Turn 99 - 590BC -

[nbarclay]

Aeson's math would seem to give Vox about a 50-50 chance of getting a shot at a swordsman or medieval infantry if they attack Tempest (i.e. of not having two or more pikes survive intact enough to take on a second attacker), and if they do, it's probably going to be with a regular immortal so we'd have about a 50% chance of surviving that attack. So even if they attack Tempest, there's only about a 25% risk that we'd lose our newly upgraded medieval infantry if we go ahead and upgrade. (Yes, this is very rough math, but it shouldn't be way too far off.) And it's also entirely possible that Vox won't attack Tempest. Given that situation, my inclination is to go ahead and upgrade.

[Aeson]

The thing about the Aquaduct in Tempest is it comes out as a 40g per turn 'rushing units' upgrade to our production capacity... so should pay off in roughly 5-6 turns. Since our offensive will take significantly longer than that, it should actually speed up the conquest (if there are no immediate threats to our cities of course).

H8 is as close to a done deal as it can get IMO. A Pike in SS next turn would be great though. (more reason to keep that 20g)

[nbarclay]

By the time Vox can bring five immortals to bear, we can have two pikes (one fortified), a fortified veteran medieval infantry, and two fortified regular swordsmen on H8 and two pikes (one fortified), a fortified vet swordsman, and a fortified vet medieval infantry on SS6. Since three of Vox's immortals would be regular, Vox's odds of penetrating H8 would be less than one in a hundred, and we could scramble the SS6 defenders, two new pikes, and a new medieval infantry from Tornado to deal with the situation - plus another two pikes by the time any but Vox's last last attacker could reach H8. That seems like an acceptable risk at Hurricane 8, and it gives us an excellent shot of holding SS6 as well.

[Aeson]

Compare that 25% risk to the payoff though. +1 on offense with a 3HP attacker going onto the Mountains. The chance for a Sword vs a 2HP 2D unit is 57%, chance for a Med Inf in the same situation is 68%.

Against a 1HP unit (which would be the only case I'd want us using 3HP units against the troops on Mountains) the odds are S 81, M 87.

I don't think the payoff covers the bet.

[nbarclay]

A pike in Sandstorm next turn would be an interesting proposition. We could guarantee that H8 would hold while at the same time having two pikes and two other units on SS6. But upgrading a sword this turn would not stop us from doing that.

[Aeson]

The cost is 108 for the SS Pike. How much for the Bolderberg short rush?

[nbarclay]

If Vox attacks, we'll have six cats to dent whatever is left of their forces. By the time that's done, are you so sure they'll have anything left with more than one hit point? Also, there's a chance (albeit a small one) that Vox might move 8 toward Sandstorm next turn. If they do that, an extra medieval infantry to supplement our WCs could come in handy.

[Theseus]

I'd like the vet MedInf in Tempest to take a whack at an Immortal.

[Theseus]

Good job on troop dispositions, btw.

[Aeson]

It's 50:50 odds. Defending the Vet Med Inf gets another 6.5% odds of winning.

[nbarclay]

32 for the Bolderberg short rush. (I put Bolderberg up to 12 net shields last turn, at the expense of a little gold, just in case we might want to do a short rush there.) So we can afford both rushes and the upgrade.

[Aeson]

If Vox attacks, we'll have six cats to dent whatever is left of their forces. By the time that's done, are you so sure they'll have anything left with more than one hit point?

That's my point, the odds for the Reg Sword are almost the same as the odds for the Reg Med Inf if there are 1HP Immortals to be killed.

[Aeson]

32 for the Bolderberg short rush. (I put Bolderberg up to 12 net shields last turn, at the expense of a little gold, just in case we might want to do a short rush there.) So we can afford both rushes and the upgrade.

Then I'm fine with either way.

[nbarclay]

In favor of Theseus's idea, using our vet to attack dents Vox's stack no matter which city they go for, while on defense, the vet is completely useless if Vox attacks the city he's not in. The down side is that if we lose, Arashi comes out a defender short and wounded units are more likely to get killed if Vox attacks Arashi. (I've already moved a reg sword and a reg med inf into Tempest.)

[nbarclay]

One other thought on Theseus's idea: if Vox bypasses both cities and goes for EotS, attacking now means we attack with less favorable odds than we'll get later after they leave the mountains.