What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies?

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


Actually, I don't think we import sugar at all. I've never seen any sugar in stores from any where but Florida and Hawaii. The only thing close is Canadian maple syrup, and even that's rare.

I'm not sure having access to the American market would help . . . except that they could market their sugar as organic. Cuba's a massive producer of organic crops (since they can't afford petro based fertilizers and pesticides). Cuba might make organics affordable in the US (which would probably kill organic producers here).

i didnt think cane sugar could be grown on a large scale in the US... i thought it required a tropical or subtropical climate or somethn like that (i could imagine florida growing it commercially, but not much more than that).

I dont think the organic sugar market is that big. By anymeans, at least in my arguement with krazyhorse, it isnt a multibillion dollar industry that could turn Cuba around

[DanS]

Across the ocean is very important. Otherwise explain why we do 100 times more trade with you than with Europe, which is of comparable economic size.

Trick question? Free trade.

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
If Canada couldn't export to the US we'd be ****ed too. It's nice to suggest that they export to other countries, but the transportation issues do have a great effect, you know.

Otherwise we'd be exporting as much to WE as we do to the US. Which we don't by a factor of 100.

This is COMPLETELY differnt. Canada is a functional country that has stuff to freaking export. They dont rely on the 'gold' that is sugar They export a huge range of manufacured and agricultural goods to the US that cuba could not.

[KrazyHorse]

Was true before NAFTA, or any of that ****.

Take auto industry. Can you imagine us doing the same type of trade with Europe? Where one factory here produces some parts, gets sent to a US factory to join with other parts etc?

The transit time and the cost are both major factors. Margins are not big enough that you can laugh off a 5% increase in cost due to extra transportation cost.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by DanS
But the US is 1/4 of the global economy, and is right next door. Europe is across the ocean. Latin America doesn't have any money.

Yeh, this sob story is BS. "Across the ocean" is not that expensive nowadays.

Grain from New Zeland costs several times as much as American grain, but that's where Cuba must get it's grain, since not merely the US, but most of Latin America (at the US's behest), boycotts Cuba.

Three quarters of Cuba's trade came through Jacksonville, which is a very short hop from Havana (the things you learn wathing city council meetings).

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kramerman



This is COMPLETELY differnt. Canada is a functional country that has stuff to freaking export. They dont rely on the 'gold' that is sugar They export a huge range of manufacured and agricultural goods to the US that cuba could not.

Good God.

Reread it. Why do we export to you in such bulk and not to Europe? The answer is the Atlantic. Period.

It makes a huge difference in cost and time to delivery. Something like 30% of our economy is back and forth with US. With everybody else the loss in trade would be manageable.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Kramerman
This is COMPLETELY differnt. Canada is a functional country that has stuff to freaking export. They dont rely on the 'gold' that is sugar. They export a huge range of manufacured and agricultural goods to the US that cuba could not.

Cuba was never a developed country, but lke most of the Third world, was dependent on a single export. This is not the fault of communism but is endemic throughout the non-developed world. The history of Latin America is the history of mono cash cropping.

[KrazyHorse]

Agro products are one of the hardest things to export long distances, especially low-margin high-volume **** like grain, sugar etc.

[DanS]

Grain from New Zeland costs several times as much as American grain, but that's where Cuba must get it's grain, since not merely the US, but most of Latin America (at the US's behest), boycotts Cuba.

Castro can always get the grain smuggled in from his buddies in Venezuela, if he's desperate.

But I don't think he needs to. He can import directly from the US for many foodstuffs.

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Good God.

Reread it. Why do we export to you in such bulk and not to Europe? The answer is the Atlantic. Period.

It makes a huge difference in cost and time to delivery. Something like 30% of our economy is back and forth with US. With everybody else the loss in trade would be manageable.

this point is moot - Cuba has nothing of much value to export but sugar. This does not apply to canada (because yall export so much more stuff in variety and quantity), so of course you would be hurt terribly by a US embargo.

Cuba was never a developed country, but lke most of the Third world, was dependent on a single export. This is not the fault of communism but is endemic throughout the non-developed world. The history of Latin America is the history of mono cash cropping.

this is partially true. but why has cuba never developed, so as to transform itself from a cash crop society?
*points to communism as major reason*
remember, America used to be a cash crop colony of England (tobacco), yet we developed pretty nicely, even while still a colony.
regardless, this serves my point against krazy that cuba's single major export isnt gonna make major transformation of cuba on its own if the US lifted the embargo. Comparing the damage an embargo would do to canada (or any toher developed/industrialized nation, for that matter) to the damage it does to cuba is rediculous

[Kidlicious]

Good job KrazyHorse. I doubt if they will understand in the end though, but good luck.

[Kidlicious]

You too Che

[Ned]

I think Castro got pass from Kennedy during Cuban missile crisis. Once he is gone, I believe Cuba will again be in play. I think that the United States will demand that Cuba institute free and fair elections to replace Castro. If the Cubans do not provide for free and fair elections, I believe we will begin supporting "Freedom Fighters" that will eventually overthrow the Communist dictatorship.

Did you guys know that the Castro régime oppresses blacks? There's nothing different between the current Communist government in this regard and all prior governments going back to Spanish colonial rule.

[The Vagabond]

I doubt that Cuba's debt to Russia will ever be repaid, or that Russia will even ever reclaim that debt.

But from Iraq, $8 billion is due and payable in a due course.

[The Vagabond]

Dan, do you seriously claim that the US embargo is not extremely damaging for Cuba?