to save themselves for the time trial the next day. The mountains are small enough that you might see attempted breakaways from riders that are not great climbers

Satge 19 is a pretty flat 55 km timetrial which Armstrong hopes to be a formality. he said he would be comfortable if he held a 4 minute lead going in.

Stage 20 is the procession to Paris. By tradition, this stage is more a parade than a race as the peloton escorts the winner into Paris. Racing only really starts in Paris itself as sprinters go for intermediate points and the stage win

[pchang]

Except for 1989 when Lemond beat Fignon by 8 seconds. One can only hope for that kind of drama this time, but it doesn't look like this will happen this year.