Apolyton Fantasy Football (not soccer damnit)

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben's just bitter cuz he took Fitz at #2.2 last year when his team sucked.

It was a mistake from the start. He was always on my 'let someone else deal with his bs', and he finally fell far enough for me to consider him. Pity. Coulda Shoulda Woulda gone with someone else. Trust your heart.

[Al B. Sure!]

It was a mistake from the start. He was always on my 'let someone else deal with his bs', and he finally fell far enough for me to consider him. Pity. Coulda Shoulda Woulda gone with someone else. Trust your heart.

How the **** was Larry Fitzgerald on your 'let someone else deal with his bs' list? What BS?!

The guy who until last year, AVERAGED 86.6 receptions, 1201yds (!), and 9.1tds per season? The 7x Pro Bowler and 4x All-Pro? The 2008 NFC receiving yards leader? The youngest player in NFL history to 700 catches, 7000 receiving yards, and second youngest to reach 10K receiving?

That's his BS?

When Carson Palmer shows some semi-level of competence that wasn't there with Kolb/Skelton/Lindley and Fitzgerald progresses to his mean, you'll look like an ass.

[Ben Kenobi]

How the **** was Larry Fitzgerald on your 'let someone else deal with his bs' list? What BS?!

How many winning teams in IDP had him on them?

Fitz has always been overpriced for what he provides to a team. You're talking about someone, who, before last year, was routinely the WR1 and costing a first pick.

In our league - you can draft a stud QB for the same price (less, even). The value that Fitz provides is simply not worth what he costs to a team. You can pick up a Fitz equivalent much later in the draft.

When Carson Palmer shows some semi-level of competence that wasn't there with Kolb/Skelton/Lindley and Fitzgerald progresses to his mean, you'll look like an ass

If your entire draft strategy relies on Carson Palmer, I feel I'm taking the better bet by avoiding him altogether.

[snoopy369]

Of course, Carson Palmer is a never mobile in the first place QB who is now 34 and playing behind a line that makes the Bears look fortunate. Hence why a top 3 skills WR is eleventh off the board - he could be LF2009 or LF2012 this year. Not a bargain but not a reach, IMO.

[Al B. Sure!]

You can debate the merits of taking a WR with your first pick but shortcomings there probably have more to do with that as a strategy itself rather than the individual player actually drafted. I personally don't think it makes sense to draft a WR, any WR, in the 1st round.

[MRT144]

True, I exaggerated some. But not much.

Fitz - by our settings 137.9 (WR#34)
Roberts - by our settings 135.6 (WR#35)

Fantasy football doesn't care whether Fitz is double or triple teamed, or whether he has talent up the wazzoo. It cares about the points put up on the board. Fitz might be the most amazing WR ever, but at least how fantasy is concerned, he was decent backup material last year. Fantasy!= Real Football.

Given points put up how the **** are you on Fred Jackson's jock for beating out Lynch and Spiller but fantasy values say otherwise.

[MRT144]

I wouldnt take Fitz as Arizona plays against two of the best Ds twice, and their QB situation is strained. They might be a lot better this year but I wouldnt take Fitz any earlier than Alby thats for sure.

[Ben Kenobi]

You can debate the merits of taking a WR with your first pick but shortcomings there probably have more to do with that as a strategy itself rather than the individual player actually drafted. I personally don't think it makes sense to draft a WR, any WR, in the 1st round.

I'm not actually debating the merits of taking a WR with your first pick. I'm debating the merits of taking Fitz with your first pick.

Last year. Fitz at 2, I finished 1-13.
2011. Coldwizard had Fitz. Went 7-7. Had Fitz, AP, MJD and Wallace. Still finished 7-7 with Flacco at QB.
2010. Deviations had Fitz. Went 5-9. Had Fitz, MJD, and Carson Palmer as QB.
2009. Forte's Firemen had Fitz. Went 8-5. Had Fitz, Rodgers, CJ2K. Finished 6th.

The winner was EPW with Schaub, Austin, Wayne, and MJD.

Even on a team with CJ2K, and Rodgers, Fitz wasn't enough to win the championship.

Since Poly IDP league has had more than 10 people in it, Fitz has only once been relevant to the playoffs. He's never won a playoff game, at least not in IDP.

He's the Anna Kournikova of Fantasy football. Looks awesome, never puts out when you need him.

[Ben Kenobi]

Given points put up how the **** are you on Fred Jackson's jock for beating out Lynch and Spiller but fantasy values say otherwise.

Fantasy value involves more than just what a player puts out it involves what a player has to pay to get them. Spiller's now on my, "clown shoes overvalued player list". Like Vick and Fitz. Spectacularly overvalued. FJax would never go in the first round, I've never had to spend anything more than a late third round pick to get him. He also took me to second place in IDP - higher than any team starring Fitz.

[Al B. Sure!]

Ben, if you want to make judgments on the ROI of drafting Fitz, you can't use the performance of teams in a league. There's too many exogenous variables like head-to-head matchups and the other freaking players on the fantasy team!

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben, if you want to make judgments on the ROI of drafting Fitz, you can't use the performance of teams in a league. There's too many exogenous variables like head-to-head matchups and the other freaking players on the fantasy team!

There's a couple strategies that works. 2009 - EPW won with his pick of Schaub.

He had a Stud back in MJD, and two stud WRs in Austin and Wayne. That was enough. Schaub late in the draft gave him a top tier QB and cemented his team. Thats RB WR WR QB.

2010 - Berz won with his pick of Rodgers. He also had studs in Jamaal Charles, Witten and late round steals Brandon Lloyd and the Law Firm. That's QB RB TE RB WR

2011 - A Dead Horse won, but he's an exception. He got Stafford late, but chose Manning early. Steve Smith, Antonio Brown, Frank Gore, Johnathan Stewart and Tony Gonzalez were all late round selections that were just enough to carry him over the line. So that's RB, WR, WR, RB, TE, QB. He had enough depth in enough positions to score wins.

2012 - you have JR's redonkulous team.

Brees, AP, Martin, AJ Green, Cobb, Dez Bryant, Gronkowski. That's an entire starting lineup. He had Bryant for 160. His backup WR was Crabtree and he was a stud too. By the standard of A Dead Horse the year before, JR's backups were better than Zopp's starters. Went 13-1 when Zopp did a heroes defense and actually beat him early on.

Like I said last year - we'll probably never see a draft like that again.

1. You need a stud QB, either early on or late. You need depth, at least 4 players over 200, or 6 players over 175. Depth can be either WR or RB. Depth should be at both RB2, and WR2 - so you don't want a weak RB2 or a weak WR2. The weakest winning RB2 has been Bradshaw at 150, and that was EPW back in 2009.

[Al B. Sure!]

I'm sure it was all so fascinating in that league 2, 3, 4 years ago when those fantasy seasons were in full swing, but no one cares now about your synopsis of the winning fantasy team in a random league in 2010. Nothing in your post even had to do with Larry Fitz to begin with!

If you want to determine the ROI of drafting Larry Fitzgerald, you need to look at his performance, not the performance of a team that drafted him, and compare his performance to a player taken in approximately the same draft position or to some baseline, such as value above replacement.

[Ben Kenobi]

If you want to determine the ROI of drafting Larry Fitzgerald, you need to look at his performance, not the performance of a team that drafted him, and compare his performance to a player taken in approximately the same draft position or to some baseline, such as value above replacement.

At present, Fitz's value over replacement is 1.4 percent. Depending on how the next 3 rounds go (most of the 20th), and the 21st and 22nd, will determine how how much it will increase. So yes, Fitz is still draftable in a deep league like Poly's IDP.

[MRT144]

Are you really claiming that in DST you would not draft fitz under any condition or pay even one dollar minimum in an auction

[Ben Kenobi]

My original list runs 9 round of offensive players, and 90 offensive players. It does not include Fitz.

Assuming every one of those 90 players is gone, the earliest I would draft Fitz would be in the 10th round of DST. So at 91, depending on how the rest of my draft goes. I would not draft Fitz higher than WR4. Right now his ADP is around 25 or so. Albert got him for about what his going rate is this year.

Best case scenario for Fitz?

I go RB RB RB QB TE WR WR DEF RB. Fitz would end up as my WR3 in that case, with a weak WR1 and a weak WR2. So it's conceivable he could jump up to my WR1.