Turn 99 - 590BC -

[nbarclay]

As much as I hate to sacrifice a worker, it's probably worth it.

[notyoueither]

Upgrade the sword now. We never know when they will commit more Immortals to the plains. Better to attack with a 4 attack unit than a 3 if something strange happens between turns, no?

[Aeson]

I agree on all those points Nathan. We'll almost certainly want the EotS Pike on H8 next turn to keep it safe.

[notyoueither]

Unless there is a good reason to save the 20 gold.

[Arrian]

I agree, Nathan, that's exactly how I'd do it.

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

Aeson, what are the odds (as best you can pin them down) of a pike in Tempest taking no damage or only one point of damage from a vet immortal? Please factor in the fact that the first three would have cats taking a shot at the immortal on its way in.

[Aeson]

I think we can short rush a Pike in Bolderberg next turn. There will be Cats at 68g a peice in WW, SS, and OG.

How much gold can we expect next turn?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by nbarclay
Aeson, what are the odds (as best you can pin them down) of a pike in Tempest taking no damage or only one point of damage from a vet immortal? Please factor in the fact that the first three would have cats taking a shot at the immortal on its way in.

Over 30% chance per Pike attacked of winning with no loss or only 1 pip lost. That is against a Vet Immortal with no Cat factored in.

CFC combat calc.

[notyoueither]

re the East and SS6.

They have 3 Immortals to strike H8, and we have 3 units? Next turn they have 5, correct?

Are we going a little thin at H8 if we send 2 units to SS6 this turn?

[Aeson]

It's 15.5% for no damage without the Cat.
It's another 21.3% for 1 damage without the Cat.

The Cat eats up a bad roll (one which would hit the Pike) about 37.2% of the time. I'm not sure how to account for that (or even if I should). It also knocks the Immortal down a hp about half the time.

So: (ratio of 1:1 for 3hp vs 4hp Immortal)

It's 24.8:15.5 that no hps are taken off. 20.15% no damage with cat support.

It's 27.6:21.3 that 1 hps are taken off. 24.45% that 1 damage is taken with cat support.

So overall it's 44.6% that the fortified Vet Pike in Arashi with Cat support takes 0 or 1 damage from a Vet Immortal.

(sorry if my math is off.. but it should be close)

[nbarclay]

We're currently at +134 (with 37 gold in the bank). But I think we're probably past the point where we need to use cash to rush units. We're up to average relative to them in spite of the advisor's ridiculous undervaluing of WCs, and once we break their Spinebreaker force (or maybe just once we build a few more units), we'll be strong.

[Aeson]

We have 4 units at H8 this turn, and will have 2 more Pikes to put on it next turn if we want. So 5 Immortals can't break through the first turn (EDIT: that they have 5 available to attack with), and we will have Pikes each turn that can make it there from Hurricane and EotS from now until the end of our GA.

[notyoueither]

I won't feel safe until H8 is a done deal. Currently it would take 3 or 4 pikes to secure it (4 to be safe). I think we should rush a few pikes in the smaller cities starting after the completion of ST's.

We are only done rushing units if we want to drag this war out longer than need be.

[Aeson]

If their stack does break this turn, I think we should consider the Aquaduct in Tempest as our next cash rush. If we lose 2-3 Pikes though, I think short rushing the Pike in Bolderberg would be a good idea.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Aeson
We have 4 units at H8 this turn, and will have 2 more Pikes to put on it next turn if we want. So 5 Immortals can't break through the first turn (EDIT: that they have 5 available to attack with), and we will have Pikes each turn that can make it there from Hurricane and EotS from now until the end of our GA.

Good, I forgot about the MedInf in H8.