Le Tour de Lance

[SpencerH]

So the consensus is that you can win on the flat but only if you're competitive in the mountains.

Its funny but I can remember Indurain nipping up the pyrenees pretty handily perhaps it was selective viewing.

[Mercator]

Originally posted by SpencerH
So the consensus is that you can win on the flat but only if you're competitive in the mountains.

Only if by "flat" you mean time trials. Otherwise I can only think of two ways someone could actually win on the flat:
- With lots of luck. Problems due to the weather and other accidents cause all opponents to be set back significantly (like Mayo today), and then the time trials and some daring tactical play finishes them off.
- A relatively unknown rider, or a group of riders, go on a long solo on the flat and finish 8+ minutes ahead by grace of the peloton. He then manages to surprise everybody and holds up in the mountains.

Its funny but I can remember Indurain nipping up the pyrenees pretty handily perhaps it was selective viewing.

Well, he certainly did do just fine, but I don't think he ever actually won a mountain stage, for instance.

[pchang]

Because of the physics of the Peloton, it is almost impossible to get and keep a large lead on flat stages. In time trials, there is no Peloton and individuals can distinguish themselves. In mountain stages, wind resistance is a long second to gravity in the force working against the riders and so individuals can distinguish themselves.

[Straybow]

Exactly, so making the Alpe d'Huez a time trial isn't going to change things for the strong hill climbers. It will help the average joes who might otherwise get impeded in the pack, but the leaders can make their own pace anyway.

On the other hand, separating Alpe from the 180km lead-in might make a big difference. Lance always said he doesn't get to peak performance until 100km into the day. That's why he liked Alpe d'Huez better than the Pyrannees.

/me bows out now that he has exhausted his entire knowledge of T de F

[Drake Tungsten]

Isn't Hamilton 33? 8 wins, starting when he's 35, would be quite an achievement

Not really. He is American...

[alva]

Well, he certainly did do just fine, but I don't think he ever actually won a mountain stage, for instance.

He didn't, in fact he never won one open stage ( IE, he only won time trials and IIRC only lost one )
He was good enough to win mountain stages but left them to others to 'gain' their support, he was only interested in winning the whole thing, not parts of it. Good tactics.
-

and if anyone should have a problem with steroid rules changing, it should be jan ulrich, who was caught and banned for a year, yet no one ever says that. thye arer all convinved that armstrong cheats, but he has never been caught once in 6 years.

He was caught doing XTC.

with how the team finishes and stuff.. i forget exactly - but they also changed the Alpe d'Huez stage. it used to be a climb up that hill after 180 km of flats. now they cut it into two stages, and made the uphill a time trial.

???
They change all stages every year, besides Alpe d'Huez - though famous - is not really the top 'hill'* out there.

The Alpes being old mountains are more suited for the power cyclists,while the pyrenees are more for the real specialists.
The Alps are more even, though they take longer, the total hight is about the same, maximum is about 2000M, which is btw a magical barier.
The reason being that it's much harder to take in oxygen past that point, for Example Lemond had a lot of trouble with it, as most power - instead of the more fluent - cyclists have.

* it's still quit awesome though
-

Anyone else find it cute how Americans see this event?

[Drake Tungsten]

So what do you guys think are going to be the crucial stages this year? I'm thinking 13, 16 & 17. Tough mountain stages and, with Mayo already out, seemingly ideal places for Armstrong to bury lesser climbers like Ulrich.

[Drake Tungsten]

Well, the new rules bit Lance and the Posties in the ass today. They finished first, 1 min and 7 sec ahead of Hamilton's team. Hamilton only loses 20 seconds, though, because of the new rule. Stupid...

Oh well, Lance still has 36 seconds on his closest rival (Hamilton). It's better than nothing.

edit: 55 secs up on Ulrich, 1:45 on Heras. Not bad at all.

[Mercator]

Well, Mayo being out of the running might provide some exciting stages. He'll surely be going for a mountain stage victory now, whereas otherwise he might have been more tactical.

I guess I don't mind that team time trial rule now after all. It is kind of unfair, but it keeps them all closer together. That should make the race more interesting to watch (hopefully).

I agree with the stages you mention, though I would add stage 12 as well. Now I think of it, Mayo would be a contender for winning that stage. It's the first real mountain stage, so it's probably mostly going to be a stage where everyone looks at eachother to see how good the opposition is.

[Drake Tungsten]

I guess I don't mind that team time trial rule now after all. It is kind of unfair, but it keeps them all closer together. That should make the race more interesting to watch (hopefully).

I've kind of come around on it as well, after thinking about it. It does take away from the team aspect of the Tour, which is bad, but it definitely does keep the race closer and make it more interesting. On the whole, the latter is probably more important than the former.

I agree with the stages you mention, though I would add stage 12 as well.

Yeah, stage 12 could be important too, with that big climb at the finish. The only reason I didn't list it is that it is pretty flat and easy up until the climb at the end. I figure Armstrong and other top climbers would rather make their move in the later stages, when there are numerous tough climbs throughout the stage to weaken their competitors before the end.

[DanS]

USPS owned the road today. Impressive time trial.

[Drake Tungsten]

And people said they would be weak this year...

[Pekka]

The only good part in this sport is when they fall and get totally dominated by the asphalt, or when 49 first ones get disqualified due to doping

[Mercator]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Yeah, stage 12 could be important too, with that big climb at the finish. The only reason I didn't list it is that it is pretty flat and easy up until the climb at the end. I figure Armstrong and other top climbers would rather make their move in the later stages, when there are numerous tough climbs throughout the stage to weaken their competitors before the end.

Well, I do think it would mostly be in preparation of the days to come. But if Armstrong feels he's stronger than the others in the final climb he certainly wouldn't hesitate to make a jump and take a few more seconds.

Originally posted by DanS
USPS owned the road today. Impressive time trial.

You do have to keep in mind that pretty much all the other teams had some delays along the way due to crashes. But there's no doubt they would have dominated even without them (or if they'd had their share as well).

Another nice day today, by the way. And I didn't even realize it until a commentator mentioned it, but every day there's been a different rider in the yellow jersey now!
Let's see how long Voeckler can hold on to it.

[pchang]

9 minutes is big at this point. I bet he will keep the Yellow until the mountains. I doubt the Peloton will allow another break away.