Le Tour de Lance

[Drake Tungsten]

I have a confession to make...

I love Richard Virenque.

That was a hell of a display he put on yesterday...

[alva]

Bleh..he broke his word again..,

Impressive though

[Mercator]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
I love Richard Virenque.

Me too.

And he's going for a record as well, by the way. If he wins the mountain jersey he'll be the only one with 7.

Voeckler also managed nicely. In fact, his whole team did pretty damn good... But Saturday is the real deal.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Mercator

But Saturday is the real deal.

yup, I expect the yellow to change hands by Saturday but don't discount Fridays stage as one where the fild might be challenged.


The trip to La Mongie is flat for most of its 197 km but ends with two category 1 climbs of about 12 km each. With the finish at the summit of the second, there will be no opportunity for the poorer climbers to make up any ground lost here.

My prediction is that Armstrong, Ullrich, Heras and Hamilton will all gain on the bulk of the field including on Voeckler who may manage to hang on to the jersey for one more day

Stage 13 on Saturday will be another huge test with a hors category mountain at the finish . .. and thats after completing 6 other categorized climbs . This is the stage where the poorer climbers can lose a half an hour or more. Its one where the sprinters just hope to finish well enough to beat the elimination time.

The favorites can go super-hard on these stages as Sunday's stage is incredibly flat so the leaders can have their teams drag them along and then Monday is a rest day .. . All in all, there's no reason for less than full efforts in the stages on Friday and Saturday.

The final week sees a whole lot more hilly terrain including some hors category mountains but its currently impossible to know what the race will look like by then. I just know that I don't forsee Voeckler in yellow by Sunday

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
So what do you guys think are going to be the crucial stages this year? I'm thinking 13, 16 & 17. Tough mountain stages and, with Mayo already out, seemingly ideal places for Armstrong to bury lesser climbers like Ulrich.

I agree but I don't discount stage 12 as an important stage as well. Two category one climbs with gradients of over 6.5% and each over 12 km long -- Thats tough-- I don't expect anyone to win the thing on this stage but I think a whole bunch of folks could see their hopes ( fantasies??) for the overall classification evaporate.

The rider that scares me is Heras. He used to ride an incredible pace for Armstrong and it will be interesting to see how he fares as a team leader. Also it is unsure how strong the rest of his team is. Postal and Tmobile managed to keep 5-6 riders with their leaders through the hills today while apparently heras only had two of his Liberty teammates near at the finish. Is the team a little weaker OR did they make a tactical decision to rest the team as much as possible today?

[Flubber]

Originally posted by pchang
What dod you mean by the best hill climber? There is a special jersey (red polka dot) for the best climber and the winner of the tour rarely wins this.

For obvious reasons-- Contesting all the intermediate hill points would require large efforts. People attempting to wn the overall classification don't make extra efforts when it will not garner them time advantages.


Riders going for the green or polka dot jersey will make maximum efforts on certain stages to pick up points but then accept that they will lose major amounts of time when not many points are up for grabs. For example O'grady, hushvold and Mcewen will likely just hang with the pack for the next few stages. Time is irrelevant to them as long as they remain in contention for the sprint points.

Virenque had a courageous stage win but efforts like that will usually hurt your time in the long run. I do expect to see Virenque go off the front again in the mountains-- he may even win another stage, but I'm betting he also struggles mightily and loses a lot of time somwhere along the way. That type of effort has to take a lot out of you

[Drake Tungsten]

The rider that scares me is Heras. He used to ride an incredible pace for Armstrong and it will be interesting to see how he fares as a team leader. Also it is unsure how strong the rest of his team is. Postal and Tmobile managed to keep 5-6 riders with their leaders through the hills today while apparently heras only had two of his Liberty teammates near at the finish. Is the team a little weaker OR did they make a tactical decision to rest the team as much as possible today?

His team is weaker. Heras is a world-class climber and a legitimate threat to Armstrong, but his lesser team makes me fear him less than Hamilton or Ullrich. He's also over 2 minutes back now, which doesn't bode well for his chances.

[Drake Tungsten]

Haha! Ullrich is cracking on the final climb as I type this! I wish I could be watching this...

[Drake Tungsten]

Ullrich loses 2m 26s on Armstrong! And Ullrich was the first of Armstrong's main competitors to finish. A great day!

[pchang]

Levi Leipheimer is only 3:00 behind Armstrong. Perhaps he will be Armstrong's biggest challenger this tour.

[Drake Tungsten]

Ivan Basso is a bigger threat than Leipheimer.

[pchang]

What now for TMobile

Will they switch to supporting Kloden instead of Ullrich?

[Flubber]

Re: What now for TMobile

Originally posted by pchang
Will they switch to supporting Kloden instead of Ullrich?

teams wouldn't usually abandon their leader quite that quickly. Kloden is a good two and a half minutes up on Ulrich now but he doesn't have a history at the tour which would lead the team to quickly jump to him as their leader.

Just to give Kloden a chance, I could see them using a strategy where both Ullrich and Kloden are protected until crunch time . .. . but then if Ulrich is strong, I can see Kloden having to take the role of leading for him. If Ulrich starts to get dropped again, I can see the strategy change

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Ullrich loses 2m 26s on Armstrong! And Ullrich was the first of Armstrong's main competitors to finish. A great day!

It appears my stage 12 prediction came true. There was a big Armstrong attack and whole chunks of the field fell off the back.

One minor suprise was how well Voecker held up, only dropping 3:59. Also Basso seems to be showing an ability to contend with Armstrong in the mountains. Tomorrow will likely tell the tale when they all face the Plateau de Beille

[Sava]

Lance Armstrong is a steroid using asshat! I hope he falls off his bike again!