What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies?

[Spiffor]

I think there will be massive pressure from the US, and more importantly from enriched exilees for Cuba to embrace reforms and capitalism. The Cubans may be lured by the promises of capitalism just like Eastern Europe was. Or maybe not.

Whatever happens, I think the Cuban Communist Party will be overwhelmed by US-originating pressure, and only the cuban people will decide if they embrace the capitalist tide or not. If not, I agree with GePap: you can expect a range of political and economic reforms for the weakened CCP too keep power and to remain legitimate.

[DanS]

52nd state.

for all the glitz of Havana Cuba was not rich, not even by Latin American standards

Well, now Cuba's not even rich by Haitian standards.

[KrazyHorse]

Yes it is.

[DanS]

Eh? Neither materially nor spiritually.

They are rich by North Korean standards, though.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DanS
Eh? Neither materially nor spiritually.

I suggest you read the vitals on Haiti again, Dan.

What was their average life expectancy? mid-30s or something?

I've almost certainly spent more time talking to Haitians than you have, given Quebec's affinity for accepting them as immigrants...

[Japher]

When Castro dies, MLB will never be the same...

We will have a market flooding of classical American Autos...

The world will be in utter shock, as we all believed Castro was immortal...

[DanS]

I suggest you read the vitals on Haiti again, Dan.

I have read the vitals. Look at the economic statistics for a reality check on your communist utopia.

The only reason Cubans aren't eating grass is because Russia hasn't asked Cuba to pay on its debt yet.

[KrazyHorse]

Check out the UN HDI. Places Cuba between Brazil and Argentina. Certainly well above Haiti...

[DanS]

And it's all based on Russian charity, which is likely to reverse itself. Cuba owes something on the order of $20 billion, and its economic base is only slightly better than Haiti's.

[Jon Miller]

the debt thing is almost meaningless

everynation worth it's name owes much more than it brings in

including a certain nation we are both members of

Jon Miller

[Az]

You forgot. they fake all their statistics, coz they're commies!

Really, when I lived in the USSR, I lived in a cave, and we all ate dry potatoes from siberia. Luckily we still had those boots the Americans have sent us on land lease, coz otherwise, we'd be like totally naked!

Thank you America, for explaining how all my life was a lie! I took the red pill! not the "red" pill, but the red pill!

[DanS]

everynation worth it's name owes much more than it brings in

Cuba owes about 3x its annual economic output (the $20 billion is just to Russia). That's got to be one of the highest debt burdens in the world, and much, much more than the certain country in which we are living.

Thank you America, for explaining how all my life was a lie!

Hey, maybe Glasnost would have worked, if you hadn't been bleeding yourselves dry by exporting the revolution. To Cuba alone, it was $5 billion per annum or so--at least a quarter of Cuba's economy was a direct Russian subsidy.

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


The biggest market in the world is sitting 90 miles from them and they're barred access. The next nearest first world market is Canada.

No. Not a major competitive disadvantage at all...

what does Cuba export anyway? cigars? They are only popular in the US because they are illegal, once a ban is lifted, it wouldnt take long for them to lose their prestige.

seriously, they arent disadvantaged competetively because they have no major industry or commerce to export, to speak of, anyway. and having trade with the US, tho it would definately be helpful, would not magically transform it into a non****hole. Their system is the main thing that is wrong, not the US ban (tho this is definately not helpful, I know this. It is a handicap, dont get me wrong on that).

If they could embrace capitalism, without the corruption of other latin american countries, Cuba would be swimming in prosperity. I am very excited actually, because, as Ive always said, Cuba has soooo much potential, especially in the tourist/vacation/resort industry.

[KrazyHorse]

Sugar.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by DanS
Well, now Cuba's not even rich by Haitian standards.

Haiti is the poorest country in the Western hemisphere and is vying with Bangledesh as poorest country in the world.