Not so fast Mr. Martin...

[FS*]

Strike the ballots...

[St Leo]

Originally posted by Asher
I'd rather have an inept government that doesn't do much than have a corrupt government giving all of our money to whiney visor-wearing Conon-hating Frenchies.

Bah. I don't think Conservatives would have any problems whatsoever surpassing Liberal corruption.

The former Progressive Conservative government here in Ontario robbed us of five billion while trying to buy the election with tax cuts and cutting greath swathes of destruction through our infrastructure. They have also completely raped Toronto in every way possible.

Yes, the provincial party isn't directly related to the federal one, but Harris-like dogma seem to be in vogue among both. I have less trust for Clement, Stronach, and Harper than I do in Martin and I have very little trust for Martin.

[Asher]

The provincial government in Alberta kicks ass.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
With the Bloc winning 50-60 seats in Quebec?

The BQ winning 50 seats????

You're dreaming. They'll be lucky to keep what they have.

Quebecers hated Chretien, but the Liberals still took 36 seats there. This time, the Liberals will probably take 45+ seats.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Ain't gonna happen. They'll be sitting behind the Conservatives, Bloc and the Liberals. They might have 20 seats to offer others.

Nope, the BQ are spent. The Conservatives are in disarray, as always. Harper is distrusted in the east. Stronach is a newbie who will stumble and make numerous gaffes. Clement lacks presence.

Meanwhile, Layton is a highly intelligent politicians with years of experience of being in the media spotlight. He'll be positioned as a dynamic,youthful, but experienced leader.

The NDP will make major gains in the Maritimes, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Layton will win back the NDP supporters in BC. Call it 30+ seats for the NDP.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The Bloc will be the kingmakers, with 48% of support in Quebec.

You must be on drugs. The Liberals would never form an alliance with the Bloc. They hate each other with a passion.

The Conservatives will think about forming an Alliance with the Bloc, but in the end, even they will realise that it would be political suicide.

That's why the NDP become the kingmaker. in a Liberal minority government.

If the conservatives win the most seats, but not enough to form a majority then they are screwed. They won't find a dance partner.

[Ben Kenobi]

Tried to compile a post from the numbers coming from IPSOS-REID and their full press release.

ONTARIO

GRIT / TORY / NDP

57 / 18 / 17 before

47 / 25 / 22 after

ATLANTIC CANADA:

43 / 37 / 17 before

42 / 33 / 19 after

QUEBEC

GRIT BQ

45 / 40 before

40 / 48 after

BC

GRIT TORY NDP

42 / 20 / 27 before

27 / 35 / 22 after

PRAIRIES

46 / 20 / 24 before

33 / 23 / 33 after

[Ben Kenobi]

The BQ winning 50 seats????

You're dreaming. They'll be lucky to keep what they have.

Not if they are leading by 8 points over the Liberals. I see 50 seats easy.

Even higher among the francophones.

Liberals still took 36 seats there. This time, the Liberals will probably take 45+ seats.

Again, 75 seats, I figure maybe 25 to the Liberals. That's if they don't fall further.

The Conservatives are in disarray, as always. Harper is distrusted in the east. Stronach is a newbie who will stumble and make numerous gaffes. Clement lacks presence.

Even in disarray, they draw 27%, which if I recall, is a higher number than they have had in the last election.

So, what will they be when they come together?

Lacks presence? That's a substantive point and reason to distrust Clement. Secondly, who does Ontario fear more? Liberal corruption, or Stephen Harper? No contest.

The NDP will make major gains in the Maritimes, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Layton will win back the NDP supporters in BC. Call it 30+ seats for the NDP.

Major gains? They are holding steady. The Bloq and Conservatives will gobble up the Liberal votes. Conservatives in Ontario, and the Bloq in Quebec. Even despite the scandal, they have dropped in BC.

30 seats! We should make a bet. I already have one going that the Conservatives will outpoll the NDP.

Can I have some of what you are smoking?

If the conservatives win the most seats, but not enough to form a majority then they are screwed. They won't find a dance partner.

If the Libs and NDP can't get enough to form a minority government what will happen then?

Like I said, we live in interesting times.

All the Bloq and Conservatives need are 150 seats. Give the Bloq 60 and the Conservatives 90 and you have it all together.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Not if they are leading by 8 points over the Liberals. I see 50 seats easy.
Even higher among the francophones.

Liberal/BQ support comes from different sections of the province so an increase for one side does not necessarily translate into province wide success.

More people voted BQ in the 2000 election compared to 1997, but the number of seats won by the BQ in 2000 actually declined from 1997.

2000 38 seats, 39.8% of the voters
1997 44 seats, 37.9% of voters.


And the Liberals in 2000 won a greater percentage of the votes in Quebec, but ended up with fewer seats than the BQ.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Even in disarray, they draw 27%, which if I recall, is a higher number than they have had in the last election.

So, what will they be when they come together?

They're supposedly together now.

The conservatives suffer from having inch-deep support.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Lacks presence? That's a substantive point and reason to distrust Clement.

Politics is more about image than substance. We can all sit around and talk about how it should be about the issues, but on election day, what sways the undecided is image. And they make or break elections.

Why do you think Trudeau won so many elections. It was because he looked like a leader, unlike Joe Who and Robert "fumbling" Stansfield. Same thing with Mulroney. He looked like a better leader than Turner.

This has always been the crucial flaw of the NDP. They spend too much time thinking about issues and not enough time working on selling the leader. With Layton they now have someone with a strong image.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Secondly, who does Ontario fear more? Liberal corruption, or Stephen Harper? No contest.

You're right. Harper is easily more a threat.

Seriously though, the conservatives would destroy Canada. It took them 20 years to unite. Imagine how long it would take for them to figure out how to run the country. And we all remember how the conservatives screwed Canada during the 80s.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
30 seats! We should make a bet. I already have one going that the Conservatives will outpoll the NDP.

Of course the Conservatives will get more seats. The sheep in Alberta always vote conservative. You could run a dog as a Conservative candidate in Alta and the dog would win. So that gives the Conservatives about 25 seats off the bat.

If you want to make it interesting, let's do NDP seats vs Conservatives, not including Alta.

Or who will have more power after the election. I bet the NDP will be the kingmaker in a minority government. I guess you're betting on a Conservative-BQ alliance.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
If the Libs and NDP can't get enough to form a minority government what will happen then?

It would be up to the Governor-General. Either call an election or let the party with the most seats form a government and operate on a day-by-day basis.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by St Leo

Originally posted by Asher
I'd rather have an inept government that doesn't do much than have a corrupt government giving all of our money to whiney visor-wearing Conon-hating Frenchies.

Bah. I don't think Conservatives would have any problems whatsoever surpassing Liberal corruption.

The former Progressive Conservative government here in Ontario robbed us of five billion while trying to buy the election with tax cuts and cutting greath swathes of destruction through our infrastructure. They have also completely raped Toronto in every way possible.

Yes, the provincial party isn't directly related to the federal one, but Harris-like dogma seem to be in vogue among both. I have less trust for Clement, Stronach, and Harper than I do in Martin and I have very little trust for Martin.

Turnover is always the best policy when you are talking about a choice between corrupt parties. It takes time to dismantle the corruption infrastructure of the former ruling party, and more time to set up your own.

[Ben Kenobi]

Tingkai:

More people voted BQ in the 2000 election compared to 1997, but the number of seats won by the BQ in 2000 actually declined from 1997.

2000 38 seats, 39.8% of the voters
1997 44 seats, 37.9% of voters.


And the Liberals in 2000 won a greater percentage of the votes in Quebec, but ended up with fewer seats than the BQ.

True. Hence my comments about the francophones. I don't have access to the breakdown, nor would I trust those numbers given the error margins.

Secondly, look at the percentages. Given the peculiarities of our first past the post system, the percentages matter. If the BQ get 48% of the entire vote in Quebec, it matters quite a bit more than getting 40%. There is less margin for an uneven distribution of voters.

Down in the 30%, small changes produce drastic changes in the number of seats won.

They're supposedly together now.

The conservatives suffer from having inch-deep support.

Where? Quebec? The Maritimes? Ontario?

They have just as much support in Ontario as they have across the country. They are above average in the Maritimes.

They are either together or they are not. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Why do you think Trudeau won so many elections. It was because he looked like a leader, unlike Joe Who and Robert "fumbling" Stansfield. Same thing with Mulroney. He looked like a better leader than Turner.

This has always been the crucial flaw of the NDP. They spend too much time thinking about issues and not enough time working on selling the leader. With Layton they now have someone with a strong image

Again, gaging Harper, why does he get a knock for his image? I think he will make a fine PM, better than the Mangler.

I don't think it matters so much, the image of the PM, given Mr. Chretien for the last 10 years. Or perhaps, what matters is not so much the truth, but the image crafted. The problem with crafting an image, and you see this in the states, is that really your support is only skin deep.

Seriously though, the conservatives would destroy Canada. It took them 20 years to unite. Imagine how long it would take for them to figure out how to run the country. And we all remember how the conservatives screwed Canada during the 80s.

I think that if the West can forgive the conservatives, so can the East. I think it funny that they list the litany of Conservative sins, now that they are a threat, when the East has been the biggest beneficiary of the Tory policies.

Secondly, it has only been 12 years. So be fair. It took them so long, because of curmudgeons like Joe Who, who has since refused to stand with his former brethren. The time of Clark has ended, and the new party is still trying to get on its feet.

If you want to make it interesting, let's do NDP seats vs Conservatives, not including Alta.

Or who will have more power after the election. I bet the NDP will be the kingmaker in a minority government. I guess you're betting on a Conservative-BQ alliance.

Sure. Been trying to work that out myself for the past few hours. Hell of a speculation.

[Ben Kenobi]

Here's what I figure.

Wipeout in Alberta for the Conservatives - 26 seats.

BC is trickier, since they have a combination of liberal, conservatives and NDP.

Currently you have:

Alliance / Liberal / NDP

27 / 5 / 2

I figure, this will go down to 30 3 1

So you have 3 liberal seats, and 1 NDP seat.

So that would be 1 NDP and 56 Conservatives, 3 Liberals

Saskatchewan's a mess.

Figure that I depress the Consevative vote by 50%.

All the former PCs are split evenly between Liberals and NDP.

6. Prince Albert [SK] 26.8% 26.6% 1.0% 22.8%



What a mess! Winning a seat with 26.8% of the vote.

Being very generous to the NDP, that gives them:

7 seats, 4 for the Conservative party, and 3 for the Liberals.

So now you have 8 NDP 6 Liberals and 60 conservatives

Manitoba:

Splitting all the PC between the Liberals and NDP, no depression of the Conservative party, you have:

4 Conservative seats, 6 Liberal seats and 4 NDPs

so you get 12 NDP 12 Liberals and 64 Conservatives

Ontario:

Giving the NDP 25% of the PC vote, and the Conservatives, 75%, you get:

86 16 1 with 86 Liberals, 16 Conservatives, and 1 NDP

So you have 13 NDP, 98 Liberals and 80 Conservatives

Quebec:

Giving the BQ a boost, from the Liberals of 15% we get:

21 LIberals, and 54 Bloc seats

so we now have:

13 NDP 119 Liberals 54 Bloc and 80 Conservatives.

Forecasting PEI:

You get with 75% of the PC vote going to the Conservatives, and 25% of the Liberals to the NDP, alongside 25% of the PCs, you get:

2 Lib, 1 Conservative, 1 NDP

Nova Scotia:

Same combinations:

1 Liberal, 5 NDP and 5 Conservatives

So now we have:

19 NDP 122 LIB 86 CON 54 BQ

New Brunswick, same combinations:

6 conservative seats, 3 liberals, 1 NDP

NFLD

4 Liberals, 1 NDP 1 Conservative

So now you have 93 Conservative, 54 BQ, 129 LIberals and 21 NDP

Northern Territories, 2 NDPs and 1 Liberal.

So in total:

130 Liberals, 23 NDP, 93 Conservatives, 54 BQ

The coalition between Liberals and NDP would have 153 seats, out of 301. The Conservatives and BQ would have 147.

So with a swing of 3 seats, anywhere in Canada, you get a deadlock.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Secondly, look at the percentages. Given the peculiarities of our first past the post system, the percentages matter. If the BQ get 48% of the entire vote in Quebec, it matters quite a bit more than getting 40%. There is less margin for an uneven distribution of voters.

Depends on who was called during the poll.

Yes, the first past the post system works oddly in Quebec. In the last election, the Libs took 44% of the votes (39.8% for the BQ), but the Libs only got 36 seats.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Where? Quebec? The Maritimes? Ontario?

They have just as much support in Ontario as they have across the country. They are above average in the Maritimes.

They are either together or they are not. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

You're talking apples and oranges.

Voter support for the conservatives tends to be thin outside of Alberta.

As for the Conservative Party, rumour has it that it is united.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Again, gaging Harper, why does he get a knock for his image? I think he will make a fine PM, better than the Mangler.

Of course you do. You're a conservative. The rest of the country has doubts.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I don't think it matters so much, the image of the PM, given Mr. Chretien for the last 10 years.

Chretien has a perfect image for PM, at least for Canadians. They like his self-mocking style. They admire his rags to riches story. His ailment makes him look human. Canadians are distrustful of people who look too sculpted.

More than that, he was low-key, which is what people wanted after the turmoil of the Mulroney years.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Or perhaps, what matters is not so much the truth, but the image crafted.

What's the truth? Is Bush a war president or a president bent on war. Is Kerry a war hero, or a peacenik traitor?

Whether we like it or not, politics is about style. George Bush was seen as a party animal who didn't know much, but he became the president. Gore was widely acknowledge as being well-versed on policy issues, but he lacked style.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I think that if the West can forgive the conservatives, so can the East. I think it funny that they list the litany of Conservative sins, now that they are a threat, when the East has been the biggest beneficiary of the Tory policies.

What a pile of crap. The Conservatives bent over backwards for the west. Name one thing that the Conservatives did to harm the west. Nothing. And the east got nothing from the Conservatives other than the GST.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Secondly, it has only been 12 years. So be fair. It took them so long, because of curmudgeons like Joe Who, who has since refused to stand with his former brethren.

No, Manning and the Reform boys started the revolt against the Progressive Conservatives back in the early 80s. So that's 20 years ago.

The reason it took so long was because the PC formed two consecutive majority governments. Instead of working to keep the winning streak going the Reformers, bless their hearts, stabbed the PCs in the back. That helped to end the Tory dynasty (much to everyone's joy).

Manning and the boys then thought they could do it alone. It took them another 10 years to figure out that Canadians would not elect a Reform/CCRAP/Canadian Alliance government (we're smart enough to know that sh1t by any other name still stinks).

Joe Clark stayed loyal to his beliefs and his party. They turned their backs on the PC party, not him.

[Ben Kenobi]

Second prediction:

Using the formula for the Maritimes,

25% of Liberal vote to NDP

25% of PC vote to NDP

75% of PC vote to Conservatives

Done for the entire country, not on a province by province basis:

92 52 27 129

92 Liberal seats, 27 NDP seats, 52 Bloq seats and 129 Conservative seats.

Pure Chaos.

25% of Liberal vote to NDP

50% of PC vote to NDP

50% of PC vote to Conservatives

you get:

107 52 24 0 117

So 107 Liberal seats, 117 Conservative seats, 52 Bloc seats and 24 NDP seats.

One more try:

Giving 15% of the Liberal vote to the NDP, and splitting the PC vote between NDP and Conservatives:

126 47 30 97

So 97 Conservatives, 126 Liberals 47 Bloq and 30 NDP

[Ben Kenobi]

Manning and the Reform boys started the revolt against the Progressive Conservatives back in the early 80s

Early 80's? Last I checked we still had PET then.

[Ben Kenobi]

Instead of working to keep the winning streak going the Reformers, bless their hearts, stabbed the PCs in the back. That helped to end the Tory dynasty (much to everyone's joy).

At least the west stayed conservative. The blessed and pure Ontario folks went to the Grits.

Yes, only one group that backstabbed the PC. Yessirree.

The rest of the country has doubts.

Why?

The Conservatives bent over backwards for the west. Name one thing that the Conservatives did to harm the west.

Charlottetown Accords, Meech Lake.

Government contracts taken from the West, given to Central Canada.

The GST applied to everybody, remember, not just Central Canada. At least you got free trade. We sure did not get free trade for lumber.

What did the Conservatives ever do to hurt central Canada? Name one.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Early 80's? Last I checked we still had PET then.

Mulroney wins in 84. The Reformers start up around that time and keep on going hellbent on destroying the PCs from day one of the Mulroney years.