Team Info and Contacts - PAL

[Sullla]

No, I disagree! PAL is wavering on making this trade - they don't seem to believe our claim. We need to slam home the point that if they trade Code of Laws to Imperio, then Imperio WILL slingshot Civil Service. I guarantee that's what they're going for. We must convince PAL not to make the trade, at least to delay it for a couple turns. Here's the releveant C&D info (thanks to T-Hawk's new insights):

Mutal on T89, (556 * (112 + 100)) / (3 * 491) = 80 shields
Mutal on T90 = (723 * (114 + 100)) / (3 * 496) = 104 shields

At current rate, Mutal finishes Oracle on T92. They likely will delay it one turn to make the trade for Code of Laws, then slingshot Civil Service on T93. We have to try and stop this!

Email PAL back and tell them that we know from Espionage that Imperio is building Oracle in capital, and will be able to finish it as soon as T92. Stress again that they are researching Math, and planning to trade for Code of Laws. This can only mean one possible thing! We should tell them flat-out that we can finish the Oracle on T95, and we will give them for free the tech we grab. It's a devil's bargain, as it helps PAL a lot, but it's one we need to make.

If all we accomplish is getting Imperio to slingshot something other than Civil Service, we will already have acheived our goal. And if they get greedy and continue to go for CS, we steal it out from their noses ourselves.

I don't want to see our team sit back and give up on this issue. PAL is wavering, let's bring them over to our side of the issue!

[Sullla]

Originally posted by ruff_hi
We mentioned T95 to them - so that is where it comes from. I think the Oracle hunt is over- if Imp cannot sling CS they will take a lesser tech.

Key point: we can't beat them to Oracle, true. But they have no idea we're even racing them! All we have to do is get PAL to delay a couple of turns - Imperio is gunning for Civil Service. I am completely convinced of this. Then we swoop in and steal the wonder from under their noses.

If all we achieve is getting Imperio to slingshot something else, we also win.

[regoarrarr]

I'm on board for Sullla's plan.

[ruff_hi]

ok - fair enough. But how do you want to spill the Imperio's Oracle info to PAL - are you thinking that we just say 'Espionage' or do we need to spell out how we know. Do we have enough EP points to say that we can see into their city? Or do we just bluff and say that we can see into their cities?

possible reply ...

PAL,

You said "... we feel the risk of them making Oracle before turn 95 is pretty low".

This is wrong! We know (and I do mean KNOW!) that they have 104 of the 150 hammers already invested in the Oracle and that they can put 24 hammers per turn into it (without chopping - which we have seen them doing).

So they are on target to finish the Oracle in 2 or 3 turns - if not quicker - 1 chop will yield 40 hammers all by itself.

Imperio have told us that they are teching Maths and we estimate that they will be in a position to trade this to you for CoL within 1 or 2 turns. Thus the Civil Service sling is almost guaranteed for them if you trade them CoL.

Imperio's capital is a tech monster (multiple gold resources) and if they land CS, they will become almost unstoppable.

Team RB is asking that you fudge a few turns on this trade and (if we land the Oracle) we will give you the tech we pick up.

Team RB

[mostly-harmless]

I have gone a bit quite on that matter, as I still have doubts about this whole Oracle business. If we successfully prevent them grabbing CS, they might just go for Aesthetics and have a lead on the Great Lib. I don't see us accomplishing much in that way.

Anyway, regarding the above stated message, get rid of the chopping statement in brackets. The choping I believe takes place at Lakamha not Mutal.

mh

[Dreylin]

Then we need a message:

PAL,

We have strong evidence that Mutal is working on a big project (forest chops, etc.) and suspect that Imperio will be in a position to complete the Oracle as soon as they have researched Maths ... they may even be in a position of needing to delay the build until after your trade.

Unfortunately, our best ETA to complete it ourselves is T95, so the only way we see to stop them slinging CS is for them to have to research CoL themselves.

We understand that delaying an agreed trade will seriously affect your ongoing relations with Imperio. Since this would be a collaborative effort, we are prepared to gift you the tech gained should we land the Oracle.

RB


Couple of additional thoughts; how much detail are we willing to go into regarding our knowledge of Mutal's production? We may need to be prepared to give up our Espionage Point analysis methodology to convince them of the imminency.

Also, should PAL refuse to trade CoL and then we land Oracle, Imperio may put two and two together and target us for reprisals....

Edit: I need to write quicker

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by mostly-harmless
I have gone a bit quite on that matter, as I still have doubts about this whole Oracle business. If we successfully prevent them grabbing CS, they might just go for Aesthetics and have a lead on the Great Lib. I don't see us accomplishing much in that way.

I doubt it - Aesthetics and Lit are chump change techs.

Originally posted by mostly-harmless
Anyway, regarding the above stated message, get rid of the chopping statement in brackets. The choping I believe takes place at Lakamha not Mutal.

So? I didn't say that we saw them chopping at the capital.

[mostly-harmless]

Are we really gifting away the Oracle tech to PAL for a move that will benefit them as much as us (Imperio not slingshooting CS)? We can rephrase towards very generous offer on learned trade.

I think it is fine to reveal our knowledge of the hammers invested and hpt. If they want to know how we get those numbers, we refuse.

mh

[sunrise089]

I am good with sending the Ruff draft ASAP. I have minor style quibbles, but the main points are made: we're sure Imperio is going for Oracle, they'll get it by turn 92, and if PAL can help us beat them they get the free tech. The free tech argument should be decisive...even if PAL is faced with the same promise from Imperio, free tech+less risk of us running away with a tech lead than Imperio equals the right decision.

@M_H: I think it's 100% the right call to gift the tech. If we offer to trade, Imperio can make the better offer, and gift their tech. We MUST make PAL see clearly that letting us land Oracle is in their best interest, and they seem reluctant to do so merely because Imperio has such good land.

I am likewise unconvinced that so long as PAL is willing to work with us we should ever consider stepping aside on Oracle in favor of GL.

[Swiss Pauli]

I assume PAL's reference to Oracle being unlikely before T95 is based on Imperio's ETA for Maths. However, they've recently got a shrine and having been mining more gold, so it will completed sooner (in our opinion).

We are sure they are lining up Oracle for 1 turn after they complete Maths (to allow the CoL trade to be made).

We should send them something on these lines,as it avoids mention of our Espionage knowledge. However, we shouldn't offer them a free tech as that might be too obvious to Imperio, but a lopsided trade can be justified if Imperio are suspicious.

I've already mentioned Mutal being a BUR-monster, so no need to send it again.

In the end, it's PAL's call (and they could also ask for the Oracle tech), so we just have to cross our fingers.

[ruff_hi]

Originally posted by mostly-harmless
I think it is fine to reveal our knowledge of the hammers invested and hpt. If they want to know how we get those numbers, we refuse.

Ok, here is someone else that we cannot let loose as a diplomat. You never refuse. Similar to not talking about the land boundaries with Templar. If they ask, we just say something like ...

"Come now, you don't expect us to reveal all of our secrets on the first date."

Or

send them an image of someone tapping the side of their nose (that might not translate to the americans).

[Sullla]

I really like Ruff's message. PAL will likely assume that we've spent the Espionage points needed to investigate Mutal, which would be entirely possible at this stage in the game. We've had Alphabet tech long enough to build spies, after all.

I proposed offering our Oracle tech to PAL because that's the only real way I can see them agreeing to work with us. Remember, they're already giving us Code of Laws tech for practically nothing. We just sent them horses for 10 turns. Our teams are working very closely together already. Yes, PAL is a major danger to win the game long-term. But in the short and medium term, we may as well work together to dominate our respective continents. Besides, which scenario would you prefer to see:

a) Imperio slingshots Civil Service
b) We slingshot Currency or Metal Casting and gift it to PAL

I think b) is vastly preferable for our team.

[regoarrarr]

Not to mention that we can use the fact that we gifted them a tech as a chit to cash in later on.

I mean of course we won't mention that now, but down the road we can be like "And don't forget that we GAVE you Currency!!!"

[ruff_hi]

email sent - just a slight change in that mentioned above ...

PAL,

You said "we feel the risk of them making Oracle before turn 95 is pretty low".

This is wrong! We know (and I do mean KNOW!) that they have 104 of the 150 hammers already invested in the Oracle and that they can put 24 hammers per turn into it (without chopping - which we have seen them doing).

So they are on target to finish the Oracle in 2 or 3 turns - if not quicker - 1 chop will yield 40 hammers all by itself.

Imperio have told us that they are teching Maths and we estimate that they will be in a position to trade this to you for CoL within 1 or 2 turns. Thus the Civil Service sling is almost guaranteed for them if you trade them CoL.

As we mentioned previously, Imperio's capital is a tech monster (multiple gold resources) and if they land CS, they will become almost unstoppable.

Team RB is asking that you fudge a few turns on this trade and (if we land the Oracle) we will give you the tech we pick up.

Team RB

[Sullla]

I would send a followup email to PAL:

- Imperio discovered Math this turn, as we predicted.
- Imperio has 124 shields invested in Oracle in their capital.
- Imperio's GNP is 116, by far the highest in the game.
- If you trade them Code of Laws for Math, they WILL slingshot Civil Service. We think it is in both team's interest that this not happen.
- Our offer to build Oracle on T95 and gift PAL our free tech is still on the table.