College football 2014 season

[snoopy369]

I think a zero loss Big 10 champion will have a difficult time making the top 4. 1 loss would be pretty much out of the question, regardless of how good LSU is. A good LSU just means that LSU makes the top 4.

Overall, the SEC has just too much strength right now, and the Pac 10 is strong enough that it's going to take one slot. Barring some sort of unexpected result, the top 4 are FSU, SEC #1, and two of [Big 10 #1, Pac 10 #1, SEC #2]. Prior to the conference championship, two of those three will almost certainly be an undefeated team, if not all three, and if SEC #2 loses to SEC #1 but no other team I can't see them not making it equal to an unbeaten team with a weaker schedule of victories.

I could easily see OSU losing out even if they are undefeated, honestly, if Michigan and MSU lose a few weak games; the only other decent team on their schedule is Virginia Tech, and they're not exactly a big power. Beating Navy, Maryland, Illinois, and Rutgers isn't exactly a power schedule.

Their best hope is undoubtedly the Michigan teams winning most of their games, Penn State being as good or better than advertised, and convincing wins over all of their opponents. The Navy game didn't exactly give much hope for that however, and after losing their QB, I'm not sure OSU has much of a shot at going unbeaten anyway.

[Guynemer]

I don't think any big 10 team other than OSU has a chance any more - with that loss, the Big 10 is just not a strong enough overall conference this year. Maybe if everyone else wins out their nonconference schedules, and those nonconference teams like Notre Dame win out against everyone else - but I doubt that. The voters are going to see Wisconsin beat OSU and remember OSU almost losing to Navy, and decide the Big 10 is just not that good.

Sparty is gonna dumptruck OSU, and they have a chance next week to make a big splash when they play Oregon.

[snoopy369]

Somehow I suspect the Ducks will manage to beat MSU at home. Chip Kelly or no Chip Kelly, they have a pretty solid team and a huge home-field advantage. Sparty may well dump truck OSU, but I just don't see the Big 10 being competitive against the Pac 10 this year. Lots of mid level quality teams, no big stars, unless someone has a big breakout season (Denard? )

[Guynemer]

I'm sure we all suspected the Ducks would manage to beat Boise State at home as well.

Sparty ain't ****ing around, man. The out-physicaled Stanford in the Rose Bowl, and that's exactly the sort of team that gives Oregon fits.

[Ben Kenobi]

Prior to the conference championship, two of those three will almost certainly be an undefeated team, if not all three, and if SEC #2 loses to SEC #1 but no other team I can't see them not making it equal to an unbeaten team with a weaker schedule of victories.

I could easily see OSU losing out even if they are undefeated, honestly, if Michigan and MSU lose a few weak games; the only other decent team on their schedule is Virginia Tech, and they're not exactly a big power. Beating Navy, Maryland, Illinois, and Rutgers isn't exactly a power schedule.

Their best hope is undoubtedly the Michigan teams winning most of their games, Penn State being as good or better than advertised, and convincing wins over all of their opponents. The Navy game didn't exactly give much hope for that however, and after losing their QB, I'm not sure OSU has much of a shot at going unbeaten anyway.

Big 12 >>>> Big 10. Okie Lite just about took down the Seminoles. Okie is probably consensus number 1 now.

[Donegeal]

Overall, the SEC has just too much strength right now, and the Pac 10 is strong enough that it's going to take one slot. Barring some sort of unexpected result, the top 4 are FSU, SEC #1, and two of [Big 10 #1, Pac 10 #1, SEC #2]. Prior to the conference championship, two of those three will almost certainly be an undefeated team, if not all three, and if SEC #2 loses to SEC #1 but no other team I can't see them not making it equal to an unbeaten team with a weaker schedule of victories.

I don't care how tough your schedule is, if you don't win your conference, you don't deserve a chance at a national championship. Screw SEC #2.

[Boris Godunov]

Snoop: It's the Pac-12.

MSU is clearly the top team in the Big 10. If they beat Oregon, I think they're more likely to go undefeated than not. In that case, they're a virtual shoo-in to the playoffs. The playoff committee simply would not be able to justify leaving out an undefeated Big-10 champ. Whether that's MSU, OSU or Michigan (it can happen, Guy!), they'll get in. There's just too much history and nationwide fan support for that conference to leave them out.

If by some miracle of the football gods we end up with 5 undefeated champions of the 5 power conferences (ain't gonna happen, btw), then the playoffs will feature the champs from different conferences. Then either the Big 12 champ or the Pac 12 champ will be left out. Ordinarily I'd say it would easily be the ACC, but since FSU is the reigning champ, I can't imagine they'd be left out if they go unbeaten. And unless it's Oklahoma, the Big 12 champ would be at a disadvantage due to that conference not having a championship game, and thus potentially one less quality win for the champ. And I exempt Oklahoma from that solely due to the program's history. Then again, if it's a choice between OU and USC, I've no idea who would be picked...

[Boris Godunov]

I don't care how tough your schedule is, if you don't win your conference, you don't deserve a chance at a national championship. Screw SEC #2.

Well, that's nice in theory, but we have the Alabama-LSU match up to show that the football overlords often think otherwise.

[Boris Godunov]

Since the Baylor game is not in doubt... time for the way too early Top Ten!

I'm going to disregard the pre-season poll rankings, somewhat. Quality wins will matter more. Where the program finished last season also matters some.

1. Florida State (defending champs got a scare from Oklahoma State, but it remains to be seen if the Cowboys are underrated or the Seminoles are overrated)
2. Oklahoma
3. Michigan State
4. Auburn
5. Stanford
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Texas A&M
9. Georgia
10. USC

LSU, Baylor and Ohio State are interchangeable with USC. Right behind them would be some ordering of Oklahoma State (maybe), UCLA (big maybe), Nebraska, Arizona State, Wisconsin and Clemson.

[-Jrabbit]

Only saw a quarter or so, but it sure seemed like FSU had some serious help from referees/replays for a 6-pt win.

[SlowwHand]

Texas A&M looked awesome.

[Boris Godunov]

TAMU certainly had the most impressive win of the week. But it remains to be seen if that is indicative of them being really great, or if if SCAR was just atrocious. Given that the Gamecocks have just switched to a new defense, I'm actually inclined to think the latter is more the case than the former. But if the Aggies continue to have wins like that, they'll definitely rocket up the list.

[-Jrabbit]

Ran across this on FB and had to share...

[Guynemer]

[Ben Kenobi]

Then either the Big 12 champ or the Pac 12 champ will be left out

Why? Big 10 is a tire fire.