Not so fast Mr. Martin...

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
At least the west stayed conservative. The blessed and pure Ontario folks went to the Grits.
Yes, only one group that backstabbed the PC. Yessirree.

A small section of the right wing vote in Ontario went to the Reformers. That helped kill the PC's chances of winning.

But of course, it's not your fault.

The Reform Party wanted to win power, and that meant kicking out the Progressive Conservatives, but noooo, the reformers never meant to hurt the PC.

And the Reformers wanted one right-wing party with a new name, but no, they didn't want to destroy the progressive conservatives.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Charlottetown Accords, Meech Lake.

Would have affected everyone, not just the west. IIRC, some people argued that it would have given the west more power.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Government contracts taken from the West, given to Central Canada.

One contract, the F-18 maintenance one that shifted work from Winnipeg to Quebec. Meanwhile, a Kelowna BC truck manufacturer got the contract to build new military vehicles.

You know as well as I do that Kelowna is not a centre for the auto industry, but the Conservatives handed the money over to the west.

What got produced in Kelowna were crap vehicles with brakes that are so noisy you can hear them a mile away. Not something you want in a military vehicle.

Did Ontario whine and moan, year after year, when we didn't get the contract? No.

The Conservatives screwed everybody, except the rich. That's what they always do.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The GST applied to everybody, remember, not just Central Canada. At least you got free trade. We sure did not get free trade for lumber.

Free trade????

It was conservative like you who wanted it. Not the NDP. Not the Liberals. Don't be blaming Easterners for this one.

It was the right-wingers talking about how free trade would be the greatest thing since sliced bread, no trade barriers for lumber, no trade barriers period. They were lying and they were wrong.

The free trade agreement made it easier for companies to shift production to the states. Profitable factories were closed in Ontario because they weren't making enough money. It took a good 10 years for Ontario to recover from the mess created by the Conservatives.

[Ben Kenobi]

So Free trade is the best you can do?

Maybe your manufacturers did not do so well, but what about the rest of the province?

But of course, it's not your fault.

I think it's a stretch to lay the blame for the destruction of the PC solely on the West.

And you missed my question on Stephen Harper. Why do people outside of the west have doubts on him as PM?

What's the beef here?

IIRC, some people argued that it would have given the west more power.

Not the majority. Defeated strongly out west.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

130 Liberals, 23 NDP, 93 Conservatives, 54 BQ

The coalition between Liberals and NDP would have 153 seats, out of 301. The Conservatives and BQ would have 147.

So with a swing of 3 seats, anywhere in Canada, you get a deadlock.

Not bad. I'm not sure about your Nova Scotia - New Brunswick numbers, and i would also bring the Bloc down to about 45 (50 at most). Jean Lapierre - Martin's new Quebec leftenant - is a populist, he's very well known, and the independence movement is in shamble. But overall it looks realistic.

Of course, the elections are not going to be held this spring unless there's a shift in popular opinion, so...

[Ben Kenobi]

Richelieu:

I got everything off of a really cool site.

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

Fiddle around with the numbers yourself.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Richelieu:

I got everything off of a really cool site.

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

Fiddle around with the numbers yourself.

Thanks for the link. Already having fun with this.

[Ben Kenobi]

23 52

With 48% of voters for the PQ and 40% of voters for the Libs.

12% of Lib support to the Bloq

20% of PC support to the Liberals

60% of PC support to the Bloq

20% of the PC support to the Conservatives.

[mrmitchell]

Nice to see that Canada has some good old issue-related politics

[Fake Boris]

BK-

Don't forget Martin is in deep manure. If he calls for an election this spring, he's toast. If he waits for fall, then the results of the police investigation will be known.

If Martin calls the election in spring, that's because he knows the police report will be ugly.

About the Bloc: you guys should take into account that the dissatisfaction towards the provincial liberals is drawing votes to the Bloc, and that this feeling might fade with time.

I don't expect them to get more than 50 seats, because real support alway turns out to be lower election day.
As Richelieu said, expect 42-46 seats. Which is not bad at all for them, given they are now at 35.

About possible coalitions: the Bloc is extremely left-leaning (just as much as NDP) AND separatist, so don't expect a coalition with the despised liberals (that is the separatist part).

A coalition with the Tories might be possible if they have a) the courage to offer something to Quebec, and b) don't go too much to the right. I think it is in their agenda to give more power to the provinces, so the Bloc could well buy into that.

[Gibsie]

Haha, I thought this was going to be about how British gypsy-killing tabloid hero Tony Martin had been arrested for stealing car number plates. Oh wells!

[Sava]

Who is the pot-legalizing party in Canada?

[St Leo]

Liberals, NDP, and maybe the Bloc. Also, Conservatives under Stronach but not Clement or Harper.

[Elok]

Originally posted by Gibsie
Haha, I thought this was going to be about how British gypsy-killing tabloid hero Tony Martin had been arrested for stealing car number plates. Oh wells!

Yes, Ben really should've included a disclaimer in his title:

(CANADIAN POLITICS...YOU PROBABLY DON'T CARE!)

[Ben Kenobi]

That would have to go under all Canadian politics threads.

OB:

The real question is in Ontario, and in the Maritimes. Will conservative support hold up in the maritimes? Can they close the gap in Ontario? Right now, I think they can reasonably expect to get 14-16 seats in Ontario, and with each percentage point increase, they will get more.

In fact, the better the NDP do, the better the Conservatives do as well, since lowered Liberal support helps the number 2 party, which are the Conservatives.

[Elok]

Er, that was what I was implying.

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by Sava
Who is the pot-legalizing party in Canada?

NDP and Bloc.

Liberals are only decriminalizing.