Silly Rules succession game

[rjmatsleepers]

Originally posted by Straybow

(you could do that by calculating the Net Present Value of the flow of gold you will receive during the following years, but I don't think it's worth the effort)

Inflation is zero and there is no borrowed money with interest charges, so the calc is simple. You can do a ROI study which becomes simple to the point of trivial:
Payback period = (Cost-(delivery×2)) / (continuing trade)
For Cost < delivery×2 period = 1
* Straybow looks for a smilie with a professor's cap and pointer

I don't find this very convincing you seem to be saying either that the cost of capital is zero or that it is infinite. The implication of the first is that one unit of gold in (say) 100 turns time is worth the same as one unit now. The implication of the second is that a unit of gold in one turn is worth nothing compared with that unit of gold now. Neither of these seem to be right. The future flow of trade arrows from a trade route has some value, but it would be more valuable to have them as a large lump sum now than as a flow continuing for many turns.

I agree that there is no formal borrowing with interest charges, but you can sell one of your white goods and then rebuild it which provides a pseudo borrowing with a cost associated.

Similarly you can "invest" your gold in white goods, caravans or wonders in order to get a future return.

This suggests to me that there is a finite, but non-zero cost of capital for the net present value calculation. (But I have no idea how to calculate it, or even give it any bounds other than zero and infinity.)

RJM at Sleepers

[La Fayette]

I started a thread describing and discussing that kind of calculations about 2 years ago, but Apolyton's search engine seems to be on strike.
I'll give a link ASAP.

[-Jrabbit]

So Straybow, it's your turn, dude.

BTW, for sonic stimulation, try opening your window and pretending the passing traffic is Industrial Jazz.

[Old n Slow]

True, there is no inflation in the game and classic “borrowing” isn’t there as well, but there definitely is an interest rate (or time value of money) in the game, and the “cost” might be best measured by the opportunity cost of the risk adjusted alternative investments. Note that the risk reduction measures (military units) can thus affect the NPV, as well as other growth ventures (settlers, white goods, etc.); also the length & map size of the game could also affect the equation.

No, I think that the calculation of the NPV is not so simple, but rather the calculation of the risk adjusted profit maximizing of the portfolio could be worthy of a PhD dissertation (hmmm wonder if a University would accept that proposal?)

[rjmatsleepers]

Originally posted by Old n Slow
there definitely is an interest rate (or time value of money) in the game

The time value of money (tvom) seems to change during the game. There are parts of the early game where money is so short that even very worthwhile investments (eg a library in your SSC) have to be put off. Once you have an efficient railway and transport delivery system, money is much less of an issue.

Another thing that your PhD thesis needs to take account of is the relationship between tvom and goals / strategies. Things are different in an early landing game, compared with a conquest game. (And very different in a Silly Rules game )

Have you found the previous thread yet Marquis La Fayette?

RJM at Sleepers

[La Fayette]

No sorry,
The 'search' engine is on strike as far as I am concerned

(but Oldn Slow has just given the basic idea behind my calculations: time value of money = 1 gold next turn is worth slightly less than 1 gold now)

[rjmatsleepers]

Originally posted by La Fayette
Oldn Slow has just given the basic idea behind my calculations: time value of money = 1 gold next turn is worth slightly less than 1 gold now

The crucial question is how much less than the value of 1 gold now is the value of 1 gold in a turn's time.

To give a practical example:

assume you can deliver a caravan this turn and get 100 gold (plus 100 arrows) for it;

alternatively you can move on and deliver the caravan to a different city next turn;

how big does the payment for delivery to the second city have to be for you to choose to wait?

101 gold? 120 gold? 250 gold?

The values have been choosen to reflect my (subjective) valuation in an early game. I'd never bother waiting for 1 extra gold; I'd always wait if it gave me an extra 150 gold; and I don't know what I'd do if the delivery bonus gave me an extra 20 gold. Presumably therefore my subjective discount rate is about 20%. But is there any rational basis for this?

RJM at Sleepers

[Straybow]

Yes, I am done

/me Looks around; wonders why he signed up for this silly game
1784 (end of turn tweaking) We are a Democracy and should be celebrating! But if I start now, I have to revolt at the end of '86 and it won't do any good. Unless…
1786 French build Leo's. So do we save up Food for SoL, or for some future wonder?
We discover Mysticism, now must research Astro. Silly citizens in 3 more cities rejoice! Disband one clunky Trireme for shields in Verdun. Load one Caravel w/Beads and await a Dip to hunt more neighbors. What else are Beads good for?
/me forms a desperate coalition in Congress and refuses to let the barbarian Despots in!
1788 Silly citizens in 3 cities start "doin' what comes naturally!" More cities get the idea of how silly celebrating can be!
1790 Americans in 6 cities breed like silly fools! Joanie establishes Froggie Democracy.
1792 Soon it will be time to build Aquaducts! Gold Caravan searches for Rouen
1794 Beeble Gems to Avignon 390 (+6). Adv Tribe Sticky Moose finds joining our silliness irresistable! Despots trick the new Sticky Moose Representatives; Straybow's coalition no longer in majority.
1796 Despot Party turns the economy into rancid Yorkshire pudding with their Kickbacks for Kronies program. Citizens murmur, martial law declared to control disorder. Four entertainers recruited by the Dept of Silliness form the group *N-Beat. Parents soon too busy saving up for overpriced tickets to complain about the economy. Second clunky Trireme disbanded for shields at Verdun. Rouen spotted, directly in legal move path.
1798 We discover Astronomy, move on to Philosophy. Bozo Mkt (rushed last turn). Monty Gold to Rouen 204. Monty trade route lets me drop an Elvis at 40% Lux. Send Wizard back to the farm at Goodie.
1800 Wabbit Hides to Rheims 78. Landed just to snoop around, might as well get it over with.

Now that we're in Despotism and due to move to Monarchy could've kept that second Trireme since it would no longer cause unhappiness or cost a shield to support. But I already had in mind to scrap it.

Goodie's new caravel is wandering towards Leiden to pick up the 'van (will complete before arrival). Monty needs a Temple soon. Lone settler has one charge, I was thinking of roading the forest before sending up to Monty (by ship since it can't legally move there?) for sacrifice.

[Straybow]

Opportunity cost is not the same as capital cost derived from interest and inflation. NPV is not an opportunity cost calculation per se, just a tmie value of money calc. If you are hard up there isn't a NPV fudge factor, you make the decision by other criteria.

In the delivery case, if the next target city is N turns away and you expect to get +R¹ from the trade route with the first city I first evaluate if +R² from the second city will be bigger than +R¹.

If they are the same and N·R¹ isn't much smaller than bonus differential I'll do the trade now. No guarantee the demand at the second city won't change.

But if +R² is larger it is easily worth the risk to continue a few turns to the second city.

[Straybow]

Hidden specials!

Our homeland can become a paradise of Silk and Pheasant, if we but had the Settlers to do the work!

[Straybow]

Find more cities

A hidden special near our new silly city…
A little black-clicking locates cities…

[rjmatsleepers]

Re: Yes, I am done

Originally posted by Straybow

1784 (end of turn tweaking) We are a Democracy and should be celebrating! But if I start now, I have to revolt at the end of '86 and it won't do any good. Unless…

I am confused (but that is not unusual )

I left us in a Republic - how did you find us in a Democracy?

Did one of us do something very sillY

RJM at Sleepers

[-Jrabbit]

Nice turns, Straybow.
D/L complete. Will play this weekend.

[Straybow]

Re: Re: Yes, I am done

Originally posted by rjmatsleepers
I am confused (but that is not unusual )

I left us in a Republic - how did you find us in a Democracy?

Did one of us do something very sillY

Ummmmmmm
/me checks saves
OOOooops. I guess what throws me is calling the leader Speaker in Republic and President in Democracy where it really should be the reverse… [long political essay eaten by weasels who also threatened to eat my fingers if I typed up another one]

So, should I redo 1796 onward as Democracy?? Shouldn't take too long. I shall post again, with a new save file unless commanded otherwise…

[Straybow]

I got better

/me Looks around; wonders why he signed up for this silly game
1784 (end of turn tweaking) We are a Democracy Republic and should be celebrating! But if I start now, I have to revolt at the end of '86 and it won't do any good. Unless…
1786 French build Leo's. So do we save up Food for SoL, or for some future wonder?
We discover Mysticism, now must research Astro. Silly citizens in 3 more cities rejoice! Disband one clunky Trireme for shields in Verdun. Load one Caravel w/Beads and await a Dip to hunt more neighbors. What else are Beads good for?
/me forms a desperate coalition in Congress and refuses to let the barbarian Despots in!
Democratic reformers confused by Straybow's confusion. (At least we avoided a turn of anarchy.)
1788 Silly citizens in 3 cities start "doin' what comes naturally!" More cities get the idea of how silly celebrating can be!
1790 Americans in 6 cities breed like silly fools! Joanie establishes Froggie Democracy.
1792 Soon it will be time to build Aquaducts! Gold Caravan searches for Rouen
1794 Beeble Gems to Avignon 390 (+6). Adv Tribe Sticky Moose finds joining our silliness irresistable! Despots trick the new Sticky Moose Representatives; Straybow's coalition no longer in majority.
1796 Despot Party turns the economy into rancid Yorkshire pudding with their Kickbacks for Kronies program. Citizens murmur, martial law declared to control disorder. Four entertainers recruited by the Dept of Silliness form the group *N-Beat. Parents soon too busy saving up for overpriced tickets to complain about the economy. Second clunky Trireme disbanded for shields at Verdun. Rouen spotted, directly in legal move path. (Only changed end of turn by re-revolting and going Dem)
Democratic reformers suddenly oust the Despots after several months of suffering. Silly citizens are greatly relieved, and the members of *N-Beat go back to delivering pizzas. New entertainers are recruited by the USO to quell the unhappiness caused by our ships out exploring and delivering cargos.
1798 We discover Astronomy, move on to Philosophy. Bozo Mkt (rushed last turn). Monty Gold to Rouen 204 258 gold (thanks to Dem trade arrows). Monty trade route lets me drop an Elvis at 40% keeping Lux at 30%. Send Wizard back to the farm at Goodie (never needed the specialist; food+trade arrows from sea better IMO).
1800 Wabbit Hides to Rheims 78 122. Landed just to snoop around, might as well get it over with.

Nevermind… Now that we're in Despotism and due to move to Monarchy could've kept that second Trireme since it would no longer cause unhappiness or cost a shield to support. But I already had in mind to scrap it.

Goodie's new caravel is wandering towards Leiden to pick up the 'van (rushed this turn). Can move straight to Leiden, pick up 'van, move straight to Beeble same turn.

Monty needs a Temple soon—or perhaps a Colosseum, which would be more effective and we can afford it. Lone settler has one charge, I was thinking of roading the forest before going up to Monty (by ship since it can't legally move there?) for sacrifice .

Did not rush 'van at Silly Walks because it might be better to lose a few shields and build a Settler. We've got Specials to mine and grass to irrigate and sacrifices to be made to the gods . Should be possible to celebrate back up to 7 immediately, and at least one Colosseum and Aquaduct should be built for our SSC (such as it is), Beeblebrox.