Fantasy Football Discussion II

[Ben Kenobi]

That's not saying much. I love my D.

[EPW]

1. 152.08.........W..........................10-3..........
2. 144.39.........W..........................6-7............
3. 123.82.........L...........................5-8............
4. 142.26.........W..........................10-3..........
5. 120.74.........W..........................6-7............
6. 162.46.........W..........................10-3..........
7. 158.52.........W..........................9-4............
8. 135.71.........W..........................8-5

Umm, I beat out 10 teams in week four and still lost.

I won both my 6-7 matches.

What this shows me is that I have a worse record than I should, assuming 6-7/7-6 are identical due to the fact that we have an odd number of teams. I should be 7-1.

Thing to note, I have never finished worse than 9th in any week. IIRC, I'm the most consistant team. Never had a week under 120, and that was with 5 offensive starters out. I also have a low 'ceiling' with 162. My variance is only 42. (120-162).

You, on the other hand are far more erratic with a 110 week, and a 200 week. You've won a week when you were outclassed, and lost when you beat out 10 other teams.

It's interesting, the result of this Chargers 'experience' seems to show that it is less erratic rather than more erratic as some folks predicted. My points get capped but they also have a high floor.

[The "W" was a typo and didn't effect the analysis.]

You have to be kidding me. The fact that you have only gone 6-7 and 7-6 in weeks that you have won, shows that you have played weaker teams and/or have gotten lucky.As snoopy says, the fact that even in your good weeks you lose to 3-5 teams suggests that you'll do poorly in the playoffs( and in the next 5 weeks, when you face playoff caliber teams).

I don't know what you mean by me being inconsistent. I've only had one bad week.

[snoopy369]

I definitely expect you to do well in the playoffs; and if I had to bet on someone other than myself, it would probably be you. (If I could bet on myself and were placing bets, I would only bet on myself, because I feel it's the morally right thing to do ) Consistently finishing in the top 3 or 4 of the week is a good indication that you'll do well in the playoffs.

I think there's less than a 50% chance that you win the playoffs, but it's higher than anyone else, I'd say. Odds are probably something like (without looking at playoff week NFL matchups)
33% - EPW [if you get the bye]
25% - Sloww [if he gets the bye]
15% - Zopp
15% - me
8% - Jag
4% - the 6th playoff team [Berz or Guynemer, most likely]

Basically on the principle of EPW's team is very solid and has several high-scoring players; Sloww probably gets the bye, and that gives you a good chance right there [25% = 50/50 chance of winning each playoff game, which is probably in the right ballpark]; Zopp has Drew Brees Power, which can be unbeatable in some weeks; I have a pretty good all around team, and CJ can win some weeks for me; Jag has some potentially high scoring players, like McNabb, but I doubt he'll put three solid weeks together unless Forte and Jacobs figure things out; and whomever's left will be, well, left.

[Ben Kenobi]

Man, Snoopy doesn't even consider me playoff worthy.

So what, I have a 1 percent chance of winning?

I'll put 10 bucks on myself than. You up for it?

[EPW]

I think you are playoff worthy, but at the 5th or 6th seed rather than the 3rd. Of course, in the playoffs anything can happen.

[Zopperoni]

We'll see how things pan out

I just had a look and apparently, I have a lot of #4's in scoring: #4 WR (DeSean Jackson), #4 RB (Ray Rice), #4 TE (Heath Miller), and #4 LB (Curtis Lofton)

[EPW]

Here's the analysis for all the teams:

Dallas Dwarf Tossers
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 137.53.........W..........................6-7..........
2. 161.98.........W..........................9-4............
3. 144.02.........W..........................8-5............
4. 158.10.........W..........................12-1..........
5. 182.49.........W..........................12-1............
6. 144.01.........W..........................6-7..........
7. 187.27.........W..........................13-0............
8. 147.55.........W..........................9-4............
.....................8-0........................75-29........
....................1.000........................7 2.1.........

Teh Peeled Bananas
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 135.99.........W..........................4-9..........
2. 161.98.........L...........................10-3............
3. 166.90.........W..........................12-1............
4. 110.06.........L...........................1-12..........
5. 208.48.........W..........................13-0............
6. 183.18.........W..........................11-2..........
7. 175.81.........W..........................12-1............
8. 159.22.........W..........................11-2............
.....................6-2........................74-30........
.....................750.........................7 1.1.........

Jedibolts
1. 152.08.........W..........................10-3..........
2. 144.39.........W..........................5-8............
3. 123.82.........L...........................5-8............
4. 142.26.........L...........................10-3..........
5. 120.74.........W..........................6-7............
6. 162.46.........W..........................10-3..........
7. 158.52.........W..........................9-4............
8. 135.71.........W..........................8-5...........
.....................6-2........................63-41.........
......................750.......................60 .5..........

Belichick Magnets
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 156.12.........W..........................11-2..........
2. 180.94.........W..........................13-0............
3. 121.48.........L...........................4-9............
4. 128.40.........L...........................8-5..........
5. 129.37.........W..........................8-5............
6. 199.96.........W..........................13-0..........
7. 116.22.........L...........................4-9............
8. 163.12.........W..........................12-1............
.....................5-3........................73-31........
......................625........................7 0.1.........

Mountain Goats
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 171.06.........W..........................13-0..........
2. 147.03.........W..........................7-6............
3. 146.69.........W..........................10-3............
4. 183.97.........W..........................13-0..........
5. 114.08.........L...........................3-10............
6. 118.73.........L...........................3-10..........
7. 110.74.........L...........................2-11............
8. 149.15.........W..........................10-3............
.....................5-3........................61-43........
......................625........................5 8.6.........

Calamitous Intent
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 161.26.........W..........................12-1..........
2. 137.25.........W..........................4-9............
3. 85.71...........L...........................0-13............
4. 118.25.........L...........................3-10..........
5. 116.96.........L...........................4-9............
6. 152.30.........W..........................8-5..........
7. 130.87.........W..........................6-7............
8. 125.61.........W..........................6-7............
.......................5-3........................43-61........
.......................625........................ 41.3.........

Forte's Fireman
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 144.86.........L...........................7-6...........
2. 167.99.........W..........................11-2............
3. 120.21.........L...........................3-10............
4. 148.91.........W..........................11-2..........
5. 117.19.........L...........................5-8............
6. 151.82.........L...........................7-6............
7. 139.14.........W..........................7-6............
8. 191.98.........W..........................13-0............
........................4-4.........................64-40.........
........................500....................... ..61.5............

Topeka Twisters
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 136.89.........L...........................5-8...........
2. 129.77.........L...........................3-10............
3. 169.06.........W..........................13-0............
4. 125.82.........W..........................6-7..........
5. 174.46.........W..........................11-2............
6. 137.95.........W..........................4-9............
7. 113.15.........L...........................3-10............
8. 115.83.........L...........................3-10............
.....................4-4........................48-56.........
.....................500........................46 .1............

Da Boyz
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 149.52.........W..........................9-4...........
2. 113.18.........L...........................1-12............
3. 96.45..........W...........................2-11............
4. 118.80.........L............................4-9..........
5. 108.59.........W..........................1-11............
6. 107.51.........L...........................1-11............
7. 175.49.........W..........................11-2............
8. 125.34.........L...........................5-8............
.....................4-4........................34-70.........
.....................500........................32 .6............

Deviations
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 127.42.........L...........................3-10...........
2. 146.87.........L...........................6-7............
3. 127.48.........L...........................6-7............
4. 113.88.........L...........................2-11..........
5. 152.18.........W..........................10-3............
6. 186.99.........W..........................12-1............
7. 152.59.........W..........................8-5............
8. 84.58...........L...........................0-13............
.....................3-5........................47-57.........
.....................375........................45 .1............

Vicious Rabbits
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 86.78...........L...........................0-13...........
2. 147.34.........L...........................8-5............
3. 159.38.........W..........................11-2............
4. 132.39.........W..........................9-4..........
5. 109.37.........L...........................2-11............
6. 141.15.........L...........................5-8............
7. 162.89.........L...........................10-3............
8. 133.25.........L...........................7-6............
.....................2-6........................52-52.........
.....................250........................50 .0............

Detroit Deity Duo
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 145.82.........L...........................8-5...........
2. 114.49.........L...........................2-11............
3. 144.43.........W..........................9-4............
4. 128.07.........W..........................7-6..........
5. 150.25.........L...........................9-4............
6. 159.65.........L...........................9-4............
7. 128.57.........L...........................5-8............
8. 99.91...........L...........................1-12............
.....................2-6........................50-54.........
.....................250........................48 .1............

Hairball Express
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 109.79.........L...........................2-11...........
2. 173.15.........W..........................12-1............
3. 130.19.........L...........................7-6............
4. 120.58.........W..........................5-8..........
5. 128.22.........L...........................7-6............
6. 118.07.........L...........................2-11............
7. 82.97...........L...........................0-13............
8. 117.18.........L...........................4-9............
.....................2-6........................39-65.........
.....................250........................36 .5............

The Priapic Love WoW
Week...........Actual Outcome........Weekly Record
1. 89.73..........L............................1-12...........
2. 93.47..........L............................0-13............
3. 93.05..........L............................1-12............
4. 85.53..........L............................0-13..........
5. 104.27.........L...........................0-13............
6. 100.04.........L...........................0-13............
7. 88.83...........L...........................1-12............
8. 108.54.........L...........................2-11............
.....................0-8........................5-99.........
.....................000........................04 .8............

If I didn't make any mistakes above, these would be the adjusted standings. Tie Breaker is total points scored.

Adjusted Standing
...Team(change in rank).........Adj.W/L....Adj.W/L Pct.....
1. Dallas Dwarf Tossers..........75-29........72.1............
2. Teh Peeled Bananas...........74-30........71.1............
3. Belichick Magnets(+)..........73-31........70.1............
4. Forte's Firemen(+3)............64-40........61.5.............
5. JediBolts(-2).....................63-41........60.5............
6. Mountain Goats(-).............61-43........58.6...........
7. Vicious Rabbits(+4)............52-52........50.0..........
8. Detroit Deity Duo(+4).........50-54........48.1............
9. Topeka Twisters(-)............48-56........46.1..........
10. Deviations.......................47-57........45.1..........
11. Calamitous Intent(-5)........43-61........41.3.........
12. Hairball Express(+)............39-65........37.5........
13. Da Boyz(-4).....................34-70........32.6.........
14. The Priapic Love WoW........5-99.........04.8.......

[Ben Kenobi]

Interesting. DDD and JRabbit should both be 5-3 right now.

[EPW]

Top 25 Scoring Games

...Score................Team...............Week... .
.1. 208.48.....Teh Peeled Bananas.......5......
.2. 199.96.....Belichick Magnets..........6......
.3. 191.98.....Forte's Firemen.............7......
.4. 187.27.....Dallas Dwarf Tossers......7......
.5. 186.99.....Deviations....................6......
.6. 183.97.....Mountain Goats.............4......
.7. 183.18.....Teh Peeled Bananas.......6......
.8. 182.49.....Dallas Dwarf Tossers......5......
.9. 180.94.....Belichick Magnets..........2......
10. 175.81....Teh Peeled Bananas.......7......
11. 175.49....Da Boyz.......................7......
12. 174.46....Topeka Twisters............5......
13. 173.15....Hairball Express.............2......
14. 171.06....Mountain Goats.............1......
15. 169.06....Topeka Twisters............3......
16. 167.99....Forte's Firemen.............2......
17. 166.90....Teh Peeled Bananas.......3......
18. 163.12....Belichick Magnets..........8......
19. 162.89....Vicious Rabbits..............7.....(Loss)
20. 162.46....Jedibolts......................6.....
21. 161.98....Teh Peeled Bananas.......5.....(Loss)
22. 161.26....Calamitous Intent..........1.....
23. 159.65....Detroit Deity Duo...........5.....(Loss)
24. 159.38....Vicious Rabbits..............3.....
25. 159.22....Teh Peeled Bananas.......8.....

[-Jrabbit]

Interesting. DDD and JRabbit should both be 5-3 right now.

No, I "could" be 5-3. But my team is mediocre (see total points) and hasn't been particularly fortunate. So I'm 2-6 and not complaining. It's obviously not my year.

It's all my own doing. Of my first ten draft picks, only one has met expectations. (Position rank by pts/week)

1. SJackson (#15 RB) -- ranks as RB2 in a 14-team league
2. Megatron (#37 WR) + inj -- ranks as WR3
3. RGrant (#19 RB) -- another RB2
4. Cutler (#10 QB) - equal to draft pos -- legit QB1, which is sad
5. BMarshall (#21 WR) - better lately -- ranks as WR2
6. GOlsen (#17 TE) -- very disappointing; was supposed to pair with Cutler
7. Josh Wilson - no + inj
8. LEvans - hell no
9. EGraham - LOL
10. DHester (#19 WR) -- ranks as WR2

My best contributors:
Percy Harvin - 13th round (#3 WR)
Vernon Davis - 17th round (#2 TE)
Steve Smith - 18th round (#11 WR)

Arguably, only Josh Wilson (1st defender) was drafted noticeably higher than than conventional wisdom suggested at the time of the draft. I just made some unfortunate choices of players that haven't delivered.

Thank goodness for my luck in finding a few diamonds in the late rounds or I could be dancing with DOY. Frankly, it could be worse -- I haven't been particularly hard-hit by injuries.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well make sure you have a bad week when I play you.

That would be very appreciated.

[EPW]

More Fantasy Fun Facts

Standings by Yahoo Projections

1. Teh Peeled Bananas..........7-1
2. Topeka Twisters...............6-2
2. Deviations.......................6-2
4. Detroit Deity Duo.............5-3
4. Forte's Firemen................5-3
4. Calamitous Intent.............5-3
4. Belichick Magnets.............5-3
8. Mountain Goats...............4-4
8. Vicious Rabbits................4-4
10. Jedibolts.......................3-5
10. Hairball Express..............3-5
12. Dallas Dwarf Tossers.......2-6
13. Da Boyz........................1-7
14. The Priapic Love WoW.....0-8

I suppose it could be worse.

[SlowwHand]

This reminds of something involving chickens and eggs and when they're hatched.

[-Jrabbit]

I remain absolutely mystified by some of the trades in IDP this year.
(I speak as a 2-6 manager, not as commish.)

[-Jrabbit]

So EPW, you're saying Sloww is 4th in overall scoring, was 2nd in your "if you played everyone every week" meme, yet manages to be 2-6 via projections?

Sounds like solid support for my "Yahoo projections are goofy" theory.

Also sounds like you have even more time on your hands than Ben.

Carry on.