Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[Berzerker]

He dropped Jason Snelling (186 yards 3 TDs), Dustin Keller (115 yards 1 TD), and Derrick Mason (31 yard 1 TD) for Javon Ringer (1 yard), Devin Aromashodu (0 yards), and Brandon Lloyd (53 yards)... 332 yards and 5 TD's dropped so he could bring on 54 total yards and no TDs from the waiver wire

can you make worse decisions?

Obviously Snelling's status changed after Sunday's game but I doubt any of those players were starters. Hell, I dropped Mason and I'm hurting at WR.

[EPW]

But it's not about winning. This chart is looking at luck. Managers starting the wrong player is luck.

No

And I make it very clear what my chart does.

[EPW]

I don't get the issue...

I think he wants acknowledgment that he's in first place.

[Ben Kenobi]

And I make it very clear what my chart does.

It measures luck. That's exactly what your chart does, and has always done. Isn't that the whole point of the plus/minus?

[OzzyKP]

No one provides any analysis of D/ST.

[EPW]

It measures luck. That's exactly what your chart does, and has always done. Isn't that the whole point of the plus/minus?

I'll respond to this later(though someone like snoopy could probably give a better answer). In the mean time, why don't you get to work on your chart?

[Ben Kenobi]

Which chart? The prediction thread I usually post on Thursdays?

[Al B. Sure!]

No one provides any analysis of D/ST.

Imran and I have the worst fantasy teams EVER.

There. That's your analysis.

[Al B. Sure!]

Ben, by luck, it means relative to matchups. I don't know how much you know so I'll try to keep this simple:

Let's say you have these head to head matchups:
Team A: 145 points
Team B: 144 points

Team C: 25 points
Team D: 24 points

Now, obviously, Team C is incredibly lucky because of the 3 possible matchups he could have had that week (against teams A, B, and D), he happened to get the one guy who he was capable of beating. If you look at all the possible arrangements of the schedule, 2 out of 3 times, he loses. His victory came purely out of the luck of his fortunate matchup.

Team B, meanwhile, is unlucky because 2 out of 3 times, he would have won! He just happened to be matched up against the one guy in that league who could beat him.

What EPW's chart is doing is it's noting that luck... it's rating Team B higher than his record indicates and Team C lower than his record indicates.

If it helps to understand, it's sort of like when a real NFL team has a higher points for value than points against because they blow out sucky guys and then lose very close games to the better teams. They could be below .500 but they would still show up on the power rankings because they're better than their record indicates. Now it's not quite the same thing but it's similar basic concept that analysis of match ups is needed along with the final win tally to really evaluate how a team is doing.

As to things like what you're talking about, there's luck involved in fantasy football period because you never know if Anquan Boldin is going to have 1 catch for 5 yards or 10 catches for 120 yards and 2 TD's... any given week, you are playing the odds when you make the decision to start him or let him ride the bench. There IS luck involved there but it's not the same sort of unavoidable luck as in the above. Your decision to start any given guy is your decision and the luck is only involved within that framework. Can you see why that luck is different than the luck that EPW is measuring?

[EPW]

Alby pretty much got my drift. I'll just add that match-ups are totally out of the player's control, while who you start is in your control.

[Ben Kenobi]

As to things like what you're talking about, there's luck involved in fantasy football period because you never know if Anquan Boldin is going to have 1 catch for 5 yards or 10 catches for 120 yards and 2 TD's... any given week, you are playing the odds when you make the decision to start him or let him ride the bench. There IS luck involved there but it's not the same sort of unavoidable luck as in the above. Your decision to start any given guy is your decision and the luck is only involved within that framework. Can you see why that luck is different than the luck that EPW is measuring?

Absolutely. My point is that EPW's graph doesn't measure this luck, and that it plays a significant role.

Which is why I'm keeping track of it myself and NOT posting those numbers.

[snoopy369]

Erm, luck plays a role in your strategic decisions??? That explains so much...

[snoopy369]

And I'd like to be the first to ask: JR, you have some inside information on Favre you want to share with the rest of us?

[Al B. Sure!]

And I'd like to be the first to ask: JR, you have some inside information on Favre you want to share with the rest of us?

What he do?

[Ben Kenobi]

JR's prediction that Kolb wouldn't start a day ahead of the announcement. Clearly JR can see the future.