What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies?

[DanS]

Sure. When/where?

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
che, don't you maybe think that Cuban sugar would be cheaper than US sugar?

It depends. If the embargo were gone and Communism still the offical system, then yes, since they could simply charge whatever they wanted, regardless of the costs in production. If Communism were gone, then until the US sugar companies bought everything and mechanized it and started dumping petrochemicals on it, no.

[DanS]

You don't have to pay back grants.

And a good thing too. Cuba's ass would be much more Russia's than it already is.

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
You're talking out of your ass, Kman.

Pre-Castro sugar exports accounted for some ridiculous percentage of their economy. While USSR was still around they supported Cuban sugar industry with preferential importation to counteract US ban. Now they've got neither. Sugar industry counts for major part of Cuban economic contraction/stagnation. And yes, tourism was also vital part of Cuban economy. But the last time I checked they had no problem with Western tourism. There are innumerable commercials for Cuban vacations up here. US ban hurts them in a major way there too.

how is that so important? They arent going to just magically reclaim the sugar market in the US. The niche is filled by dozens of other countries, not to mention domestic suger. Why arent they exporting sugar so successfully to other nations? Russia still needs sugar, no? Why did they stop importing Cuban sugar after the fall of the SU?

lemme clarify
point 1- lifting US ban would be helpful to Cuba
point 2- lifting the ban would not transform Cuba
point 3- Cuba's biggest problem is its system, not hte US ban

i htink you are mainly contesting point 2, but im not sure, maybe 3 as well... we agree on 1 at least

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DanS
Sure. When/where?

16th of August.

Somewhere along the DC metro line (not familiar with area)

[DanS]

Oh, OK. Sure. I'll almost certainly be there.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kramerman


how is that so important? They arent going to just magically reclaim the sugar market in the US. The niche is filled by dozens of other countries, not to mention domestic suger (if that exists?). Why arent they exporting sugar so successfully to other nations? Russia still needs sugar, no? Why did they stop importing Cuban sugar after the fall of the SU?

lemme clarify
point 1- lifting US ban would be helpful to Cuba
point 2- lifting the ban would not transform Cuba
point 3- Cuba's biggest problem is its system, not hte US ban

i htink you are mainly contesting point 2, but im not sure, maybe 3 as well... we agree on 1 at least

Do you understand that prior to embargo they were exporting 90+% of their sugar to the US? That the sugar industry accounted for enough of a percentage of their economy that losing it did an inconceivable amount of damage? That they have a great deal of difficulty getting into any other industries because the biggest potential market is closed to them (bigger by a factor of 10 than everybody else combined)?

They used to be buoyed by USSR (grants and access to market), but that's been gone for 10 years. What do you think would happen to Mexico if you shut the US' doors to it?

[Dinner]

Cuba can export to every single country in the world except the US. I'm smelling a red herring when someone says the American refusal to trade with Cuba is the largest issue in Cuba being an economic basket case. If every single communist country ever formed (that is a communist country which follows communist principles) has had a crap economy in the long run then why do the whinners he think Cuba would be any different? They are looking for complex solutions when the correct solution is simple and right in front of them.

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Cuba can export to every single country in the world except the US. I'm smelling a red herring when someone says the American refusal to trade with Cuba is the largest issue in Cuba being an economic basket case. If every single communist country ever formed (that is a communist country which follows communist principles) has had a crap economy in the long run then why do the whinners he think Cuba would be any different? They are looking for complex solutions when the correct solution is simple and right in front of them.

thank you

[Dinner]

Also for Cuba's sugar industry to be competetive with modern sugar production they're going to need new more efficient machinary. They're still froze in 1959 and the rest of the world's industry has advanced greatly since then. Heck, Mexico and Brazil have passed up Cuba and in the 1950's they lagged behind Cuba in exports of sugar.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Cuba can export to every single country in the world except the US. I'm smelling a red herring when someone says the American refusal to trade with Cuba is the largest issue in Cuba being an economic basket case. If every single communist country ever formed (that is a communist country which follows communist principles) has had a crap economy in the long run then why do the whinners he think Cuba would be any different? They are looking for complex solutions when the correct solution is simple and right in front of them.

Cuba can and does export to other countries (despite US attempts to dictate otherwise, thanks to helms and ****ing burton)

But the US is 1/4 of the global economy, and is right next door. Europe is across the ocean. Latin America doesn't have any money.

This puts Cuba in an impossible situation. Which they're managing to deal with, thank God. Their economy is actually growing again, back from the recessions of 93-96.

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Do you understand that prior to embargo they were exporting 90+% of their sugar to the US? That the sugar industry accounted for enough of a percentage of their economy that losing it did an inconceivable amount of damage? That they have a great deal of difficulty getting into any other industries because the biggest potential market is closed to them (bigger by a factor of 10 than everybody else combined)?

They used to be buoyed by USSR (grants and access to market), but that's been gone for 10 years. What do you think would happen to Mexico if you shut the US' doors to it?

And do you understand that if the US drops the embargo, that they arent gonna automatically reclaim that? Also, do you understand that it is a different world now than it was in 1920? Why would the US want to import all that sugar anyway? As others have pointed out, the US mostly uses corn syrup and sugar beet, not cane sugar.

[DanS]

But the US is 1/4 of the global economy, and is right next door. Europe is across the ocean. Latin America doesn't have any money.

Yeh, this sob story is BS. "Across the ocean" is not that expensive nowadays.

[KrazyHorse]

If Canada couldn't export to the US we'd be ****ed too. It's nice to suggest that they export to other countries, but the transportation issues do have a great effect, you know.

Otherwise we'd be exporting as much to WE as we do to the US. Which we don't by a factor of 100.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DanS
But the US is 1/4 of the global economy, and is right next door. Europe is across the ocean. Latin America doesn't have any money.

Yeh, this sob story is BS. "Across the ocean" is not that expensive nowadays.

Read the post that follows yours.

Across the ocean is very important. Otherwise explain why we do 100 times more trade with you than with Europe, which is of comparable economic size.