What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies?

[SpencerH]

Will a new 'strong man' take over? Will Cuba become a democracy? If so how long after Castro's death?

I think that we in the west have assumed that the Cuban regime will fall rather quickly after Castro kicks the bucket. But is that necessarily so? Clearly the economic situation in Cuba is a disaster but are the people so unhappy that they're willing to take to the streets to force the change? I wonder!

[Solly]

"Clearly the economic situation in Cuba is a disaster"

What?! It's a communist paradise!

[DanielXY]

well cuba is not exactly an economic disaster ... when you compare it to most of South America they do fairly well

[SpencerH]

Red Herring anyone?

[Ari Rahikkala]

Who says that Castro is going to die?

[TCO]

I can't believe that I get to be the first. The answer is:

and and and

[SpencerH]

But how do you know that?

[chequita guevara]

It depends on whether or not Raul dies before him. Raul is "heir apparent," but he's getting pretty old himself.

One of three things is going to happen when the Castros are gone.

1) Things will continue as they are. Cuba's pretty stable, and most of the people who live there, while reaslizing things could be better, know things could be much, much worse. They only have to look at the rest of Latin America to realize how much better off theyr are.

2) Things will get worse. The Party will clamp down on any suspected political dissidence because they feel they are in more danger than every before.

3) Things will get much worse. The Party will fall, capitalism will return, and Cuba will become another Jamaica, only poorer.

[Lonestar]

The Cuban Exiles will return. Cuba will enter into a much closer relationship with the United States.

[Sandman]

Cuban geneticists will clone a new Castro.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Lonestar
The Cuban Exiles will return. Cuba will enter into a much closer relationship with the United States.

Why do you think they will return?

Why would they want to leave the good life they have in the US for an extremely dubious one in post-Castro Cuba?

Why do you think the Cubans would allow them to return?

[Lonestar]

(1) I have a coworker who's family was a prominent one before the revolution. They have an announced intentioned to return as soon as Castro and Raul are dead. (This follows the trend of Afghan and Iraqi Exiles returning to help their countries)

(2) Pride in their country. (and a return to running things)

(3) Why do you think they wouldn't?

[KrazyHorse]

The question is moot. Castro is immortal.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Lonestar
(3) Why do you think they wouldn't?

Because most Cubans actually support the revolution and are socialists?

[Lonestar]

If that were so, then why do so many try to leave the country every year? Didn't they try to hijack a ferry awhile back for chrissakes?