Apolyton Fantasy Football (not soccer damnit)

[Donegeal]

Barring a record defensive game from SF (including: safeties(yes, that pluralized), tons of Ints, TDs and lowest yards allowed), I will have the best record by 2 games at 7-1 but still be the #5 (of 12) highest scoring team.

[-Jrabbit]

LOL sums up my year. Now I've overachieved 7 of 8 weeks in Auction league.

Great, Jimmy Graham. I need 33 points from Gore to take the win. 209 against and I have 176.

Under Auction League scoring, 33 from Gore is not out of the question.

[Berzerker]

i need 32 from sf

i got slaughtered in auction, i need 142 from sf

[MRT144]

Dalton > Rivers

[Ben Kenobi]

Under Auction League scoring, 33 from Gore is not out of the question.

Well, if I do win, would 209 be the highest losing score ever? I mean, that's an absolutely ridiculous 30+ points over his projections, and 50+ over mine. You would think that consistantly topping the opponent's projected scores would result in a better team that 3-4.

[snoopy369]

What is your fascination with projected scores? Yahoo's projections are useless, and in this season have consistently been low. Presumably they don't handle some major thing well that we use, like rushing attempts or something.

209 would be a pretty high losing score, but I'm not sure about 'ever'. Guy lost with 212 in week 4 this year, and 2 other teams have lost with over 200 in Auction.

In D/ST, if SF scores 30+ (possible), Berz/Ozzy will have a 230 point scoring loser (same scoring/roster size).

[SlowwHand]

-5.26 from Minnesota defense.

[-Jrabbit]

Ouch. That's pretty brutal, Sloww.

Minor conspiracy theory: I have long suspected that Yahoo is deliberately low in their projections, because it makes people on balance happier with their teams, even if they're losing. You don't have to look too hard to find anomalies that make no friggin' sense at all.

[Ben Kenobi]

What is your fascination with projected scores?

Auction is all about value - finding players that are good players but not valued as high as they ought to be. I'm always on the lookout to see what I can do to improve my strategy from previous years, especially since this year has been so terrible for me in IDP. The first time I get a high pick and I'm doing very poorly.

So I'm paying more attention to what is working for the other players this year than last. I'm really not sure what I will do next year. I have a very long post that I am working on that was going to represent my analysis of the year so far. Suffice to say, I don't believe I've had a single pick in the top half of any particular round the whole season. That is very hard to achieve.

[Ben Kenobi]

Drew Brees (3)
Ray Rice (3)
Aaron Rodgers (1)
Tom Brady (2)
Arian Foster (1)
LeSean McCoy (6)
Calvin Johnson (22)
Matthew Stafford (8)
Maurice Jones Drew (21)
Chris Johnson (17)

.................................................

First round pick analysis:

Best pick? Arian Foster at 5. Bust of the round? a bit of a surprise, as it's Megatron. Megatron was the worst scoring player at a position of lowest priority selected in the first round.

Foster,
Brady,
Rodgers,
Brees,
Rice (5th best pick in the round)
McCoy,
Stafford
MJD* BUST
Megatron * BUST
Chris Johnson * BUST

Ray Rice was the safe, but boring pick. Ray is presently the third best running back overall, behind AP and Foster. My goal was to avoid a bust and I built my team around picking up value at QB. As always, the correct strategy in this league is to pay money for the correct QB when you have that choice.

The correct pick for round 1? QB.

Either Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady was the correct pick at position 2.

Rice was the 5 slot pick.

.................................................

Round 2:

Cam Newton (25) 8
Darren Sproles (5) 2
Matt Forte (20) 7
Matt Ryan (4) 1
Darren McFadden (18) 5
Jimmy Graham (7) 6
DeMarco Murray (26) 9
Fred Jackson (38) 10
Larry Fitzgerald (17) 4
Rob Gronkowski (1) 3

Pick of the round? Matt Ryan. Yes, Jag, you were right and all of us were wrong. A perceived 'reach' paid off with the best pick in the second round.

.................................................


Soo many busts. Did the strategy of picking one of the top value TEs in the end of the second round pay off? Sure, for Gronko. Only three picks supplied positive value - Ryan, Sproles and Gronko. Much maligned selection Larry Fitz scores in the bust territory (as just the second WR taken), and presently 17th.

Correct pick this round, Jag favourite, Percy Harvin. Player that I liked and had on my draftboard that would have made a fine selection? Reggie Wayne. Wayne, Colston, White, Jackson and Julio Jones (all on my draft list), are ahead of Larry Fitz. Lesson learned.

................................................

[-Jrabbit]

Rice is actually the #2 RB. Until week 11, you have to use avg/wk, not total points.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ahh, well ok. Isn't this the saddest squad you've ever seen?

Joe Flacco
Stevie Johson
Andre Roberts (won the starting job over Fitz)
Rashad Jennings (sadly an improvement over my other two backs)
Ray Rice
Brian Celek
Michael Turner
Shayne Graham
Hall
Babineaux
Dumervil
Foote
Dansby.


The defense is fine, but the rest of the team? Wow. Where's the talent? That is just plain sad. And I'm arguing with myself whether to start Washington (whom I drafted), over Turner.

[Ben Kenobi]

Also can we go back to no ****ing waivers? Please. I'm in last, I should be able to add whomever I damn well please.

[SlowwHand]

Ouch. That's pretty brutal, Sloww.

Minor conspiracy theory: I have long suspected that Yahoo is deliberately low in their projections, because it makes people on balance happier with their teams, even if they're losing. You don't have to look too hard to find anomalies that make no friggin' sense at all.

I would almost agree, but I checked DST (and I assume it holds true in IDP) and only one of my positions beat projections this week.

[-Jrabbit]

Inadequate sample. And bad weeks still happen. I'd do some research, but don't really care enough to spend the time. It was just a thought.