Do you Wii?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Asher

I made no such implication. It is clear that the Wii is also constrained by supply.

But my implication is, this really does not matter. The 360 has managed to enlarge its lead on the Wii and the PS3 in 2006.

then why post

"The Wii is an incredibly simple thing to make, it's easier to produce them faster." If the Wii is supply constrained anyway, this is irrelevant.

[Asher]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
then why post

"The Wii is an incredibly simple thing to make, it's easier to produce them faster." If the Wii is supply constrained anyway, this is irrelevant.

It was in response to your comment that its launch was "as good or better" than the 360's. The reason being they could produce them much faster, and meet more demand than the 360 could.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Asher

I made no such implication. It is clear that the Wii is also constrained by supply.

But my implication is, this really does not matter. The 360 has managed to enlarge its lead on the Wii and the PS3 in 2006.

Yup but two other consoles did so even more. Here are the full Dec data, hattip QuartertoThree

Nintendo DS: 1.6m
PS2: 1.4m
Xbox 360: 1.1m
PSP: 953,200
GBA: 850,700
Wii: 604,200
PlayStation3: 490,700

(Source: Gamefront)

[Asher]

The Nintendo DS is not a console, it is a different market.

And the PS2 does not compete with the 360, it is also in a different market.

[ZargonX]

Asher, you do realize that developers are going to go where the largest number of people are playing, right? It doesn't matter if it's a handheld or a console, or a next-gen vs. a last-gen, companies will put their money where they have the greatest chance of return. It's already happening with the DS, as shown by the next Dragon Quest, which won't be for PS3 as expected, but instead for the DS. Dragon Quest is the largest selling franchise in Japan, so to have the official next entry go handheld is a big deal.

Obviously, the numbers for the "next-gen" are still very much changing, but to just say everything is a "different market" is a false statement. Let's just say, for example, that the 360 suddenly stops selling completely, or slows to a trickle. If a year from now there are 11 million 360's out there, vs. what is it, like 100 million PS2s, developers will put the mass bulk of their effort into PS2 games. It's simple economics.

[Asher]

Originally posted by ZargonX
Obviously, the numbers for the "next-gen" are still very much changing, but to just say everything is a "different market" is a false statement. Let's just say, for example, that the 360 suddenly stops selling completely, or slows to a trickle. If a year from now there are 11 million 360's out there, vs. what is it, like 100 million PS2s, developers will put the mass bulk of their effort into PS2 games. It's simple economics.

But it's not. While there are 100 million PS2s, game sales are VERY low per-unit for the PS2 right now, and dropping fast. There was an article that came out today analyzing the "troublingly low" software sales for the PS2. At the same time, the 360 has the highest software sales of any console in history a year into its lifetime. The average Xbox 360 owner has 5.6 games already.

The handhelds and the home consoles are fundamentally different markets. They require different kinds of developers with different kinds of skillsets and different kinds of gameplay. The games and platforms for such consoles are also noticeably cheaper, cutting into profits and revenues while raising volume sales.

You are looking at the market in a vacuum and perfect situation where those 100 million PS2s are all in use. 2 of those PS2s haven't been played in years and belong to me and my SO, and I'm sure there's tens of millions more like that.

Take a look at the PS2 game sales vs how many PS2s are available in December 06. Ditto for the DS. Compare that to the 360.

Different markets...

[Asher]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4527&Itemid=2

Analyst 'Concerned' Over PS2 Software Sales
By Kris Graft Print | Send to a friend | Email the editor
PlayStation 2 had a great month in December, but Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter says that lower than estimated sales of PS2 software for the month is cause for concern.

ImageAccording to NPD Group figures released last night, the PS2 was the top-selling home game console for December with 1.4 million units sold.

Software performed well for the system, as four PS2 games made it into the top 10 sellers chart for December, but according to Pachter, software sales revenue for the aging console was down 19 percent year-over-year. Wedbush expected PS2 game sales to be flat.

“…The precipitous decline in PS2 software sales concerns us,” Pachter wrote in a note to investors. “Now that PS3 and Wii hardware is beginning to show up at retail, we wonder whether the decline in PS2 software sales will continue. We expect publisher support for the PS2 to continue throughout 2007, and had not expected overall meaningful declines in PS2 software sales to begin until mid-2007, but the December figure may mark the beginning of such a decline.”

The success of the PS2 throughout 2006 significantly eased the pains of a console transition year.

Sales of current generation software (defined by Wedbush as PS2, Xbox, GameCube and GameBoy Advance) were $912 million, missing Wedbush’s expectations of $948 million. The firm estimates a year-over-year decline of 20-35 percent for current generation software in 2007, with next generation game sales “more than offsetting” the decline.

Pachter added, “While it is possible that the greater than expected decline of PS2 software sales was primarily due to greater excitement about next generation consoles, we are at a loss to fully explain the decline.”

[ZargonX]

You do bring up an interesting point about the number of "resale" PS2 consoles. I do know several people who are on their 2nd or 3rd PS2, so it really makes you question the actual number out there "in-use."

The handhelds and the home consoles are fundamentally different markets. They require different kinds of developers with different kinds of skillsets and different kinds of gameplay. The games and platforms for such consoles are also noticeably cheaper, cutting into profits and revenues while raising volume sales.

I would disagree with you on this point, though. Handheld games do require different development teams, but those teams are often much smaller, and much cheaper to run. Hence, having a widely successful handheld game can lead to huge profits, as Nintendo has demonstrated on multiple occasions with the DS. It is very lucrative market for a developer to get into, and most of the largest developers certainly have the people to spare.

[Asher]

Zargon: DS sales suck per unit compared to the 360. This is why I don't lend much credence to the unit sales for handhelds. As I said, it's a different market.

Like the Wii, hardware sales will likely be high, but software sales comparatively much lower.

[lord of the mark]

hardware sales, Japan, hattip Qt3

12/18-12/31 Hardware Sales Chart (Enterbrain/Famitsu):

DS Lite 668,043
Wii 406,158
PSP 192,505
PS3 153,013
PS2 83,844
Xbox 360 37,884
GBA SP 7,945
Gameboy Micro 5,210
Gamecube 2,358
DS 1,883

[Asher]

Impressive 360 sales.

[vovan]

Despite the Wii being arguably in a different market than the 360, let me quote Bill Gates:

The strength of Nintendo on the portable space has been very impressive and surprised a lot of people; and the strength of the Wii; and we see Nintendo as the toughest competition

Emphasis mine. Source.

[ZargonX]

Regarding an earlier discussion, consider it mooted:

Yesterday's overblown rumor regarding a spree of "cancellations" at Konami's Japanese headquarters have proven to be quite untrue. Konami has stated that all the previously listed games, including Gradius and the Wii's eagerly anticipated "Action Adventure 2," are still in the works. The chopped release lists printed in the pages of Famitsu and Dengeki have been attributed to simple error.

[Verto]

Originally posted by vovan
Despite the Wii being arguably in a different market than the 360, let me quote Bill Gates:

The strength of Nintendo on the portable space has been very impressive and surprised a lot of people; and the strength of the Wii; and we see Nintendo as the toughest competition

Emphasis mine. Source.

I think such comments are less about praising Nintendo, and more about just jabbing at Sony.

[Asher]

Anyone else heard the rumours that MS has bought Capcom?