What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies?

[TCO]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Tell that to latin america.

Tell that to the US.

[TCO]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


It makes some people rich. It makes a lot of people poor. All the Cubans have to do is look at Eastern Europe to see what will happen to them if they embrace the Bautistas and terrorists.

And the Cuban part of Miami ain't all that rich (though better off than Little Haiti).

They are richer in Miami than in Cuba. capitalism works. Commie. I'll have the steak and eggs by the way. And lets stay to watch the music later.

[TheBirdMan]

Guess the cuban mafi...... ehhhh, sorry - exiles of course, exiles - will take over what their grandpa's left years ago.

Second: Claim Florida back as a part of Cuba......... (just another guess, afterall you read much about the former Cubans/Spanish being a major part of the population in many southern states of the US, so why not . Florida could be a fine place to start a campain ).

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by Lonestar
The Cuban Exiles will return.

Why would they want to return? Will they still be on welfare while in Cuba?

[monkspider]

Originally posted by TCO


They are richer in Miami than in Cuba. capitalism works. Commie. I'll have the steak and eggs by the way. And lets stay to watch the music later.

I'll just say this, there's a big difference between something working, and surviving.

As for Cuba, it's future is uncertain, but I would think it is most likely that Castro's reforms will continue under new leadership.

[JCG]

Hopefully sometime in the future a new leadership can find a middle road, not completely embracing capitalism but at least making enough reforms towards a greater degree of democracy (as in, not having the same leader(s) in charge for 40+ years).

That could make it easier for another administration in the US to finally stop the embargo (something long overdue, admittedly).

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
3) Things will get much worse. The Party will fall, capitalism will return, and Cuba will become another Jamaica, only poorer.

I think this is the most realistic scenario. Well, Cubans are more educated than Jamaicans, but this will make no difference. On the contrary, if the country is predestined for certain fate (like e.g. being the bordel of America), excessive education is a liability, not an asset.

Also, Cuba is famous for its excellent medical care, but this will disappear in a matter of years after the regime change. Hell, I am too pessimistic about Cuba's future. And, as a Russkie, I certainly feel guilt that we had to abandon our friend like that.

[:) Smiley]

When, er, I mean if, Castro dies and the country goes to hell, expect an armada of seagoing pickup trucks storming Miami Beach.

[GePap]

My predictions: when Castro dies, the party will have to begin major economic reforms ala China or Vietnam, perhaps also democratic reforms. Many Cuban exiles will want to return, but mostly the older ones, and they are not likely to be fuly welcomed, since many of them would go in expecting to get lands back that are under new owners now.

I don;t think there will be much violence after he is dead, though expect a great amount of genuine grief in Cuba, as much as some people here will be jumping up for joy: I seriously doubt thet exiles will get very far in trying to banish Castro from Cuban history or demonizing him: They will succeed in undoing the current marxist state, since it can not continue in its current economic state.

And Cuba will be mcuh richer than Jamaica or DR or such.

[JCG]

Of course, since Castro did a lot of good for the Cuban people, it'll be kind of hard to change that completely...problem is, he & his court have stayed in power long after their time was up, after their job was done....but yeah, GePap's right. Cuba probably won't end up like Jamaica or any other such country.

[OliverFA]

Chavez will move from Venezuela to Cuba, take his place and everything else will be the same

[SpencerH]

OK, since the opinions I seek havent surfaced, lets change the question slightly in light of GePaps post. Was Castro et al benficial for Cuba?

I would say that they were despite the communist claptrap that went along with it. They brought land reform etc, and overthrew the typical 'banana republic' mentality. With the right leadership after Castros demise, Cuba could very easily be the jewel of the Caribbean.

[GePap]

On the scales opf history, he is a plus. No, he hasn't been the most deadly dictator in even the Caribean, or any other such nonsense.

his accomplishments were setting up the foundations for a highly educated populace with (for a third world country) advanced medicines and biological sciences. He also did make Cuba fully "independent", in that it gave Cuba a direction of its own separate form that of the US.
The greatest fault was basically outlasting the Soviets...the last 13 years have been a waste, sicne the Revolution had doen all the good it has by then, and nothing of note has been achived in the last 13 years.

He will be seen certainly as the most important Cuban leader ever, for good or bad.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

The island will sink

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by TCO


MAybe Cuba isn't either. Especially after the people are free to say their minds...

Cuba's not quite Iraq. You can get in **** for some stuff that's rightly considered free speech here, but if you want to tell an international TV crew that Castro needs to step down then you're free to do it. I've seen innumerable interviews with "Cubans on the street" where they say just that. And innumerable others where they say the opposite.

Go there for yourself. Oh, wait, you're not allowed.