Fantasy Football Discussion III

[OzzyKP]

In the D/ST league the two highest-scoring teams just fought it out in the first round of the playoffs. #1 was the 1 seed, and #2 (me) was the 4 seed. Now I move on to face #3 (the 2 seed) for the championship.

[flash9286]

Yep, it is kinda unfortunate we got paired up together. But it was a good game, both teams played well. Congrats, on making it to the championship.

[Zopperoni]

The point shift deal is kind of a pisser.

Commiserations, mate, I got away there.

Congratualations again to Zopper for earning the priviledge to play me in the championship game

Congratulations to you too I look forward to this week's matchup, it should be a shootout!

Just have to hope Slowwy beats out Berz and then I have the best record wrt to draft position.

Considering we do a serpentine draft, that is quite a rubbish statistic.

[Ben Kenobi]

How is it rubbish?

Would you rather have LT or Brees?

[Zopperoni]

Like I said, because it's serpentine. It's not as if the same draft order applies in every round. If you really want to gauge value/performance, you're better off looking at positional draft slot vs. positional points scored, e.g. Ray Rice was the 32nd RB taken (76th player overall) but is currently the #3 RB in scoring.

Of course I'd rather have Brees over LT but mostly because I know the system. If you look inside the numbers though, I've gone "on par": Brees was the 2nd QB taken (9th overall) and is also the #2 QB in scoring at the moment. EPW crushed it, however, with Schaub: 10th QB taken (63rd overall) but #4 QB in scoring, and with Favre: 18th QB taken (142nd overall) but #5 QB in scoring.

This--for me--is how you gauge draft vs. output performance.

[SlowwHand]

Draft is a crap shoot. We can leave it at that.

[Ben Kenobi]

Like I said, because it's serpentine. It's not as if the same draft order applies in every round. If you really want to gauge value/performance, you're better off looking at positional draft slot vs. positional points scored, e.g. Ray Rice was the 32nd RB taken (76th player overall) but is currently the #3 RB in scoring.

Of course I'd rather have Brees over LT but mostly because I know the system. If you look inside the numbers though, I've gone "on par": Brees was the 2nd QB taken (9th overall) and is also the #2 QB in scoring at the moment. EPW crushed it, however, with Schaub: 10th QB taken (63rd overall) but #4 QB in scoring, and with Favre: 18th QB taken (142nd overall) but #5 QB in scoring.

This--for me--is how you gauge draft vs. output performance.

Not really important in the long run. 4 RBs were a notch above the rest, AP, CJ and MJD. The only one not drafted early was Ray Rice. Unsurprisingly, AP, CJ and MJD are in the playoffs.

WRT to QBs, 4 again outperformed everyone else. Brees, Schaub, Manning and Rodgers. Again, all 4 of these teams are in the playoffs. Again, only two were picked outside of the first round, and that was Schaub, while Rodgers went early in the 2nd.

Whereas it's true that draft position is not as strong in a serpentine draft, lets not forget how big an impact the top pick made. Everyone who had a strong top pick made the playoffs.

The ones who drafted high and did not do well:

Turner, Forte, Jackson, Brady, Williams. Jackson and Brady were ok. DeAngelo, Forte and Turner were busts.

LT is the third worst pick of the first round, ahead of only Slaton, and Portis.

You are right that serpentine tries to compensate for this, but really, it's all about the first round. That's where the greatest difference makers are found, and what ultimately, puts you a notch above.

[OzzyKP]

I drafted Turner in the first round and made it to the playoffs (and the championship game). Obviously I'd rather have AP, CJ or MJD, but Turner didn't hurt my playoff hopes. I made smart/lucky picks later in the draft.

[SlowwHand]

If I had a do-over on this year's IDP draft, I doubt I would take Peterson again with the 1st pick.

[OzzyKP]

Yep, it is kinda unfortunate we got paired up together. But it was a good game, both teams played well. Congrats, on making it to the championship.

Yea, definitely. I got unlucky during the season and lost some weeks I probably shouldn't have otherwise I'd be 2nd or 3rd seed.

But this whole thing is a crap shoot anyhow. I am sure I invested a fraction of the time into this that Berz did (with his 40+ trades) but I'm in the championship game and he missed the playoffs. I'm sure he did more research, more planning, had more strategy than I did, but players I drafted low (Ray Rice, Ricky Williams) did very well and I suppose I just got lucky. I did have a draft strategy, and I think it actually worked to my advantage, but I think luck played a bigger role.

This week's game could have just as easily gone the other way, you've definitely got a good team. I thought it was interesting too that after our big trade earlier in the season none of the players we traded were starting this week (Knowson, Stewart, Harvin).

[OzzyKP]

If I had a do-over on this year's IDP draft, I doubt I would take Peterson again with the 1st pick.

Interesting, who would you take? Chris Johnson?

[-Jrabbit]

Ben -- Zopper's position (which is accurate) is that a serpentine draft equalizes things. Look at the draft in pairs of rounds --

1-28
2-27
3-26...

...12-17
13-16
14-15

They all add up to 29. Viewed this way, EVERYONE'S AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION IS THE SAME. This is why the serpentine draft is nearly universal in fantasy sports: It's an equalizer.

It's very simple-minded to tie a team's season-long performance to the first pick. The fact is, this year, there was a high correlation of QB success with early QB draft position (as noted). But that sort of thing runs in cycles. And correlation is not causation.

I've won leagues with first round busts and missed the playoffs with a top performer in the first.
I've won drafting late, I've won drafting early (though I've never drafted first).

Draft position mans squat in the long run. Who you select (and who falls to you) is what matters.

[SlowwHand]

Interesting, who would you take? Chris Johnson?

Based on hindsight, probably. I can't shake the take a RB first syndrome.
But for argument's sake, let's say I took...Drew Brees first. Then filled in with Benson, Mendenhall and Ricky Williams, which I very likely could have done. That's what I say, it's a crap shoot. A RB gets beat to hell and back every time he carries. A WR gets hits that are devastating. A QB takes several hits per game. If it's a high draft pick and he goes out, it hurts.
I'm on the verge of deciding that a QB is most important. A RB can come out unexpectedly, more so than a QB.

[Zopperoni]

In this system, a QB will quickly outscore any other position. However, even in hindsight, I'd still be inclined to take AP as the #1 overall.

The "problem" with Chris Johnson is that in the first six weeks (when the Titans sucked), he was wildly inconsistent.

[-Jrabbit]

True of Ray Rice, too. For the first several weeks of the season, McGahee was getting all the TDs and the choice wasn't looking that brilliant.

It's not how high the position scores, it's the differential between players at the same position that matters. The hard part is, you have to look into the future.