Fantasy Football Discussion II

[EPW]

So EPW, you're saying Sloww is 4th in overall scoring, was 2nd in your "if you played everyone every week" meme, yet manages to be 2-6 via projections?

Sounds like solid support for my "Yahoo projections are goofy" theory.

Also sounds like you have even more time on your hands than Ben.

Carry on.

No...he's 2nd in overall scoring, 1st in my "meme", and 2-6 by yahoo projections. Besides Slowwy, the projections aren't that bad.

Actually, it was pretty easy to do the meme with a spreadsheet. Though I admit it took some time to type it out.

[SlowwHand]

I made one trade, and some viewed it controversial; having said that, I agree with the mystified.

[snoopy369]

No, I "could" be 5-3. But my team is mediocre (see total points) and hasn't been particularly fortunate. So I'm 2-6 and not complaining. It's obviously not my year.

It's all my own doing. Of my first ten draft picks, only one has met expectations. (Position rank by pts/week)

1. SJackson (#15 RB) -- ranks as RB2 in a 14-team league
2. Megatron (#37 WR) + inj -- ranks as WR3
3. RGrant (#19 RB) -- another RB2
4. Cutler (#10 QB) - equal to draft pos -- legit QB1, which is sad
5. BMarshall (#21 WR) - better lately -- ranks as WR2
6. GOlsen (#17 TE) -- very disappointing; was supposed to pair with Cutler
7. Josh Wilson - no + inj
8. LEvans - hell no
9. EGraham - LOL
10. DHester (#19 WR) -- ranks as WR2

My best contributors:
Percy Harvin - 13th round (#3 WR)
Vernon Davis - 17th round (#2 TE)
Steve Smith - 18th round (#11 WR)

Arguably, only Josh Wilson (1st defender) was drafted noticeably higher than than conventional wisdom suggested at the time of the draft. I just made some unfortunate choices of players that haven't delivered.

Thank goodness for my luck in finding a few diamonds in the late rounds or I could be dancing with DOY. Frankly, it could be worse -- I haven't been particularly hard-hit by injuries.

I'd argue you have 3 'meets', and Cutler is perhaps the bottom of those three. Grant, Cutler, and Hester are all acceptable for their draft position; in the 10th round finding a mid-WR2 is great. That's after all after everyone else has at least 2 and some 3. Grant in the 3rd is also a mid-RB2 and is fine there, by that point all have 1 RB and several have 2 so you're about where you're expected.

You're hurt mostly by your drafting strategy, which was QB1 late in a league where QB consistency seems to have a big factor on winning, and RB3 late. Megatron is probably a reach at #2, because of the QB situation, although you could make an argument that w/o the injury he'd actually have been a top-5 WR; I think he was a risk/reward pick, which is hard to make in the 2nd round. You also took a TE a bit early, and a defender a bit early; that left you with Earnest Graham, who pretty much sucks.

But you did very well with 'diamonds in the rough' as you say, particularly Harvin and Steve Smith (NYG). I wonder if you might not have been able to turn two of your four receivers into a reasonably high quality QB or RB, though you were somewhat hurt by the odd distribution of RBs and WRs in the league.

I'm definitely mystified by some of the trades in this league...

And Ben, I meant to include you in there, but skipped you somehow. I think you will make the playoffs, so I think you'd adjust Jaguar down to 6th, put you in 5th at 5-7% and put Jag at 3-4% (or whatever makes the math work). That actually makes me think that the playoffs are likely set; unless Berz overtakes Jag, which I don't expect, or you lose 3 of your last 5, which is not by any means out of the question, but is also not necessarily highly likely. We'll see

[Ben Kenobi]

Why are you mystified?

I've tried to deal Farve for a legit RB2, oh I dunno, at least 10 different offers to different teams.

If none of the rest of you are willing to make a decent deal, I'm perfectly happy to deal with Tuberski.

I wanted TE quite some time ago. He was my "ideal" backup QB. Larry Johnson needs some more loving too. I think it's total bull**** that the commish would suspend him for calling a person a ***. I mean really.

How lame is that?

[EPW]

Wow, Farve+Collie for Larry Johnson+Trent Edwards?? That's crazier than the trade I made with you!

[Ben Kenobi]

10. Jedibolts.......................3-5
10. Hairball Express..............3-5
12. Dallas Dwarf Tossers.......2-6

Like I said earlier. I manage according to yahoo projections.

Mr. Yahoo makes all of my decisions for me.

[Ben Kenobi]

I needed an RB 2 badly.

I made offers for Ryan Grant, Stephen Jackson, Addai, Cadillac, Mendenhall.

Zero, zip, zilch, zippo, nada.

This way I get an RB2 and I still have FJax, Beanie and Bell. I have a decent backup QB. My RB2 and RB3 are an upgrade over Jamal Lewis + McGahee.

I also don't touch the core of the team, Rivers + LT + Gates + VJax + Colston + Ward.

Bonus is that I'm now +5 on draft picks in the first 10 rounds. I've been able to convert most of my lower level picks + waiver wire acquisitions into extra picks, of terrible and disappointing busts.

[Ben Kenobi]

Hmm, JRabbit, you make me ask a question.

1. LTomlinson (#44 RB) -- ranks as RB3 in a 14-team league. (9 rounds lower).
2. PRivers (#12 QB) -- ranks as a weak QB1, even with draft order.
3. AGates (#6 TE) -- ranks as TE1 + LJohnson (#46 RB) ranks as RB3. AG is slightly worse.
4. MColston (#10 WR) -- ranks as average WR1, 1 round higher than projected.
5. HWard (#17 WR) -- ranks as strong WR2 + BWells (#65 RB) ranks as RB4 HW is slightly better.
6. VJackson (#9 WR) -- ranks as average WR1 VJ is about 4 rounds higher.
7. JLewis (#52 RB) -- ranks as backup RB (roughly 4 rounds lower). + VShiancoe (#8 TE) ranks as TE1, about 2 rounds higher.
8. DWare
9. BSanders
10. TPolamalu + JFarrior + FJackson -- (#14 RB) ranks as RB1 +TEdwards (#22 QB) ranks as QB2

The only other player of relevance has been

13. WMcGahee, who is an #30 strong RB3. McGahee is ranked about 7 rounds higher right now.

So basically, if I were to redraft based on current value:

1. PRivers
2. VJackson
3. MColston
4. AGates
5. HWard
6. FJackson (1st RB!)
7. VShiancoe
8. LTomlinson
9. LJohnson
10. JLewis
11. TEdwards
12. BWells

[-Jrabbit]

...still waiting for actual question...

[snoopy369]

I'm not sure Larry Johnson is an upgrade over starting Donegeal at RB, but who am I to object. I would say that using the metric of "draft position" to determine quality of player is only about 85% stupider than using the Yahoo! projections.

You also don't at all understand JRabbit's purpose with analyzing his draft, which was to analyze how well the actual players he drafted (NOT traded for/picked up) performed in relation to where he drafted them.

In your draft, basically, Colston, Ward, and Vincent Jackson have performed at or above where they were drafted; LT, Gates, and Rivers below (though is he really the #12 QB?); Lewis below; not sure about your defenders, probably below but who knows.

[Tuberski]

I remain absolutely mystified by some of the trades in IDP this year.
(I speak as a 2-6 manager, not as commish.)

Watch me go on a 5 game win streak, make the playoffs, and knock out the JediBolts in the first round.

I was rather mystified as well.

ACK!

[-Jrabbit]

I'd argue you have 3 'meets', and Cutler is perhaps the bottom of those three. Grant, Cutler, and Hester are all acceptable for their draft position; in the 10th round finding a mid-WR2 is great. That's after all after everyone else has at least 2 and some 3.

Yeah, maybe 3 'meets' -- but no one in my top 9 has exceeded expectations in any way. Grant and Marshall were way down their position lists until a couple recent good weeks.

You're hurt mostly by your drafting strategy, which was QB1 late in a league where QB consistency seems to have a big factor on winning, and RB3 late .Megatron is probably a reach at #2, because of the QB situation, although you could make an argument that w/o the injury he'd actually have been a top-5 WR; I think he was a risk/reward pick, which is hard to make in the 2nd round.

I was planning on a QB in the 2nd, but my top 5 were all gone. I felt there was too much dropoff after that, so I figured a WR1 was the way to go. I wasn't alone. After Calvin, the next picks were Jennngs, SSmith and Wayne. A reach? Not really. Megatron had shown the ability to have a huge year even with a bad QB in '08. To me, a QB would have been a reach in that spot. I've paid dearly for taking Cutler over Schaub or Matt Ryan, but Schaub's injury history, Atlanta's run-based offense and my Bears fandom combined to dictate a bad decision. (Eli, Cassel, and Big Ben were still there as well, and Favre was still not signed at the time.) I can live with that.

You also took a TE a bit early, and a defender a bit early; that left you with Earnest Graham, who pretty much sucks.

Taking the "early' (6th round) TE is against one of my personal draft tenets (5 of the first 6 picks should be RB/WR), but the Olsen buzz was huge, the TE run had started and I liked the pairing with Cutler. Has it been a disaster? Yes. Would I rather have Daniels or Cooley? Until the injuries, yes. But from what I knew at the time, it wasn't a bad pick.

Josh Wilson (7) was more than 2 pts/game better than any other defender in football last year. That was the plan -- to get the (nominally) most valuable defender, start the run on defense and cherry-pick more offense while it happened. I didn't take my 2nd defender until the 12th. I don't regret that pick, or that plan. It just didn't work out.

If I had to do it all over again, I might go with a QB at 5th overall. But I liked SJax a lot (and he's been decent in the few games that Bulger has played), and I really thought it would be far more painful to take my RB1 at #24 (and looking at the draft, I stand by that).

Based on value, I don't think I drafted poorly at all. It's just not my year.

[Ben Kenobi]

In your draft, basically, Colston, Ward, and Vincent Jackson have performed at or above where they were drafted; LT, Gates, and Rivers below (though is he really the #12 QB?); Lewis below; not sure about your defenders, probably below but who knows.

Gates is at his draft position. The Defenders are below (Polamalu and Sanders have been injured).

I have, in my top 12, had 4 serious injuries. Both my RBs and my two top defenders. This week is the first week where I can start my full starting lineup!

Edit, spoke too soon. Man, what a bust of a draft pick. Bye bye Bob Sanders.

[EPW]

EPW's Ultimate Week 9 Predictions

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 19-16

Hairball Express(13) vs. The Priapic Love WoW(14)
This is the match up of the losers. There isn't much to say here, the PLWoW have 4 byes and a QB who isn't likely to play, and even if he manages to switch them out in time he'll be lucky to break 100. the Hairballs should be able to get at least 110 points, and win by 12pm on Sunday. Hairball Express wins 110-80.

Mountain Goats(5) vs. Detroit Deity Duo(12)
Tom Brady!
Detroit Deity Duo wins 150-110.

Forte's Firemen(7) vs. Vicious Rabbits(11)
The Forte's Firemen have a 4-4 record but that could easily be 6-2. With his recent acquisition of Larry Fitzgerald his team approaches god-like status and has the ability to sweep over his next 5 opponents. The Vicious Rabbits also have a better team than their record indicates, but they are over matched this week. FF's WR's and RB's should score at least 80 points between them. A big performance by Rodgers should get the Firemen to at least 160 this week, but I expect even more. Forte's Firemen win 175-135.

Calamitous Intent(6) vs. Deviations(10)
This is a critical game for Calamitous Intent, who are just barely holding on to a playoff spot. They are going to end the season against 4 of the best teams in the league, and will be lucky to win any of those games. If they hope to make the playoffs they will have to win this week's game against the Deviations.
Both teams are looking strong, with favorable match ups all around. I think it will come down to Matt Ryan vs. Kurt Warner. With Matt Ryan's recent struggles and against the 2nd best pass defense, it shouldn't be close. Deviations win 145-120.

Dallas Dwarf Tossers(1) vs. Da Boyz(9)
The Da Boyz are in desperate straights. They have won every other game since the beginning of the season, but that pattern is set to be broken on Sunday. Da Boyz have only garnered more than 120 points in three games this season, and they'll need to do it again if they wish to beat the unbeaten DDT. The player match ups should not give Da Boyz much hope, though Jacoby Jones may see more throws now that Owen Daniels is out. DDT's match ups aren't bad but he may be kept below 140 this week, giving his opponent a chance. Dallas Dwarf Tossers win 140-120.

Teh Peeled Bananas(2) vs. Topeka Twisters(8)
This should be a high scoring affair. Payton Manning against the hapless Houston defense; MJD against the KC chiefs; Nate Burleson against the lions... But Schaub should get a lot of passing chances against the Colts when Houston falls behind, and rack up a lot of points as well. While Reggie Wayne should offset some of the Manning advantage. Also, the Twisters defense looks weak this week. Teh Peeled Bananas win 190-165.

GAME OF THE WEEK:

Jedibolts(3) vs. Belichick Magnets(4)
We will find out if the Jedibolts are the real thing over the next 5 weeks, whene he faces the top 3 scoring teams in the first three weeks, the current 5th place team in week 12, and a currently underrated team to finish off the season. For the Belichick Magnets, however, this is the last challenging team they will face until the playoffs.
The San Diego Chargers are up against the New York Giants at home, which does not bode well for their passing game; Rivers, Gates, and Jackson's numbers may suffer as a result. Hines Ward is also playing against the Broncos this week who may hold down his numbers as well.
For the Belichick Magnets: Drew Brees, Johnson, and Miller also face tough defenses. But Ray Rice and Justin Forsett could have big games against their opponents, and giving the Magnets a small edge. Belichick Magnets win 140-130.

[-Jrabbit]

Man, what a bust of a draft pick. Bye bye Bob Sanders.

Most defenders are wasted draft picks. Other than a handful of stud LBs and KR/CB types, there's very little separation among defenders in the long run. So I don't get attached. I lost 2 of my supposed top 3 defenders (Josh Wilson, Urlacher) to injury in Week 1.

Couldn't care less.