MLB - 2010 Spring Training!

[Arrian]

Perhaps. I do think he's the #3.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

He finished #3 in total votes, but #1 in 1st place votes.

And if he had 2 less wins, Carpenter (who had 17 wins) probably wins in a landslide.

[Arrian]

Maybe. Whether or not he should is another matter. Carp had the ERA. Lincecum had the better peripherals, though, didn't he?

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Not entirely. Lincecum had the strikeouts, but Carpenter was far better in not giving up walks (Carpenter had a better WHIP).

In Win Probabilty Added, Carpenter finishes above Lincecum (Greinke, of course, conquers all):

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2009

In Fielder Independant Pitching, Lincecum beats Carpenter (Greinke again, in 1st):

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0

[Sharpe]

Carpenter was left off of 2 ballots entirely - Keith Law of ESPN (who had Lincecum 1st Vasquez 2nd and Wainwright 3rd) and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus.

Admittedly he would have needed 2nd on both of those ballots to get to a tie with Lincecum and a 1st and 2nd to win.

There have been some reports that Law hates St Louis though

[Imran Siddiqui]

Law has been on Twitter deliberately sticking it to St. Louis fans, so I can buy the hates St. Louis report.

[Stuie]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....ap/index.html

The Phillies, smartly, decline Pedro Feliz's option for next year. It would be very interesting to see how good this team can be with a 3B who can actually hit.

If they REALLY wanted to get nasty, they would open up the checkbook and get Chone Figgins. Insta-win. But all the sports radio "gurus" in this area say that's not going to happen. So it's either DeRosa or Polanco (or preferably both - with DeRosa as super-sub getting lots of playing time split between 2B - where Utley really needs to rest now and then, SS, 3B and LF). But I doubt DeRosa would "settle" for that.

[Arrian]

Beltre would be a solid choice for the Phils, I think. Great defense, better bat than Seattle makes it look like.

Figgins would be a real nice upgrade. Added bonus: Put Figgins in the leadoff spot and move Rollins down in the order. Since Figgins is a speedy type, the media won't go nuts over it.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

KLaw doesn't hate St. Louis. KLaw hates people who go ape**** on him for stupid reasons. I think you can argue with his Vasquez #2 vote, but there is a right way and a wrong way. The right way involves countering Law's arguments for Vasquez, while keeping in perspective that Law had Carpenter 4th.

Also, having looked at this some more, Dan Haren had a case to be in the top 3 too. Not that Will Carrol really made the case well (his explanation of how he arrived at his vote pained me).

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Carpenter being 4th is utterly stupid, especially since he had Wainwright 3rd.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Joe Mauer wins the AL MVP, and the BBWAA is impressing me this year by being a bit smarter than usual:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091115&content_id=7669440&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Imran Siddiqui]

This is a great article a few days ago in the NYT about sabermetrics and Brian Bannister:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/sports/baseball/22awards.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

[Arrian]

Carpenter being 4th is utterly stupid, especially since he had Wainwright 3rd.

Utterly stupid? For valuing Wainright's extra innings over Carpenter's better performance on a rate basis? I happen to personally think Law overvalued those extra innings a bit, but utterly stupid? No.

Utterly stupid = 1st place MVP vote for Miguel Cabrera.
Odd, possibly mistaken = Wainright 3rd, Carpenter 4th in Cy Young.

At least in both cases the winner was a fine choice. So far, they've got the major awards right (GGs, well, yeah, um...). There were some odd votes in there, but the winners they got right, IMO (though one can certainly argue that Greinke had a case for ALMVP. I wouldn't, because I'd prefer to separate out the pitchers, but that's not the way it's done now, formally).

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yes, utterly stupid. Even with those extra innings, Wainwright's WAR is basically equal to Carpenter's (he was 0.1 above Carpenter). So what would attribute rating Wainwright higher?

[Ming]

I guess I don''t see a problem with somebody voting Wainwright over Carpenter.

Yeah, if you look at all the hardcore stats, one could probably argue that he pitched better... but then again.

Waiinwright had the most wins.
Imran's comment...

And if he had 2 less wins, Carpenter (who had 17 wins) probably wins in a landslide.

is kind of silly... If Carpenter, or any other pitcher, had had two less wins, they would have looked worse as well. The fact is, Wainwright DID HAVE those 19 wins.

Wainwright also started 21% more games... Pitched 21% more innings... had 47% more strike outs.
His ERA was still solid 2.63, even though it was about 17% higher than Carpenters.

Maybe if Carpenter had pitched a full season, he would have had a stronger case. But he didn't, and it seems some people downgraded him for that, and the lesser number of wins.

I don't see any real "outrage" here. He had the most wins, and pitched great for the FULL YEAR. He also finished 4th in terms of total strike outs. Both of these are sexy stats that get attention. Sure Imran can point to all those other wonderful stats that are indeed important, and I even agree that they show in many ways that Carpenter had a good year... but frankly, the Cy Young is VOTED on. Everybody has a different opinion on what they think is important. Maybe some day, "the experts" will come up with a magical formula based on all the different stats, and stop voting on it... and just use a computer to figure it out. But then again, they probably could never all come to agreement on exactly what that formula should be

Wainwright had the most wins in the League, and solid stats as well... I just don't see any reason for any "outrage".