What will happen to Cuba when Castro dies?

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by Saras
Communism will fall, and Cuba will be like the Baltic states after the fall of USSR, perhaps even better, due to lifting of US embrago.

If this ever happens (and I doubt it will), this will be largely owing to Castro and communism breaking down the banana-republic mentality in Cuba.

[The Vagabond]

As I recently read, there are more Cuban women involved in prostitution now than in the last days of the old regime.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kramerman


this point is moot - Cuba has nothing of much value to export but sugar. This does not apply to canada (because yall export so much more stuff in variety and quantity), so of course you would be hurt terribly by a US embargo.

Precastro Cuba depended as much (or more) on its sugar exports to the US as we do on our multifaceted trade with the US.

this is partially true. but why has cuba never developed, so as to transform itself from a cash crop society?
*points to communism as major reason*
remember, America used to be a cash crop colony of England (tobacco), yet we developed pretty nicely, even while still a colony.

a) it has, since 1991, taken steps to do so
b) it didn't have to do so immediately after 1961, due to Russian support (direct aid and trade)
c) Cuba needs trade. It is not large enough to be a selfcontained economy and sustain a Western level of development. Any industry it would choose to go into immediately faces a big fat embargo in the US. It is attempting to get around this and is slowly managing to grow its manufacturing industries etc. based on European, Canadian and Latin American trade. But this is a major, almost crippling competitive disadvantage when compared to other Latin American countries, who can and do trade with the US

regardless, this serves my point against krazy that cuba's single major export isnt gonna make major transformation of cuba on its own if the US lifted the embargo. Comparing the damage an embargo would do to canada (or any toher developed/industrialized nation, for that matter) to the damage it does to cuba is rediculous

Two points:

1) No, exporting sugar is not the only answer Cuba needs to find, but

2) Exporting anything (which it needs to do, so that it can afford to import machinery) is very difficult when they can't trade with that 10 trillion dollar economy just north of them.

Other Latin American countries don't do particularly well themselves, and they're allowed to have that trade. But it must be fair to compare Cuba's standard of living with that of the US, and point to the difference as that made capitalism.

[DanS]

Dan, do you seriously claim that the US embargo is not extremely damaging for Cuba?

You act as though it is Cuba's right to have access to US markets. Considering that we don't have to trade with anybody we don't feel good and ready to trade with, I would say definitely that Cuba is forgoing substantial trade and other opportunities by its repressive system.

When Castro croaks and Cuba wants to change its system, we'll talk.

[Kidlicious]

Cuba needs to import to survive. In order to do that they need to export. The US tries to make that hard for them to do that. I think they may have worked through the problem though. I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again.

[DanS]

In order to do that they need to export.

Not really. They can offset the imports by either tourism or foreign investment.

I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again.

Too late.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DanS
Dan, do you seriously claim that the US embargo is not extremely damaging for Cuba?

You act as though it is Cuba's right to have access to US markets. Considering that we don't have to trade with anybody we don't feel good and ready to trade with, I would say definitely that Cuba is forgoing substantial trade and other opportunities by its repressive system.

When Castro croaks and Cuba wants to change its system, we'll talk.

i) One word: China
ii) It's not a question of rights; it's a question of effects. The argument abour whether or not Cuba should have access is different than the one about the embargo's effect on Cuba's economy (and its overall performance)

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by DanS
In order to do that they need to export.
Not really. They can offset the imports by either tourism or foreign investment.

Both of those are problematic for a country that is trying to achieve communist ideals.

Originally posted by DanS

I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again.

Too late.

What do you mean?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
But the US is 1/4 of the global economy, and is right next door. Europe is across the ocean. Latin America doesn't have any money.

First Helms-Burton only deals with stolen property. I.E. assests stolen by the communist government where the owners were never compensated. It is fully justified that if a European or Canadian company would like to go to Cuba and buy this stolen property that they should be treated like a criminal who is dealing in stolen property since that is what they are doing.

Next oceans weren't a big problem when America was primarially and export economy which was isolated from major markets. Nor did Japan have much of a problem when it's only major markets were far away over seas. Modern east Asian countries do just fine sending things by ship largely because they attract alot of foreign investment and have the latest manufacturing equipment. The Cuban communist system virtually insures that Cuban industry will not have the lastest equipment and thus will not be as efficient. Also being state run they will not be as atuned to market needs and will instead be atuned to political needs.

These are the single biggest issues of why every communist country, which practiced communism (that means I'm not looking at China which is run by communists but has a mostly capitalist system) has been a complete economic failure over the long haul. Cuba is no exception.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DanS
In order to do that they need to export.

Not really. They can offset the imports by either tourism or foreign investment

Tourism: check, they're doing that
Foreign Investment: they still need to sell things so that they can pay those foreign investors in foreign currency.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by The Vagabond
As I recently read, there are more Cuban women involved in prostitution now than in the last days of the old regime.

I've heard this was true as well. the economy is so bad many women are prostituting their bodies to foreign tourists just to eat.

[DanS]

Both of those are problematic for a country that is trying to achieve communist ideals.

Fvck communist ideals!

What do you mean?

Stamping out the dollar at this point would require drastic measures.

i) One word: China

China is on a long-term process of opening up its economy. China is no longer attempting to achieve communist ideals (see fvck communist ideals, above).

ii) It's not a question of rights; it's a question of effects.

OK, then yes I agree that Cuba is forgoing substantial opportunities in the US market by choosing this particular form of repressive government.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Kidicious
I think they may have worked through the problem though. I read that they are planning to make the US dollar illegal again.

That would be impossible. I've read that 20%(!!!!!) of the Cuban economy comes from money which emigres send back to their families. That just shows you how dependent these guys are on dollars.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by DanS
Stamping out the dollar at this point would require drastic measures.

All you have to do is turn back the reforms.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Oerdin


That would be impossible. I've read that 20%(!!!!!) of the Cuban economy comes from money which emigres send back to their families. That just shows you how dependent these guys are on dollars.

The only reason they need the dollars is too buy food and oil. They were able to keep the dollar illegal before the collapse of the USSR. Now they have maybe ajusted to there new situation. It is possible.