Is China Preparing for War?

[Sava]

Actually Sloww is right. We shouldn't be wasting resources and time in Iraq... we should be examining REAL threats to America.

[SlowwHand]

Back at you, ask the people here.

[Alinestra Covelia]

This is entertaining on so many different levels.

There will not be war.

China has nothing to gain from it.

Taiwan has nothing to gain from it.

America has nothing to gain from it.

Whereas the *threat* of war and talking tough certainly gives the talker the illusion of A) bravado, B) capability, and C) reliability in the face of a phantom menace.

It's clear what the obvious course of reunification should be. The two Koreas and the two Chinas could be reunited with minimal friction by disarming their collective weapons and aiming them at Japan instead.

[Japher]

Ah, do I get to do another "If Sloww Ruled The Country" Thread?! Yaaay!!!

[Ben Kenobi]

China has nothing to gain from it.
Taiwan has nothing to gain from it.
America has nothing to gain from it.

War is not always done for the best interests of one state, but when one state feels these interests are threatened.

One case in point, the first world war. Did France really want war, or Germany, or Russia, or Britain, or Italy, or the Austro-Hungarian empire? No. Yet all ended up fighting each other in the end. The British and Germans, for all their naval bluster never truly sparred, because to lose was worse than to win. As it was, the British were able to blockade the Germans, and eventually force a surrender on those terms.

No one won, everyone lost. Yet war still happened.

I agree fully with slowwhand. Do not care about Iraq, or even N. Korea. Care about China.

[Drake Tungsten]

This is entertaining on so many different levels.

There will not be war.

China has nothing to gain from it.

Taiwan has nothing to gain from it.

America has nothing to gain from it.

Sometimes wars are fought even though no one stood to gain from them. Look at WWI, for example. A rising power challenging a hegemon, when combined with ultra-nationalism and pronouncements that are hard to back out of, is a dangerous situation no matter how you look at it. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but things don't look so rosy in East Asia from my vantage point.

edit: You know, I probably should've read the rest of the posts before writing my reply. Sorry for repeating you, Ben.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well I guess it is true..

Great minds think alike.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Sikander
Did you think that Bush was kidding when we had the standoff over your pilot crashing into our spy plane? Or how about Clinton when he deployed a carrier group after China had its tantrum over real democracy in Taiwan?

Oh, and what happened there?

Originally posted by Sikander
You are sadly mistaken if you don't think the U.S. will fight to protect Taiwan

I don't see you are providing any evidence or argument to back up your assertion.

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by Flubber
Some things that most people seem to agree on

1. Barring complete suprise ( unlikely given the sea transports required), US naval and airpower should be sufficient to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan-- Heck Taiwanese forces might be sufficient unless China missile barrages them to heck and back first

Its not just a MIGHT here at the moment. There is a general aknowledgement that China has at most the sealift capability to transport at most 3 divisions to Taiwan as part of an initial invasion force.

An amphibious invasion would also be very risky, given the PLA's current lack of amphibious lift capability and the rate at which it seems to be acquiring such. Suggestions that troops can be landed from fishing junks on deserted beaches of Taiwan are fanciful. On this densely populated island with its large fishing fleet, deserted beaches are extremely scarce. And the number of fishing junks that would be required to effect such a landing could not help but attract attention.

Neither weather nor geography lends itself to the success of such an invasion. The PLA's 1996 exercises in the Strait were called off before completion because of bad weather. Unfortunately for an invading naval force, rough seas and storm conditions are very typical in the Strait. As for geography, Taiwan's west coast is surrounded by large, shallow mud flats that would make it nearly impossible for amphibious ships to get close enough to land troops and their equipment. A knowledgeable American naval officer predicted that this kind of operation would amount to a "million man swim," with the swimmers burdened by their weapons, radios, and other cumbersome impedimenta. An amphibious assault on Taiwan's east coast would involve transporting men and equipment to the side of the island further from the mainland, thus lengthening supply lines and increasing the opposing side's chances for detecting the force. Assuming that they arrived successfully and undetected, the invaders would find mountains and cliffs bordering the ocean, with some narrow strips of land giving limited access. The military advantage would be to the defenders.

http://taiwansecurity.org/IS/Dreyer-The-PLA-and-the-Taiwan-Strait.htm

The big problem for China here is that Taiwan has its own significantly sized army. You're looking at a 220,000 man standing army and a 1,500,000 man reserve force. Not only are the initial invading Chinese divisions going to be heavily outnumbered, but you're realisticly looking at fewer men coming in as reinforcements as the war continues. Taiwan's Airforce and Navy, both armed with antishipping weaponry such as the the Hsiung Feng II antishipping missile, are going to take a substancial toll on the Chinese transports. This is going to quickly drasticly reduce China's ability to reinforce its invasion force, which is going to remain rather small while Taiwan's 1,500,000 men reserves are brought to bear in order to force the invading Chinese divisions into submission.

While China has alot of medium range missiles, these missiles are expensive to make, and China does not have an unlimited supply of them. While China could cause some damage with these missiles, it would not be enough to seriously impair the military capabilites of an army the size of Taiwan's.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
War is not always done for the best interests of one state, but when one state feels these interests are threatened.

Only when Taiwan declares indepdence will the PRC act.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Mordoch
The big problem for China here is that Taiwan has its own significantly sized army. You're looking at a 220,000 man standing army and a 1,500,000 man reserve force.

Why would the PLA need to fight the entire Taiwanese army? Another question is, how would Taiwan sustain this war effort?

Originally posted by Mordoch
Taiwan's Airforce and Navy, both armed with antishipping weaponry such as the the Hsiung Feng II antishipping missile, are going to take a substancial toll on the Chinese transports.

You are assuming that they can still be launched.

Originally posted by Mordoch
While China could cause some damage with these missiles, it would not be enough to seriously impair the military capabilites of an army the size of Taiwan's.

Suppose their command and control systems are out. How would they fight? Any good?

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


Why would the PLA need to fight the entire Taiwanese army? Another question is, how would Taiwan sustain this war effort?

Why couldn't they? They need only to defend a small island.

You are assuming that they can still be launched.

Assuming that they can't.

Suppose their command and control systems are out. How would they fight? Any good?

I guess they'll fight as well as the Chinese then.

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Why would the PLA need to fight the entire Taiwanese army? Another question is, how would Taiwan sustain this war effort?

Why would you think they wouldn't need to do so in order to sucessfully pull off an invasion and conquer Taiwan? A particular problem for China is that there are a small number of viable landing beaches on Taiwan, so the army can be in place to greet them. Taiwan has a population of over 25,500,000 people, and a fair amount of reserve supplies, so a war effort should be sustainable for awhile, and I see the invasion force being completely defeated relatively quickly

You are assuming that they can still be launched.

That doesn't seem to be too much of an assumption all things considered. Much of the Taiwanese Airforce is located at an airbase that is actually inside a mountain. Not exactly an easy target for non-nuclear missile strikes. The approximately 150 F-16 fighter armed with AMRAAM missiles in particular, should allow Taiwan's airforce to achieve localized air superiority and sucessfully escort other modern aircraft to their targets early in the war.

China's naval forces are in general still pretty limited in their capabilities. Taiwan's Navy currently includes approximately 7 destroyers, 21 frigates, 2 relatively modern submarines, and 62 patrol craft all capable of firing anti-shipping missiles. Some antishipping missiles are also based on island defense instalations. Since Taiwan's ships are moving targets at sea, and not that easy to locate for China in the first place, medium ranged missile attacks won't be effective. The larger ships all have anti-air defenses, while the patrol boats will be fairly hard for Chinese aircraft to locate, and actually will be fairly difficult targets to hit. Given the Chinese airforce will not have undisputed aerial superiority during this time, its going to be quite difficult and take awhile for the Chinese Navy to sucessfully deal with.

Suppose their command and control systems are out. How would they fight? Any good?

I'm pretty sure that their command and control systems are some of the locations most likely to be defended by Patriot Missile Batteries, and the newer versions are fairly effective in dealing with these type of missiles. I'd expect active army units to already be deployed at potential invasion beach sites once signs of a Chinese invasion become evident. While I need to do more research to give you a better answer, as the defenders with internal lines of communication, I think that Taiwan should be able to still fight effectively in realistic scenarios involving command and control being hit.

[Dinner]

I see a very real likely hood the US would come to Taiwan's add if China attacked. The reason is such a war would play to all of the US's strengths (navy and Air Force) and almost entirely negate China's strengths (namely manpower).

The Chinese would have to get from China to Taiwan in force but to do that they must go by either sea or air both of which are weak points for them.

[Main_Brain]

I would rather not underestimate the Chinese Submarine Programs .