Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[-Jrabbit]

@MRT -- I'm quite confident that you'd hate the waiting just as much no matter where you drafted.

Meanwhile, life beckons. Back in an hour or two.

[MRT144]

@MRT -- I'm quite confident that you'd hate the waiting just as much no matter where you drafted.

Meanwhile, life beckons. Back in an hour or two.

I might hate the wait but at least I could have more ability to leave a semi functioning list.

[Al B. Sure!]

I might hate the wait but at least I could have more ability to leave a semi functioning list.

How so? Explain how your draft position is affecting your ability to leave a list?

[Ben Kenobi]

Horizon limitations I would presume? The person with the greatest impact over your picks is the person picking just before you, a position both myself and MRT find ourselves in.

[MRT144]

How so? Explain how your draft position is affecting your ability to leave a list?

people towards the ends have a high degree of predictable players left after their pick in a round. For example, if Imran leaves a list in odd number rounds, he stands a fairly good chance of getting the player he wants in even number rounds since theres only 4 picks between his picks. I have a 1/12 and 1/14 unweighted chance of getting a player I want on my list. Imran has a 1/4 and 1/22 chance of getting the player he wants thus making it easier to submit a list on the shorter wait between picks.

[Al B. Sure!]

people towards the ends have a high degree of predictable players left after their pick in a round. For example, if Imran leaves a list in odd number rounds, he stands a fairly good chance of getting the player he wants in even number rounds since theres only 4 picks between his picks.

Yeah but if he leaves a list after his second pick, he has absolutely no idea who will be available come his next set of picks. That is more unknown that a mid-round pick.

The only real difference is that with more time in between every two picks, he can better afford to not check the thread as much.

[Ben Kenobi]

That's actually an illusion. Yes, his even round pick is easier but his odd round picks are harder.

Picking in the middle gives you a consistant pick strength throughout. It's actually much easier to pick and project in the middle than on the ends.

[MRT144]

The only real difference is that he can afford to not check the thread as much as a mid-rounder has to.

Which is exactly what Spaced Cowboy is and hence his infrequent checking holding things up for everyone else, list people included.

[MRT144]

That's actually an illusion. Yes, his even round pick is easier but his odd round picks are harder.

Picking in the middle gives you a consistant pick strength throughout. It's actually much easier to pick and project in the middle than on the ends.

His odd round picks only require him visiting once a day, tops. It's not about strength, it's about frequency of checking needed to make picks.

[Ben Kenobi]

True. Better the slow pickers be on the ends rather then right in the middle.

[MRT144]

You're up in the DST Al.

[Al B. Sure!]

Yeah but people like this 'random' component to draft order... the most efficient thing would be to organize everyone by time zone and how often they come online. Have the guys that come online everyday in the morning all grouped together, etc.

But people like randomness for some reason. There really is no inherent benefit to any draft position because it snakes but people seem to think it unfair if it's not random.

[Spaced Cowboy]

Guys, aside from 2 picks, I've made my picks in under 3 hours. I can check poly from work, but all the FF site are blocked, so I can't even do research.

Stats:

D/ST (between picks)
1 - List
2 - 1:19
3 - 11:49
4 - 1:19
5 - 20:28 (and I apologized for it too)
6 - 2:28
7 - 2:09
8 - 2:59

I league
1 - 2:40
2 - 0:08

And you may have noticed that I did not sign up for the live draft, there is a reason. Aside from the two long ones, my times are not that bad. It is hard for me to leave a list when I log off at night and I'm still 8-10 picks out.

[MRT144]

Guys, aside from 2 picks, I've made my picks in under 3 hours. I can check poly from work, but all the FF site are blocked, so I can't even do research.

Stats:

D/ST (between picks)
1 - List
2 - 1:19
3 - 11:49
4 - 1:19
5 - 20:28 (and I apologized for it too)
6 - 2:28
7 - 2:09
8 - 2:59

I league
1 - 2:40
2 - 0:08

And you may have noticed that I did not sign up for the live draft, there is a reason. Aside from the two long ones, my times are not that bad. It is hard for me to leave a list when I log off at night and I'm still 8-10 picks out.

It's no biggie, serious.

[Jaguar]

Some food for thought:

1999 was the single greatest year for fantasy sleepers ever. Let's look at a fairly unremarkable draft from 1999, take the 6 draft slot in a 12 man league, and see how well we can do. For fun, let's expand the roster size to 18, so we can add a couple more undrafted players.

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/1999/options?L=0029&O=17

1.06 Marshall Faulk (RB2)
2.07 Edgerrin James (RB1)
3.06 Marvin Harrison (WR1)
4.07 Isaac Bruce (WR6)
5.06 Charlie Garner (RB7)
6.07 Wesley Walls (TE1)
7.06 Muhsin Muhammad (WR10)
8.07 James Stewart (RB12)
9.06 Jaguars Defense (DEF2)
10.07 Stephen Davis (RB3)
11.06 Steve Beuerlein (QB2)
12.07 Patrick Jeffers (WR7)
13.06 Rams Defense (DEF1)
14.07 Mike Vanderjagt (K1)
15.06 Marcus Robinson (WR5)
16.07 Germane Crowell (WR6)
17.06 David Sloan (TE4)
18.07 Kurt Warner (QB1)

In most years, Fantasy Football markets have at least some semblance of efficiency. In 1999, that was not so. The two best QBs of the year weren't even taken in most drafts. The Colts and Rams, a combined 7-25 the year prior, yielded fantasy superstars. A bunch of the league's best receivers came from nowhere. A bunch of RBs got unexpected starting jobs and did wonders with them. This team is one Randy Moss short of being perfect. If it could swing a trade of some weaker players for Moss, it would have the best possible players at every single position.

Rest assured that it's almost never possible to produce a team this good in normal years.