Not so fast Mr. Martin...

[Ben Kenobi]

Canada's Ruling Liberals Fall in Polls, MP Quits
Tue Feb 17, 2:42 PM ET

By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Liberals suffered more aftershocks from a financial scandal on Tuesday when a poll showed their public support had sunk to a 12-year low and a veteran legislator quit the party, saying he had lost confidence in Prime Minister Paul Martin.

Ottawa has been in turmoil since a report last week showed C$100 million ($76 million) in funds designed to promote national unity in French-speaking Quebec had gone instead to advertising firms with close Liberal ties, prompting questions about who knew what and who should take the blame.

The Ipsos-Reid poll for the Globe and Mail newspaper and CTV Television showed support for Liberals fell to 35 percent, down from 39 percent just after the report was released last Tuesday and 48 percent in January.

The last time the Liberals recorded 35 percent public support was in January 1992, when they were in opposition.

Support for the opposition Conservatives rose to 27 percent from 24 percent last week and 19 percent last month. Backing for the left-leaning New Democrats fell to 17 percent from 18 percent last week, compared with 16 percent last month.

Martin, who took power last December, has so far declined to say whether he will put off an election, which aides had earlier tipped for May 10.

The new poll indicates that if the Liberals went for a May vote, they would be returned with a minority government.

Martin has called an inquiry into the scandal, which took place from 1997 to 2001 when he was finance minister under former prime minister and arch-rival Jean Chretien. He has promised to quit if the inquiry shows he was implicated.

The Liberals suffered another blow when legislator John Bryden said he had quit the party and was considering whether to join the Conservatives.

Bryden, 60, said he was not sure the public felt it could trust the Liberals any more and said Martin had badly mishandled the scandal by trying to blame Chretien.

"I have lost confidence in Mr. Martin because he has caused problems inside the Liberal Party," he told a news conference, saying morale in the party was low.

A senior aide to Martin said the prime minister had to balance the need for Canadians to learn more about the scandal with the need to seek a new mandate from the voters.

"If we get it right, the results will speak for themselves. If we get it wrong, the results will still speak for themselves," the aide told Reuters.

The poll showed that 65 percent of voters felt the election should not be held until the inquiry was complete.

"When you get down in the territory of 35 percent, you don't win majorities," Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker told the Globe and Mail.

"I don't think there is anybody now who would be seriously advising (Martin) to go to the polls on this basis, unless he just wants to completely roll the dice."

There are no fixed election dates in Canada and Martin can call a vote when the chances of victory look good. The last possible date for a vote is November 2005.

The Ipsos-Reid poll surveyed 1,055 Canadians from Wednesday to Sunday and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

.................................................. .....................................

That's an 8 point gap between the Martinite Liberals and a Conservative party without a leader.

Concievably, that gap could be as little as 5 points.

What could change between then and May?

[Ben Kenobi]

JIM BROWN

OTTAWA (CP) - Liberal MP John Bryden quit the party Tuesday, accusing Prime Minister Paul Martin of sowing cynicism, failing to deliver on promised reforms and mishandling the crisis over federal sponsorship spending.

Canadian Press Photo

"It's simply a question that I've lost confidence in Mr. Martin," the Hamilton-area MP told a news conference. "It's very, very important for a leader to set an example for everybody else . . . Unfortunately we now have a party, in my view, that is full of cynicism."

Bryden said he will sit for now as an Independent, but wants to talk to the Conservatives about running for them in the next election.

He was scathing in his criticism of Martin for trying to shift the blame to predecessor Jean Chretien for the sponsorship scandal that saw millions in public funds flow to Liberal-friendly advertising firms.

"I think he's handled it very badly," said Bryden. "He has ducked and tried to let the bricks fly over him and hit Mr. Chretien."

He also condemned Martin for the long-running leadership feud with Chretien that, he said, has robbed Liberals of their idealism and turned the party into nothing but an electoral machine.

"Since the year 2000, as Mr. Martin gradually took over the Liberal party, the Liberal party definitely changed. It is not the party it once was, and I'm sorry about that."

Martin was out of town, attending a family funeral, and had no comment.

Some of his cabinet ministers, however, were quick to deny Bryden's assertions - and to insist that he speaks only for himself.

"Each individual coming into politics has to assess whether he feels comfortable," said Jacques Saada, Liberal House leader in the Commons.

"If he changes his options, that's OK . . . . I respect that and I have no problem."

Human Resources Minister Joe Volpe, who doubles as political minister for Ontario, said he was "disappointed" by Bryden's decision but bears him no ill will.

Volpe also noted that three Conservatives - Scott Brison, John Herron and Keith Martin - have jumped in the opposite direction and want to run for the Liberals in the next election.

"They're all switching to us because they realize the potential . . . a new vision and a new direction," said Volpe.

Senator David Smith, who ran the last three federal election campaigns for Chretien, dismissed talk of a party split and insisted Liberals are overwhelmingly behind Martin.

"I've been as closely associated with Jean Chretien as anyone," said Smith. "But we went through a (leadership) process whereby over 90 per cent of the Liberals at that convention selected Paul Martin."

The Conservatives, clearly caught off guard, gave a mixed reception to Bryden's announcement that he hopes to find a home with them.

"Welcome John, we're glad to have you on board," said MP John Williams, who heads a Commons committee probing the sponsorship scandal.

But colleague Paul Forseth said Bryden must court grassroots Conservatives in his riding, where five others are already competing to carry the party banner in the next election.

"He'll have to win a nomination to sit in our caucus," said Forseth.

Bryden, a three-term MP, had faced a challenge for the Liberal nomination in his riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot from Russ Powers, a local municipal councillor.

Powers has denied that his candidacy was orchestrated by Martin organizers in an effort to dump Bryden, who did not support the prime minister's leadership bid.

But Bryden insisted Tuesday that "there is no doubt individuals like myself have been singled out" by the Martin forces.

"The local Liberal establishment certainly wanted me out, and probably at any cost."

He also dismissed Martin's claim to be the champion of backbench democracy, saying he is not impressed by the prime minister's plan to allow more free votes in the Commons.

Martin doesn't realize the degree of freedom that already existed under Chretien, Bryden contended.

"I never felt there was a democratic deficit. I never had any problem standing up and speaking out (under Chretien) and I was never punished for it."

Bryden has long been known as a maverick in Liberal circles.

Two years ago, he headed an ad-hoc committee of MPs that unsuccessfully urged the government to expand access-to-information law to cover more Crown corporations and agencies.

The issue has come to the fore again with the sponsorship scandal.

Critics say the dubious transactions would have come to light sooner if Crown corporations such as Via Rail and Canada Post were required to release information to the public under the access law.

Bryden has also criticized Transport Minister Tony Valeri, a Martin stalwart, for challenging former heritage minister Sheila Copps for the Liberal nomination in the riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.

He accused Valeri last month of trying to knock off "a colleague who is much more distinguished than he is."

Copps hinted at one point that she might jump to the NDP if she lost the Liberal nomination, but those close to her say she has since turned her full attention to defeating Valeri.

"This is not going to encourage her to leave," one source said following Bryden's defection.

"There has been so much blood, sweat and tears put into the Hamilton nomination battle."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1845&ncid=737&e=1&u=/cpress/20040217/ca_pr_on_na/liberal_quits

[Fake Boris]

BTW, in Quebec, the Bloc is up to 47%, which mean they could assrape the liberals if there was an election today.

[Shi Huangdi]

Nice to see Canada may be returning to multi-party politics.

[Ben Kenobi]

Interesting times my friend... Interesting times.

[Asher]

Belinda.

[Ben Kenobi]

"These are not the droids you are looking for."

Gotta win her own parties nomination first.

THE MARTIN RESPONSE:

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin on Wednesday told his ruling Liberal Party to focus on running the country rather than on a scandal that has shaken the government, members of parliament said.

Legislators emerging from a weekly meeting of the Liberal parliamentary caucus said Martin had stressed the need to stick to the priorities set out two weeks ago in a policy speech to Parliament known as the Speech from the Throne.

"The message was pretty positive. The message is 'Listen, we had a Speech from the Throne, we had an issue, we're dealing with it... our job now is to govern this country'," government minister Denis Coderre told reporters.

Ottawa has been in shock since a report last week showed C$100 million ($75 million) in funds designed to promote national unity in French-speaking Quebec had gone to advertising firms with close ties to the Liberals.

Support for the Liberals has sunk to a 12-year low in opinion polls and on Tuesday a veteran legislator quit the party, saying he had lost confidence in Martin.

Martin -- who took over last December -- has tried to assure Canadians he will get to the bottom of the scandal.

He has called an inquiry into the affair, which took place from 1997 to 2001 when he was finance minister under former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and he has promised to quit if the inquiry shows he was implicated.

"We have put in place a comprehensive plan to give Canadians the answers they need and I (hope) Canadians will focus on that plan and have confidence in that plan," said Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan.

Martin has not said whether he will put off an election, which aides had earlier tipped for May 10. A poll released on Tuesday showed the Liberals at 35 percent of support, which suggests a May election would result in a minority government.

Later this week Martin plans to visit the western provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan to outline what he is doing to tackle the scandal.

Under fire from the opposition for overspending on an official trip to the Arctic last year, Ottawa also said it was scrapping a planned second trip to the region by Governor-General Adrienne Clarkson, the representative of Queen Elizabeth, Canada's head of state.

Opposition parties accused the government of profligate spending after it was revealed that Clarkson's first trip to the Arctic had cost C$5.3 million -- almost four times as much as had been initially estimated.

[Tingkai]

Polls usually swing a lot after a major announcement. What happens ove rthe long run is a different matter.

What could change? The conservatives will lose support after they pick a leader. Electing Harper means they'll lose support everywhere outside of Alberta. Stronach is a joke, pure and simple. The other guy, what's his name? Enough said.

The best case scenario is that the scandal continues to chip away at Liberal support, the new Conservative leader maintains the tory tradition of sticking their foot in the mouth, and the NDP charge up the middle to become the kingmaker in a minority government or even form a minority government.

[St Leo]

What could change between then and May?

Stronach could get not chosen as leader.

[Ben Kenobi]

The conservatives will lose support after they pick a leader.

We shall see.

If the Liberals fall any further in Quebec, they will be doomed to a minority government.

The Liberals have dropped 15% in BC, from 42% to 27%, so unless they turn these numbers around, they will have to fight to keep the seats they have.

I'm curious about Ontario. They need to keep Ontario, but they still need some seats, about 50 from outside Ontario in order to retain a government.

[Ben Kenobi]

That other guy is from Ontario. You should pay more attention to Tony Clement. Everyone is underestimating him to their peril.

[Ben Kenobi]

and the NDP charge up the middle to become the kingmaker in a minority government or even form a minority government.

With the Bloc winning 50-60 seats in Quebec?

Ain't gonna happen. They'll be sitting behind the Conservatives, Bloc and the Liberals. They might have 20 seats to offer others.

The Bloc will be the kingmakers, with 48% of support in Quebec. The better they do there, the more people in Ontario will be willing to vote for the Conservatives to make sure the seperatists do not get to be in the government.

So it's a lose-lose proposition for Mr. Martin.

[Sava]

I like the party that will legalize marijuana!

[FS*]

Through no act of it's own, in fact in spite of itself, the Conservative Party(in all it's convolutions) is in the best position it's seen since 1992, according to the polls.

What a shame the this party currently has no leader and has done little more in the last decade than fall apart.

So the polls say the liberals are in trouble. Would we be any less out on a limb with the other gang? One is corrupt... the other is inept.

[Asher]

I'd rather have an inept government that doesn't do much than have a corrupt government giving all of our money to whiney visor-wearing Conon-hating Frenchies.